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Improving decision accuracy where base rates matter: The prediction of violent recidivism

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Vernon L. Quinsey
Vernon L. Quinsey
Affiliation:
Psychology Department, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada, K7L 3N6. quinsey@pavlov.psyc.queensu.ca
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Abstract

Base rates are vital in predicting violent criminal recidivism. However, both lay people given simulated prediction tasks and professionals milking real life predictions appear insensitive to variations in the base rate of violent recidivism. Although there are techniques to help decision makers attend to base rates, increased decision accuracy is better sought in improved actuarial models as opposed to improved clinicians.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 37 - 38
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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