Book contents
- Keynes’s Economic Consequences of the Peace after 100 Years
- Keynes’s Economic Consequences of the Peace after 100 Years
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Plates
- Figures
- Tables
- Contributors
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Lessons of Keynes’s Economic Consequences in a Turbulent Century
- 2 The Making of a Classic: Keynes and the Origins of The Economic Consequences of the Peace
- 3 Keynes’s Economic Consequences (1919)
- 4 “Too Bad to Be True”: Swedish Economists on Keynes’s The Economic Consequences of the Peace and German Reparations, 1919–29
- 5 Revisionism as Intellectual-Political Vindication, or the French Receptions of Consequences after the Two World Wars (1919–1946)
- 6 Between Cambridge, Paris, and Amsterdam
- 7 Keynes, the Transfer Problem, and Reparations
- 8 The Speculative Consequences of the Peace
- 9 Why Was Keynes Opposed to Reparations and a Carthaginian Peace?
- 10 One Case Where The Economic Consequences of the Peace Mattered
- 11 Keynes and International Trade Politics after the First World War
- 12 Gold, International Monetary Cooperation, and the Tripartite Agreement of 1936
- 13 Exchange Rates, Tariffs and Prices in 1930s Britain
- 14 “Unusual, Unstable, Complicated, Unreliable and Temporary”: Reinterpreting the Ebb and Flow of Globalization
- 15 Keynes’s Arc of Discovery
- 16 Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, and Popular Perceptions of the First World War
- Index
- Plate Section (PDF Only)
- References
1 - Lessons of Keynes’s Economic Consequences in a Turbulent Century
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 14 December 2023
Book contents
- Keynes’s Economic Consequences of the Peace after 100 Years
- Keynes’s Economic Consequences of the Peace after 100 Years
- Copyright page
- Contents
- Plates
- Figures
- Tables
- Contributors
- Preface
- Acknowledgements
- 1 Lessons of Keynes’s Economic Consequences in a Turbulent Century
- 2 The Making of a Classic: Keynes and the Origins of The Economic Consequences of the Peace
- 3 Keynes’s Economic Consequences (1919)
- 4 “Too Bad to Be True”: Swedish Economists on Keynes’s The Economic Consequences of the Peace and German Reparations, 1919–29
- 5 Revisionism as Intellectual-Political Vindication, or the French Receptions of Consequences after the Two World Wars (1919–1946)
- 6 Between Cambridge, Paris, and Amsterdam
- 7 Keynes, the Transfer Problem, and Reparations
- 8 The Speculative Consequences of the Peace
- 9 Why Was Keynes Opposed to Reparations and a Carthaginian Peace?
- 10 One Case Where The Economic Consequences of the Peace Mattered
- 11 Keynes and International Trade Politics after the First World War
- 12 Gold, International Monetary Cooperation, and the Tripartite Agreement of 1936
- 13 Exchange Rates, Tariffs and Prices in 1930s Britain
- 14 “Unusual, Unstable, Complicated, Unreliable and Temporary”: Reinterpreting the Ebb and Flow of Globalization
- 15 Keynes’s Arc of Discovery
- 16 Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, and Popular Perceptions of the First World War
- Index
- Plate Section (PDF Only)
- References
Summary
Just over a century old, John Maynard Keynes’s The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919) remains a seminal document of the twentieth century. At the time, the book was a prescient analysis of political events to come. In the decades that followed, this still controversial text became an essential ingredient in the unfolding of history. In this essay, we review the arc of experience since 1919 from the perspective of Keynes’s influence and his changing understanding of economics, politics, and geopolitics. We identify how he, his ideas, and this text became key reference points during times of turbulence as actors sought to manage a range of shocks. Near the end of his life, Keynes would play a central role in planning the world economy’s reconstruction after World War II. We argue that the “global order” that evolved since then, marked by increasingly polarized societies, leaves the community of nations ill prepared to provide key global public goods or to counter critical collective threats.
