Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-7cvxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T22:20:42.247Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis

Evidence from Selected Emerging and Less-Developed Economies in the Asia-Pacific Region

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 July 2020

Roman Matousek
Affiliation:
Queen Mary University of London
Ole Rummel
Affiliation:
The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre

Summary

This Element provides a detailed overview of the structural changes in the Asia-Pacific region from the early 2000s onwards. It reviews the most relevant literature on this important topic. The following two research areas are explored: first, by deploying visual network analysis (VNA), we analyse cross-border interbank claims and liabilities of the individual countries located in the Asia-Pacific region. Such an analysis evaluates interbank exposures to systematically important banks within the specific market. The important advantage of VNA is that it allows us to examine the 'hierarchical' cross-country interbank contagion risk that seems to have been neglected in similar studies. Secondly, we evaluate the contagion risk to the individual countries spreading from the financial centres in Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, New York and London. The analysis unveils links and statistical factors that could be used as a key tool for detecting the potential triggers of systemic risk.
Get access
Type
Element
Information
Online ISBN: 9781108882040
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication: 30 July 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aba, L. A. (2019), ‘Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis for Papua New Guinea’. In Matousek, R (ed.), Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis. Kuala Lumpur: The SEACEN Centre, pp. 10942.Google Scholar
Adekola, A., and Sergi, B. S. (2016), Global Business Management: A Cross-Cultural Perspective. New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agenor, P.-R. (2003), ‘Benefits and Costs of International Financial Integration: Theory and Facts’, The World Economy, Vol. 26, no. 8, pp.1089–118.Google Scholar
Ahrend, R., Arnold, J and Murtin, F (2011), ‘Have More Strictly Regulated Banking Systems Fared Better during the Recent Financial Crisis?Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 399403.Google Scholar
Ahrend, R., and Goujard, A (2011), ‘Drivers of Systemic Banking Crises: The Role of Bank-Balance-Sheet Contagion and Financial Account Structure’, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, no. 902, OECD Publishing.Google Scholar
Ahrend, R., and Goujard, A (2012), ‘International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility – Part 3. How Do Structural Policies Affect Financial Crisis Risk?: Evidence from Past Crises across OECD and Emerging Economies’, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, no. 966, OECD Publishing, available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k97fmtj5vtk-en.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ahrend, R., and Schwellnus, C (2012), ‘Which Structural Policies Stabilise Capital Flows When Investors Suddenly Change Their Mind? Evidence from Bilateral Bank Data’, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, no. 967, OECD Publishing.Google Scholar
Allen, F., and Gale, D (2000), ‘Financial Contagion’, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 108, no. 1, pp.133.Google Scholar
Aoyama, H., Battiston, S and Fujiwara, Y (2013), ‘DebtRank Analysis of the Japanese Credit Network’, RIETI Discussion Paper Series, 13-E-087, available at www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/13e087.pdfGoogle Scholar
Bank Negara Malaysia (2013), ‘Financial Stability and Payment Systems Report’, Bank Negara Malaysia, pp. 46–51, available at www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_publication&pg=en_fspr&ac=8&lang=en.Google Scholar
