Myanmar's Foreign Policy under President U Thein Sein: Non-aligned and Diversified

Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Given Myanmar's strategic location and the wider great power competition in Southeast Asia, how the country positions itself vis-à-vis the major powers in the reform era currently underway will have considerable bearing for the international politics of Southeast Asia.

• Historically, Myanmar's leaders have preferred an independent foreign policy that has also been couched in terms of neutralism and non-alignment.

• Following considerable tension between the stated principle of non-alignment and the practice of Myanmar's foreign policy under the SLORC/SPDC regime given U.S. pressure on Naypyitaw especially in the mid-2000s, Myanmar's threat perceptions vis-à-vis Washington have waned with the shift to the pragmatic, principled and calibrated engagement as favoured by President Obama. The Myanmar government under Thein Sein pursued a non-aligned foreign policy both in declaratory and practical terms.

• While Myanmar did not pursue strategic alignment with any of the major and regional powers (China, India, Japan, Russia and the United States) under Thein Sein, the country continued to have or was developing security partnerships with all. More meaningful security cooperation with India over anti-Indian insurgents was agreed upon. Embryonic security partnerships were also being developed with Tokyo and Washington.

• With Japan in particular strengthening its economic presence in Myanmar since 2011 largely through generous economic assistance, Myanmar was able to halt the ever-growing economic dependence on China that was evident during the SPDC period.

• Myanmar's relations with China plummeted to their lowest point for at least three decades over the 2015 Kokang insurgency. Bilateral relations have yet to substantially recover.

• Myanmar's ties with the United States advanced significantly but economic relations have not been that significantly advanced, not least due to continuing sanctions.

• Washington will want to support the new NLD-led government in relation to the various political challenges that Myanmar still faces, while Myanmar should be expected to continue with a non-aligned, independent and active foreign policy.