Keywords
- Type
- Chapter
- Information
- Keynes's Economic Consequences of the Peace after 100 YearsPolemics and Policy, pp. 1 - 56Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2024
References
Abdelal, Rawi. Capital Rules: The Construction of Global Finance. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2009.Google Scholar
Alden, Edward. Failure to Adjust: How Americans Got Left behind in the Global Economy. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2017.Google Scholar
Backhouse, Roger E. and Bateman, Bradley W.. “Inside Out: Keynes’s Use of the Public Sphere.” History of Political Economy 45 (Supplement 1, 2013): 68–91.Google Scholar
Bainville, Jacques. Les conséquences politiques de la paix. Paris: Librairie Arthème Fayard, 1920.Google Scholar
Bairoch, Paul. “European Trade Policy, 1815–1914.” In Mathias, Peter and Pollard, Sidney, eds., Cambridge Economic History of Europe, vol. VIII, The Industrial Economies: The Development of Economic and Social Policies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989.Google Scholar
Bell, Archibald C. A History of the Blockade of Germany and of the Countries Associated with Her in the Great War, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and Turkey, 1914–1918. London: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, 1937.Google Scholar
Berger, Helge and Ritschl, Albrecht. “Germany and the Political Economy of the Marshall Plan, 1947–52: A Revisionist View.” In Eichengreen, Barry, ed., Europe’s Post-War Recovery. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995.Google Scholar
Blickle, Kristian S. “Pandemics Change Cities: Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism in Germany, 1918–1933.” Staff Report 922, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 2020.Google Scholar
Bordo, Michael D. and Orphanides, Athanasios, eds. The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2013.Google Scholar
Brown, Wendy. In the Ruins of Neoliberalism: The Rise of Antidemocratic Politics in the West. New York: Columbia University Press, 2019.Google Scholar
Carroll, Sean B. “Mission: Save the Environment.” Project Syndicate, July 15, 2016. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/smallpox-eradication-global-cooperation-by-sean-b--carroll-2016-07, accessed September 26, 2021.Google Scholar
Carter, Zachary D. The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy, and the Life of John Maynard Keynes. New York: Random House, 2020.Google Scholar
Chinn, Menzie D. and Ito, Hiro. “What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions.” Journal of Development Economics 81 (October 2006): 163–192.Google Scholar
Clavin, Patricia. “The Ben Pimlott Memorial Lecture 2019 – Britain and the Making of Global Order after 1919.” Twentieth Century British History 31 (September 2020): 340–359.Google Scholar
Clavin, Patricia. Securing the World Economy: The Reinvention of the League of Nations, 1920–1946. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013.Google Scholar
Clavin, Patricia and Wessels, Jens-Wilhelm. “Another Golden Idol? The League of Nations’ Gold Delegation and the Great Depression, 1929–1932.” International History Review 26 (December 2004): 765–795.Google Scholar
Coogan, John W. “The Short-War Illusion Resurrected: The Myth of Economic Warfare as the British Schlieffen Plan.” Journal of Strategic Studies 38 (7, 2015): 1045–1064.Google Scholar
Cooper, Richard N. “International Cooperation in Public Health as a Prologue to Macroeconomic Cooperation.” In Cooper, Richard N., Eichengreen, Barry, Holtham, Gerald, Putnam, Robert D., and Henning, C. Randall, eds., Can Nations Agree? Issues in International Economic Cooperation. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1989.Google Scholar
Corsetti, Giancarlo, Martin, Philippe, and Pesenti, Paolo. “Varieties and the Transfer Problem.” Journal of International Economics 89 (January 2013): 1–12.Google Scholar
Cox, Mary Elizabeth. Hunger in War and Peace: Women and Children in Germany, 1914–1924. Oxford Historical Monographs. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deardorff, Alan V. “Review of Essays in International Economic Theory: Jagdish Bhagwati.” Journal of International Economics 22 (February 1987): 183–188.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry. “Facing Up to the Democratic Recession.” Journal of Democracy 26 (January 2015): 141–155.Google Scholar
Dietzel, Heinrich. “The German Tariff Controversy.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 3 (May 1903): 365–416.Google Scholar
Dimand, Robert W. “Emily Greene Balch, Political Economist.” American Journal of Economics and Sociology 70 (April 2011): 464–479.Google Scholar
Dimand, Robert W. “‘Perhaps I’m a Don Quixote but I’m Trying to Be a Paul Revere’: Irving Fisher as a Public Intellectual.” History of Political Economy 45 (Supplement 1, 2013): 20–37.Google Scholar
Duffy, Gavan. “The British Empire’s Southern Dominions and the Emergence of the League of Nations ‘C’ Mandates, 1914–1926: Origins, Administration, and International Oversight.” Ph.D. Dissertation, National University of Ireland, Galway, 2019.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry. The European Economy since 1945: Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry. “Lessons from the Marshall Plan.” World Development Report 2011 Background Case Note. World Bank, April 2010.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry. “Versailles: The Economic Legacy.” International Affairs 95 (January 2019): 7–24.Google Scholar