Bardoscia, M., Barucca, P, Brinley, C. A. and Hill, J (2017), ‘The Decline of Solvency Contagion Risk’, Bank of England Staff Working Paper, 662.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S, Caccioli, F and Caldarelli, G (2015), ‘DebtRank: A Microscopic Foundation for Shock Propagation’, PLOS One, Vol. 10, no. 6, p.e0130406.Google Scholar
Bardoscia, M., Caccioli, F, Perotti, J, Vivaldo, G and Caldarelli, G (2016), ‘Distress Propagation in Complex Networks: The Case of Non-Linear DebtRank’, PLOS One, Vol. 11, no. 10, p. e0163825.Google Scholar
Battiston, S., Caldarelli, G., D’Errico, M. and Gurciullo, S. (2016), ‘Leveraging the network: A stress-test framework based on DebtRank’, Statistics & Risk Modeling, Volume 33: Issue 3–4, pp.117–138.Google Scholar
Battiston, S., Delli Gatti, D, Gallegati, M, Greenwald, B and Stiglitz, J (2012), ‘Liaisons Dangereuses: Increasing Connectivity, Risk Sharing, and Systemic Risk’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 36, no. 8, pp. 1121–41.Google Scholar
Battiston, S., M. Puliga, R. Kaushik, P. Tasca and G. Caldarelliet (2012), ‘DebtRank: Too Central to Fail? Financial Networks, the FED and Systemic Risk’, Scientific Report 2, no 1, 541.Google Scholar
BIS (2011), “Global systemically important banks: assessment methodology and the additional loss absorbency requirement - Rule Text,” BIS Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, November.Google Scholar
Borio, C. (2014), ‘The International Monetary and Financial System: Its Achilles Heel and What to Do about It’, BIS Working Papers, no. 456, September.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Borio, C., and Disyatat, P (2011), ‘Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Link or No Link?BIS Working Papers, no. 346, May; revised and extended version of ‘Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Reassessing the Role of International Finance’, Asian Economic Policy Review, Vol. 5, 2010, pp.198216.Google Scholar
Borio, C., James, H and Shin, H. S. (2014), ‘The International Monetary and Financial System: A Capital Account Historical Perspective’, BIS Working Papers, 457, Bank for International Settlements, available at www.bis.org/publ/work457.pdf.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boss, M., Elsinger, H, Summer, M and Thurner, S (2004), ‘Network Topology of the Interbank Market’, Quantitative Finance, Vol. 4, no. 6, pp. 677–84.Google Scholar
Burrows, O., Learmonth, D, McKeown, J and Williams, R (2012), ‘RAMSI: A Top-Down Stress-Testing Model Developed at the Bank of England’, Quarterly Bulletin, 2012 Q3, Bank of England, pp. 204–10, available at www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2012/ramsi-a-top-down-stress-testing-model-developed-at-the-boe.pdf.Google Scholar
Cerutti, E. (2015), ‘Drivers of Cross-Border Banking Exposures during the Crisis’, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 55, pp. 340–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cerutti, E., Claessens, S and McGuire, P (2012), ‘Systemic Risks in Global Banking: What Available Data Can Tell Us and What More Data Are Needed?’ NBER Working Paper, no. 18531.Google Scholar
Changmo, A., Lee, G and Chang, D (2014), ‘The Global Financial Crisis and Transmission Channels: An International Network Analysis’, Working Paper 7/2014, The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.Google Scholar
Chan-Lau, J., Espinosa, M, Giesecke, K and Solé, J (2009), ‘Assessing the Systemic Implications of Financial Linkages’, IMF Global Financial Stability Report, 2, April.Google Scholar
Cho, D., and Changyong, R. (2013), ‘Effects of Quantitative Easing on Asia: Capital Flows and Financial Markets’, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, no. 350.Google Scholar
Cihák, M., and Ong, L. L. (2007), ‘Estimating Spillover Risk among Large EU Banks’, IMF Working Paper, European Department and Monetary and Capital Markets Department.Google Scholar
Degryse, H., and Nguyễn, G (2004), ‘Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Systemic Risk in the Belgian Interbank Market’, NBB Working Paper, no. 43.Google Scholar
Dizon, J. T., Hutalla, J. P. and Rariza, J. M., Jr. (2019), ‘Philippines: Contagion Risk Analysis of Cross-Border Exposures of Banks’. In Matousek, R (ed.), Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis. Kuala Lumpur: The SEACEN Centre, pp. 143174.Google Scholar
