8 - IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

Summary

The foregoing analysis has considered the implications of Japan's expanding economic role and influence in the Asia-Pacific region from the perspective of the dynamic interaction of economic, political and security factors. The objective of the analysis was to gain a clearer picture of the systemic effects of the relative rise of Japan's role vis-à-vis the United States, and to develop alternative scenarios for Japan's future role in the region.

Any discussion of specific implications for the future structure of economic, political and security relationships in Asia and the Western Pacific, and for the interests of various Asia-Pacific countries and sub-regions is bound to be controversial. The following discussion is intended to suggest some tentative implications for the future of the region that would appear to follow from the foregoing analysis, within the stated frame of reference, i.e. the respective roles of the United States and Japan. A different frame of reference might yield an alternative or even competing set of implications.

Evolving dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region

Several basic generalizations concerning the roles of the United States and Japan in the changing dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region appear to follow from past experience and current trends.

First, it cannot be assumed that current power relationships in the Asia-Pacific region are immutable or that the nations of the region will continue to strike the same balance in their security and economic policies. The end of the Cold War has had significant impact on the political and security calculations of many countries in and outside the region, and has caused economic relations in many cases to be viewed in a new light. In particular, U.S. relations with Japan and other East Asian allies have come under strain due to trade friction and a weakening sense of shared security concerns.

Second, this revised relationship between economics and geopolitics appears to challenge some basic assumptions about the region's economic future.