14 - Prolonged Below-Replacement Fertility

Summary

INTRODUCTION

This chapter examines the salient features of the fertility movement below the level of replacement during a span of some thirty-seven years since 1975. In studying this long-term trend, we should bear in mind three broad groups of factors that could affect the level of fertility in Singapore. Firstly, there were the important social and economic factors that would always continue to assert a strong influence on the level of fertility. Secondly, there were the government policies and programmes that were introduced to change the course of fertility. Thirdly, there was the special influence of the Tiger Year and the Dragon Year in the twelve animal-zodiac signs of the Chinese lunar calendar.

The analysis of the fertility trend would be carried out in terms of the total fertility rate (TFR), the computation of which requires some explanation. The base female population used in the computation was derived from the distribution of the female resident population rather than the total female population, classified by five-year age groups from age 15 to 49. This is because figures for the intercensal and past censal years were only available for the resident population. Furthermore, the figures for the female resident population for the years 1991–99 were obtained from the revised estimates prepared after the 1990 Census. Another point to note was that the distribution of births by five-year age group of mothers from age 15 to 49 referred to births borne by the total female population and not by the female resident population. Birth statistics for the latter only were not available.

OVERALL FERTILITY TRENDS

After the unprecedented decline during the years up to 1975, the overall fertility in Singapore had continued to proceed downwards below the replacement level. The figures revealed that from the slightly below-replacement level of 2.08 in 1975, the total fertility rate edged up to 2.11 in the very next year but after that it moved down continuously to touch the low of 1.42 in 1986. Thereafter, the rate fluctuated somewhat but — on account of the influence of the Tiger and Dragon Years in the Chinese calendar and the effect of the population policy changes — was still below the replacement level.