Dungey, M., and Gajurel, D (2015), ‘Contagion and Banking Crisis – International Evidence for 2007–2009’, Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 60, pp. 271–83.Google Scholar
Elsinger, H., Lehar, A and Summer, M (2012), ‘Network Models and Systemic Risk Assessment’, available at www.researchgate.net/publication/309187281_Network_models_and_systemic_risk_assessment (accessed 7 January 2019).Google Scholar
Espinosa-Vega, M., and Solé, J (2010), ‘Cross-Border Financial Surveillance: A Network Perspective’, IMF Working Paper, 10/105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fagiolo, G. (2007), ‘Clustering in Complex Directed Networks’, Physical Review E, Vol. 76, 026107.Google Scholar
Fender, I., and McGuire, P (2010), ‘European Banks’ US Dollar Funding Pressures’, BIS Quarterly Review, June, pp. 57–64.Google Scholar
Fink, K., Krüger, U, Meller, B and Wong, L (2016), ‘The Credit Quality Channel: Modeling Contagion in the Interbank Market’, Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 25, pp. 8397.Google Scholar
Forbes, K. (2012), ‘The “Big C”: Identifying and Mitigating Contagion’, 36th Jackson Hole Symposium.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freixas, X., Parigi, B and Rochet, J.-C. (2000), ‘Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank’, Journal of Money Credit and Banking. Vol. 32, pp. 611–38.Google Scholar
Furfine, C. H. (2003), ‘Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 111–28.Google Scholar
Gai, P., and Kapadia, S (2010), ‘Contagion in Financial Networks’, Proceedings of the Royal Statistical Society – Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 466, no. 2120, pp. 2401–23.Google Scholar
Genberg, H. (2017), ‘Global Shocks and Risk to Financial Stability in Asia’, Working Paper 25/2017, The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.Google Scholar
Glasserman, P., and Young, H (2015), ‘How Likely Is Contagion in Financial Networks?Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 50, pp. 383–99.Google Scholar
Goyal, S., and Sergi, B. S. (2015). ‘Social Entrepreneurship and Sustainability – Understanding the Context and Key Characteristics’, Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, Vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 269–78.Google Scholar
Goyal, S., Sergi, B. S. and Kapoor, A (2017), ‘Emerging Role of For-Profit Social Enterprises at the Base of the Pyramid: The Case of Selco’, Journal of Management Development, Vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 97108.Google Scholar
Group of Ten, Task Force on the Impact of Financial Consolidation on Monetary Policy (2001), Report on Consolidation in the Financial Sector. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.Google Scholar
Haldane, A. G., and May, R. M. (2011), ‘Systemic Risk in Banking Ecosystems’, Nature, Vol. 469, pp. 351–55.Google Scholar
Hattori, M., and Suda, Y (2007), ‘Developments in a Cross-Border Bank Exposure Network’, Bank of Japan Working Paper, no. 07-E-21.Google Scholar
Herd, R., Koen, V, Patnaik, I and Shah, A (2011), ‘Financial Sector Reform in India: Time for a Second Wave?’, Economics Department Working Papers, no. 879. OECD, Paris, France.Google Scholar
Hoggarth, G., Mahadeva, L and Martin, J (2010), ‘Understanding International Bank Capital Flows during the Recent Financial Crisis’, Financial Stability Paper, no. 8, Bank of England.Google Scholar
Hoggarth, G., Reis, R and Saporta, V (2001), ‘Costs of Banking System Instability: Some Empirical Evidence’, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 26, pp.825–55.Google Scholar
Kolaczyk, E. D. (2009), Statistical Analysis of Network Data: Methods and Models. New York: Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
Korniyenko, Y., Patnam, M, del Rio-Chanon, R. M. and Porter, M. A. (2018), ‘Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach’, IMF Working Papers, 18/113, International Monetary Fund.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kubelec, C. and Sa, F., 2010, “The geographical composition of national external balance sheets: 1980–2005,” Bank of England Working Paper No. 384.Google Scholar
