LO77: Assessing the long-term emergency physician resource planning for Nova Scotia, Canada

Abstract

Introduction: Planning for the future emergency physician (EP) workforce will be a significant challenge for decision makers given the rise in emergency department (ED) visits and no concurrent increase in resident positions. EP workforce planning must incorporate physician supply, as well as current and forecasted patient demand. Nova Scotia has undertaken the process of developing a planning model to support policy decision making. We hypothesize that Nova Scotia will require increased resident positions and recruitment from other provinces to meet future patient demand. Methods: We have developed an age structured population model that tracks the number of clinical full-time equivalent (FTE) EPs by their age and shows the “variance” (i.e., supply – demand = variance) over a 30 year planning horizon. This model represents all Level 1, 2, 3, and 4 EDs in Nova Scotia. Current physician supply was calculated based on FTE staffing levels. The current patient demand was based on historical volume and acuity of patients and converted to an FTE demand estimate. Forecasted demand was predicted to increase at an average rate of 0.5% per year. We varied the number of residents trained and the number of EPs recruited from outside the province to examine the effect on the EP workforce. Our initial model will reflect the current training environment and will be referred to as the “current state”. In our 3 scenarios, we increased the number of residents and recruited physicians by 50%, individually and then together. Our outcome measure will be the variance in FTE. Results: The current state showed that the province will have a deficit of 51 FTE EPs over the next 30 years. In scenario 1, a 50% increase in both resident training streams eliminated all variance, while in scenario 2, the increase in recruitment reduced the FTE variance to 34 FTE positions unfilled. In scenario 3, the variance was 0. Conclusion: We feel that this CTAS weighted volumes perspective is important for clinical services planning but the siting, sizing, and synergizing of EDs in a region will involve other inputs. Its important to recognize that we have made the assumption that all physicians starting to work in Nova Scotia will be a 1 FTE. Future iterations will examine the effect of more realistic FTE definitions that account for administrative, teaching and research activities.