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Context and Francophone Support for the Sovereignty of Quebec: An Ecological Analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 March 2002

David Lublin  and
D. Stephen Voss
David Lublin
Affiliation:
American University, Washington, D.C.
D. Stephen Voss
Affiliation:
University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY
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Extract

New techniques of ecological inference are utilized to estimate with confidence intervals francophone support in each federal electoral district in Quebec for the pro-sovereignty side in the 1993 and 1997 Canadian general elections and the 1992 and 1995 referenda. Analyzing the link between demographic and political contextual variables and support for the sovereignty of Quebec suggests that demographic factors, such as the proportion of farmers and government workers, influence francophone voting behaviour more often than political factors such as incumbency. Unlike in many other countries with ethnically based movements, francophone support for sovereignty actually rises as the francophone portion of the population rises. This finding indicates that the contact hypothesis probably applies to the Quebec sovereignty movement.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 35 , Issue 1 , March 2002 , pp. 75 - 101
Copyright
© The Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique

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