Lee, S. (2019), ‘Global Network in Cross-Border Interbank Flows: The Case of South Korea’. In Matousek, R (ed.), Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis. Kuala Lumpur: The SEACEN Centre, pp. 6382.Google Scholar
Leitner, Y. (2005), ‘Financial Networks: Contagion, Commitment, and Private Sector Bailouts’, Journal of Finance, Vol. 60, pp. 2925–53.Google Scholar
Matousek, R. (2019), Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis. Kuala Lumpur: The SEACEN Centre.Google Scholar
Matousek, R., Lee, H and Rummel, O (2019), ‘Contagion Risk Analysis through Visual Network: An Overview of the Asia-Pacific Region’. In Matousek, R (ed.), Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis. Kuala Lumpur: The SEACEN Centre, pp. 938.Google Scholar
McGuire, P., and Wooldridge, P (2005), ‘The BIS Consolidated Banking Statistics: Structure, Uses and Recent Enhancements’, BIS Quarterly Review, September.Google Scholar
Minoiu, C., and Reyes, J. A. (2013), ‘A Network Analysis of Global Banking: 19782010’, Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 168–84.Google Scholar
Muhajir, M. H., Wibowo, A. H. F. and Ramdhani, I (2019), ‘Understanding Cross-Border Contagion Risk in Indonesia’. In Matousek, R (ed.), Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis. Kuala Lumpur: The SEACEN Centre, pp. 3962.Google Scholar
Narasimham, M. (1991), Report of the Committee on the Financial System. Mumbai: Reserve Bank of India.Google Scholar
Narasimham, M. (1998), Report of the Committee on Banking Sector Reforms. New Delhi: Ministry of Finance.Google Scholar
Newman, M. (2010), Networks: An Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nguyễn, H. P., Phuong, H, Cuong, P. M. and Ngo, HL. (2019), ‘Cross Border Interbank Contagion Risk from Vietnam’s Banking System’. In Matousek, R (ed.), Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis. Kuala Lumpur: The SEACEN Centre, pp. 195212.Google Scholar
Nier, E., Yang, J, Yorulmazer, T and Alentorn, A (2008), ‘Network Models and Financial Stability’, Bank of England Working Paper, no. 346.Google Scholar
OECD (2012), ‘Financial Contagion in the Era of Globalised Banking?OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, June, no. 14.Google Scholar
Onour, I. A., and Sergi, B. S. (2010) ‘GCC Stock Markets: How Risky Are They?’, International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 330–37.Google Scholar
Opsahl, T., Agneessens, F and Skvoretz, J (2010), ‘Node Centrality in Weighted Networks: Generalizing Degree and Shortest Paths’, Social Networks, Vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 245–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Park, C.-Y., and Shin, K (2017), ‘A Contagion through Exposure to Foreign Banks during the Global Financial Crisis’, Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series, July, no. 516.Google Scholar
Peltonen, T., Piloiu, A and Sarlin, P (2015), ‘Network Linkages to Predict Bank Distress’, European Central Bank Working Paper Series Number 1828, pp. 135.Google Scholar
Qerimi, Q., and Sergi, B. S. (2015) ‘Development and Social Development in the Global Context’, International Journal of Business and Globalisation, Vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 383407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Remolona, E., and Shim, I (2015), ‘The Rise of Regional Banking in Asia and the Pacific’, BIS Quarterly Review, September, pp. 119–34, available at www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1509j.pdf (accessed 28 December 2018).Google Scholar
Reyes, J., and Minoiu, C (2011), ‘A Network Analysis of Global Banking:1978–2009’, IMF Working Papers, Vol. 11, no. 74, p. 1.Google Scholar
Sababathy, H., and Ling, L S. (2019), ‘Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk to Malaysian Banking System’. In Matousek, R (ed.), Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis. Kuala Lumpur: The SEACEN Centre, pp. 83108.Google Scholar
