III - POLITICAL OUTLOOK: Myanmar 1994-95

Summary

In its fifth year of rule, the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) continued to consolidate its hold on the country and measures to enhance the status and ensure continuity of the top military leadership were undertaken. In the mean time, SLORC's version of democratization has continued. The focus has been on the formulation of a “firm” constitution as a prelude to the transfer of power to a representative government. A constitutional convention was held in January with the overall objectives of establishing a genuine multi-party democracy, promoting justice, liberty, and equality, and instituting the military's participation in the national political leadership role of the future state. The “National Convention” deliberated on the principles underlying the state structure, political representation, and the administrative configuration. Some of these fundamental principles such as the executive presidency, the direct role of the military, and the statutory right of the military chief to assume state power in a national emergency, though endorsed by the National Convention Convening Commission, failed to win unanimous support among the participating groups. Nevertheless, when the Convention adjourned in September these principles appeared to have been established as a basis for further elaboration.

Myanmar

Land Area: 678,576 sq km

Population: 43.13 million (1993 estimate)

Capital: Yangon

Type of Government: Military

Head of State: Chairman of State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), Senior General Than Shwe

Next Election: Not known

Currency Used: kyat

US$ Exchange Rate on 30 November 1993: US$1 = 6.08 kyat

On the opposition front, the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB) appears to be in disarray with two of its ministers murdered under mysterious circumstances and its foreign minister dismissed in absentia. Although its members were favourably received by officials of some Western governments in private, the parallel government did not receive any official recognition.

The government's unilateral suspension, in April 1992, of military offensives in the Karen state remains in force. On the other hand, the military component of the anti-SLORC coalition Democratic Alliance of Burma (DAB) has suffered a major set-back as the Kachin Independent Organization (KIO), its most powerful military ally, and the government announced a cease-fire in October 1993.