1 - Credible Planning under Uncertainty

Summary

Section 1.1 calls attention to the prevalent research practice that studies planning with incredible certitude. Section 1.2 contrasts the conceptions of uncertainty in consequentialist and axiomatic decision theory. Section 1.3 presents the formal structure of consequentialist theory, which is used throughout the book. Section 1.4 explains the prevalent econometric characterization of uncertainty, which distinguishes identification problems and statistical imprecision. Section 1.5 discusses the distinct perspectives on social welfare expressed in various strands of research on planning.