Sengupta, R., and Vardhan, H (2017), ‘This Time It Is Different: Non-performing Assets in Indian Banks’, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 52, no. 12, pp. 8595.Google Scholar
Sergi, B. S. (2000), ‘A New Index of Independence of 12 European National Central Banks: The 1980s and Early 1990s’, Journal of Transnational Management Development, Vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 4157.Google Scholar
Sergi, B. S. (2019), Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Russia. Bingley, UK: Emerald Publishing.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sergi, B. S., Popkova, E, Bogoviz, A and Ragulina, J (2019), ‘Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth: The Experience of Developed and Developing Countries’. In Sergi, B. S and Scanlon, C (ed.), Entrepreneurship and Development in the 21st Century (Lab for Entrepreneurship and Development). Bingley, UK: Emerald Publishing, pp. 332.Google Scholar
Sharma, U. (2019), ‘Cross-Border Banking in Indian Context’. In Matousek, R (ed.), Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis. Kuala Lumpur: The SEACEN Centre, pp. 3962.Google Scholar
Sheldon, G., and Maurer, M (1998), ‘Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland’, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 134, pp. 685704.Google Scholar
Smaga, P. (2014), ‘The Concept of Systemic Risk’, SRC Special Paper, no. 5.Google Scholar
Summer, M. (2013), ‘Financial Contagion and Network Analysis’, Annual Review of Financial Economics, Vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 277–97.Google Scholar
Tabak, B. M., Souza, S and Guerra, S (2013), ‘Assessing Systemic Risk in the Brazilian Interbank Market’, Banco Central do Brasil Working Papers, no. 318.Google Scholar
Tabak, B. M., Takami, M, Rocha, J. M. C. and Cajueiro, D. O. (2011), ‘Directed Clustering Coefficient as a Measure of Systemic Risk in Complex Banking Networks’, Banco Central do Brasil Working Papers, no. 249.Google Scholar
Tonzer, L. (2015), ‘Cross-Border Interbank Networks, Banking Risk and Contagion’, Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 18, Issue C, pp. 5.Google Scholar
Upper, C. (2007), ‘Using Counterfactual Simulations to Assess the Danger of Contagion in Interbank Markets’, BIS Working Paper, no. 234.Google Scholar
Upper, C. (2011), ‘Simulation Methods to Assess the Danger of Contagion in Interbank Markets’, Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 111–25.Google Scholar
Upper, C., and Worms, A (2004), ‘Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is There a Danger of Contagion?European Economic Review, Vol. 48, no. 4, pp. 827–49.Google Scholar
Von Peter, G. (2007), ‘International Banking Centres: A Network Perspective’,BIS Quarterly Review Working Paper, Basel, Switzerland.Google Scholar
Watts, D. J., and Strogatz, S. H. (1998), ‘Collective Dynamics of ‘Small-World’ Networks’, Nature, Vol. 393, pp. 440–42.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wells, S. (2004), ‘Financial Interlinkages in the United Kingdom’s Interbank Market and the Risk of Contagion’, Bank of England Working Paper, no. 230.Google Scholar
Yellen, J. (2013), ‘Interconnectedness and Systemic Risk: Lessons from the Financial Crisis and Policy Implications’,Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
Yilmaz, K. (2017), Bank Volatility Connectedness in the SEACEN Region. Kuala Lumpur: SEACEN.Google Scholar

Save element to Kindle

To save this element to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis
  • Roman Matousek, Queen Mary University of London, Ole Rummel, The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre
  • Online ISBN: 9781108882040
Available formats
×

Save element to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis
  • Roman Matousek, Queen Mary University of London, Ole Rummel, The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre
  • Online ISBN: 9781108882040
Available formats
×

Save element to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Cross-Border Interbank Contagion Risk Analysis
  • Roman Matousek, Queen Mary University of London, Ole Rummel, The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre
  • Online ISBN: 9781108882040
Available formats
×