5 - Asia-Pacific Political and Security Dynamics

Summary

We are in a period of a historic redistribution of global power to Asia. But it will be a prolonged transition, taking up a good part of the twenty-first century. Both China and India still have a long journey ahead before achieving their full potential in terms of standards of living, quality of governance and institutions. The road ahead will not be without pitfalls and setbacks.

In this paper I examine briefly some of the political and security dynamics at work today in this changing Asia-Pacific region.

The Role of the United States

With a US$12 trillion technology-driven competitive economy, a global military reach and unique influence in the key global institutions, the United States will remain the pre-eminent power for the foreseeable future. For these reasons it will probably continue to play a key role in Asian affairs for a long time, even after China overtakes it in sheer GDP size.

The United States is in a unique position to help shape the emerging balance of power in Asia by tilting towards one party or another and by providing it economic and technological inducements. It can also influence the shape of Asian regionalism through its influence on allies like Japan and Australia.

The fundamental U.S. goal in the Asia-Pacific probably remains what it has been for the past century, that is, to prevent the domination of East Asia (now Asia) by any other power or concert of powers. In this respect Asian regionalism that excludes it poses a challenge for the United States, but as of now it seems assured by its alliances with two members of the East Asian Summit, Japan and Australia, and its developing friendship with a third, India. Further, from the American perspective, because of the conflict of interests between the major Asian players, Asian regionalism remains an uncertain venture. The present Bush Administration, when it came to power in January 2001, served notice that it was determined to maintain the pre-eminent military position of the United States in East Asia against any potential challenger, having China very much in mind.