Fidler, David P. “The Globalization of Public Health: The First 100 Years of International Health Diplomacy.” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 79 (9, 2001): 842–849. www.who.int/bulletin/archives/79(9)842.pdf, accessed September 26, 2021.Google Scholar
Fourcade, Marion. Economists and Societies: Discipline and Profession in the United States, Britain, and France, 1890s to 1990s. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009.Google Scholar
Gaddis, John Lewis. George F. Kennan: An American Life. New York: Penguin Press, 2011.Google Scholar
Galofré-Vilà, Gregori, Meissner, Christopher M., McKee, Martin, and Stuckler, David. “The Economic Consequences of the 1953 London Debt Agreement.” European Review of Economic History 23 (February 2019): 1–29.Google Scholar
Garten, Jeffrey E. Three Days at Camp David: How a Secret Meeting in 1971 Transformed the Global Economy. New York: Harper, 2021.Google Scholar
Gatrell, Peter. The Making of the Modern Refugee. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerwarth, Robert and Horne, John, eds. War in Peace: Paramilitary Violence after the Great War. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012.Google Scholar
Ghosh, Atish R., Kim, Jun I., and Qureshi, Mahvash S.. “What’s in a Name? That Which We Call Capital Controls.” Economic Policy 35 (January 2020): 147–208.Google Scholar
Guinnane, Timothy W. “Financial Vergangenheitsbewältigung: The 1953 London Debt Agreement.” Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper 880, Yale University, July 2015 (revised).Google Scholar
Haass, Richard. “The World 9/11 Made.” Project Syndicate, September 9, 2021. www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/how-9-11-remade-the-world-order-by-richard-haass-2021-09, accessed September 26, 2021.Google Scholar
Hayek, Friedrich A. von. “Inflation and Unemployment.” New York Times, November 15, 1974.Google Scholar
Helleiner, Eric. States and the Reemergence of Global Finance. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1994.Google Scholar
Ikenberry, G. John. “A World Economy Restored: Expert Consensus and the Anglo-American Postwar Settlement.” International Organization 46 (Winter 1992): 289–321.Google Scholar
Ikenberry, G. John. A World Safe for Democracy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2020.Google Scholar
Irwin, Douglas A. “Anticipating the Great Depression? Gustav Cassel’s Analysis of the Interwar Gold Standard.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 46 (February 2014): 199–227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
James, Harold. The End of Globalization: Lessons from the Great Depression. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2001.Google Scholar
Johnson, Elizabeth and Moggridge, Donald, eds. The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. 16: Activities 1914–1919: The Treasury and Versailles. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1978.Google Scholar
Johnson, Harry G. “The Keynesian Revolution and the Monetarist Counter-Revolution.” American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 61 (May 1971): 1–14.Google Scholar
Jonung, Lars. “Why Was Keynes Not Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize after Writing The Economic Consequences of the Peace?” Scandinavian Journal of Economics 124 (April 2022): 396–419.Google Scholar
Jordà, Òscar, Schularick, Moritz, and Taylor, Alan M.. “Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts.” In Eichenbaum, Martin S. and Parker, Jonathan A., eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, vol. 31. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2017.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. The Economic Consequences of the Peace. London: Macmillan, 1919.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. London: Macmillan, 1936.Google Scholar
Kindleberger, Charles P. The World in Depression 1929–1939. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1973.Google Scholar
Krippner, Greta R. Capitalizing on Crisis: The Political Origins of the Rise of Finance. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2011.Google Scholar
Krugman, Paul R. “Differences in Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates.” European Economic Review 33 (May 1989): 1031–1046.Google Scholar
Krugman, Paul R. Has the Adjustment Process Worked? Policy Analyses in International Economics 34. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1991.Google Scholar
Lambert, Nicholas A. Planning Armageddon: British Economic Warfare and the First World War. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2012.Google Scholar
Lemmen, Sarah. “Beyond the League of Nations: Public Debates on International Relations in Czechoslovakia during the Interwar Period.” In Becker, Peter and Wheatley, Natasha, eds., Remaking Central Europe. The League of Nations and the Former Habsburg Lands. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2021.Google Scholar
Maier, Charles S. “Economic Consequences of the Peace … Social Consequences of the War” (translation of “Conseguenze economiche della guerra, conseguenze sociali della pace”). Contemporanea 12 (1, 2009): 157–163. https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/33085712, accessed October 1, 2021.Google Scholar
