9 - A Statistical Analysis of Rebel Goals and Rebel Governance

Summary

This chapter uses an original dataset of rebel governance historically and globally to statistically analyze the strength and robustness of the association between rebel goals and rebel governance. The chapter begins with a preliminary test for selection that assesses whether rebel goals are systematically correlated with structural factors that might ease rebel groups’ provision of governance such that rebel goals and governance appear to be systematically correlated when this correlation is an artifact of some latent variable. The results of this analysis suggest that rebel goals are not associated with other factors that might make it easier for rebels with revolutionary goals to implement challenging governance projects. Next, it presents the multivariate regression results of rebel goals on governance. Results are consistent with expectations and robust to a number of different specifications. Third, this chapter examines whether rebels who introduced governance to a broader array of people were more likely to be victorious. The results indicate that more extensive governance confers no military advantage, further suggesting that rebels’ governance is not necessarily militarily advantageous.