I - A Decade of Change in the Asian-Pacific Region: The Energy Outlook and Emerging Supply/Demand Imbalance

Summary

The 1980s ushered in what many analysts refer to as the “Pacific Century”. The region is seen as the emerging centre of gravity for the world economy, and even if economic growth slows during the 1990s, there is wide acceptance of the idea that the region will continue to be one of the fastest-growing in the world. The 1980s witnessed spectacular growth rates in the Asian-Pacific region, the rising economic power of Japan, an unprecedented opening of China's economy, the emergence of the “Four Tigers” or the “Little Dragons” (Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong), a rapid growth of exports from the region — in short, remarkable economic success and an increase in entrepreneurialism and the free-market philosophy. Even the United States, which historically has been Atlantic-oriented, sat up and took notice.

While the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is not necessarily absolute, energy is a required input for economic activity and trade. Energy demand growth in the Asian-Pacific region, accordingly, has been rapid. At this point in history, oil and economic growth are so interrelated that changes in one invariably have major repercussions on the other. During the coming decade, continued economic growth is foreseen for the Asian-Pacific region, coupled with the fastest rate of oil-demand growth of any region on earth. Pressure will come to bear on the regional oil and gas markets, since demand growth will take place concurrently with a decline in the availability of local, low-sulphur crudes. The region will become even more dependent on imports of Middle Eastern crude, which will result in a higher-sulphur crude slate. Moreover, we anticipate that the existing and planned refinery complex will lack the capacity and the flexibility to satisfy fully product demand. The consequence will be a higher level of refined product imports.

The problem facing the regional market is one of both quantity and quality. Petroleum product specifications are tightening significantly, due in part to a rising environmental consciousness.