Mantoux, Étienne. The Carthaginian Peace; or The Economic Consequences of Mr. Keynes. London: Oxford University Press, 1946.Google Scholar
Marder, Arthur J. From the Dreadnought to Scapa Flow. London: Oxford University Press, 1961.Google Scholar
Meissner, Christopher M. “A New World Order: Explaining the International Diffusion of the Gold Standard, 1870–1913.” Journal of International Economics 66 (July 2005): 385–406.Google Scholar
Mulder, Nicholas. The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2022.Google Scholar
Mundell, Robert A. The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1971. Princeton Essays in International Finance 85, May 1971.Google Scholar
Mundell, Robert A. “Keynes and Ohlin on the Transfer Problem.” In Findlay, Ronald, Jonung, Lars, and Lundahl, Mats, eds., Bertil Ohlin: A Centennial Celebration, 1899–1999. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.Google Scholar
Nurkse, Ragnar. International Currency Experience: Lessons of the Inter-War Period. Geneva: Economic, Financial and Transit Department, League of Nations, 1944.Google Scholar
Obstfeld, Maurice. “Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 16 (2, 1985): 369–450.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Obstfeld, Maurice. “Globalization and Nationalism: Retrospect and Prospect.” Contemporary Economic Policy 39 (October 2021): 675–690.Google Scholar
Obstfeld, Maurice. “The Global Capital Market Reconsidered.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 37 (Winter 2021): 690–706.Google Scholar
Obstfeld, Maurice and Taylor, Alan M.. “International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 31 (Summer 2017): 3–28.Google Scholar
Papadia, Francesco and Välimäki, Tuomas. Central Banking in Turbulent Times. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pedersen, Susan. The Guardians: The League of Nations and the Crisis of Empire. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peter, Matthias. John Maynard Keynes und die britische Deutschlandpolitik: Machtanspruch und ökonomische Realität im Zeitalter der Weltkriege 1919–1946. Studien zur Zeitgeschichte. Berlin: De Gruyter, 2015.Google Scholar
Rappard, William E. “Review of The Carthaginian Peace; or The Economic Consequences of Mr. Keynes.” American Political Science Review 40 (October 1946): 983–985.Google Scholar
Reinhart, Carmen M., Reinhart, Vincent, and Trebesch, Christoph. “Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2016.” American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 106 (May 2016): 574–580.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reinisch, Jessica and White, Elizabeth, eds. The Disentanglement of Populations: Migration, Expulsion and Displacement in Post-War Europe, 1944–9. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riley, Barry. The Political History of American Food Aid: An Uneasy Benevolence. New York: Oxford University Press, 2017.Google Scholar
Rockström, Johan, et al. “A Safe Operating Space for Humanity.” Nature 461 (2009): 472–475.Google Scholar
Rosenfeld, Siegfried. “Volkszählung und Volksgesundheit (I).” Volksgesundheit 5 (1931): 97–115.Google Scholar
Ruggie, John Gerard. “International Regimes, Transactions, and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order.” International Organization 36 (Spring 1982): 379–415.Google Scholar
Ruggie, John Gerard. “Multilateralism: The Anatomy of an Institution.” In Ruggie, John Gerard, ed., Multilateralism Matters: The Theory and Praxis of an Institutional Form. New York: Columbia University Press, 1993.Google Scholar
Samuelson, Paul A. “Lord Keynes and the General Theory.” Econometrica 14 (July 1946): 187–200.Google Scholar
Sandbrook, Dominic. Seasons in the Sun: The Battle for Britain, 1974–1979. London: Penguin Books, 2012.Google Scholar
Sarotte, Mary Elise. 1989: The Struggle to Create Post-Cold War Europe. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011.Google Scholar
Skidelsky, Robert. John Maynard Keynes: The Economist as Savior, 1920–1937. New York: Penguin Press, 1992.Google Scholar
Slobodian, Quinn. Globalists: The End of Empire and the Birth of Neoliberalism. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2018.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tooze, Adam. “Reassessing the Moral Economy of Post-war Reconstruction: The Terms of the West German Settlement in 1952.” Past and Present 210 (Issue suppl_6, 2011): 47–70.Google Scholar
Tooze, Adam. The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order, 1916–1931. New York: Viking, 2014.Google Scholar
Tooze, Adam. Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World. New York: Viking, 2018.Google Scholar
Tooze, Adam and Fertik, Ted. “The World Economy and the Great War.” Geschichte und Gesellschaft 40 (April–June 2014): 214–238.Google Scholar
Viner, Jacob. “Review of The Carthaginian Peace – Or the Economic Consequences of Mr. Keynes.” Journal of Modern History 19 (March 1947): 69–70.Google Scholar
Williamson, John. “Comment on Robert A. Mundell, ‘The Great Exchange Rate Controversy: Trade Balances and the International Monetary System’.” In Bergsten, C. Fred, ed., International Adjustment and Financing: The Lessons of 1985–1991. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1991.Google Scholar
- 1
- Cited by