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If the base rate fallacy is a fallacy, does it matter how frequently it is committed?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 December 1997

Jonathan E. Adler
Jonathan E. Adler
Affiliation:
Department of Philosophy, Brooklyn College and the Graduate Center, C.U.N.Y. Brooklyn, NY 11210 jeabc@cunyvm.cuny.edu
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Abstract

In many base rate studies, a judgment is required for which the base rates are relevant, and subjects do not use them. It is inferred that the base rates are ignored; I question this inference. Second, I argue that the base rate fallacy is not less significant for what it reveals about human reasoning, if it occurs less frequently than has been alleged.

Type
Continuing Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 20 , Issue 4 , December 1997 , pp. 774 - 775
Copyright
© 1997 Cambridge University Press

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