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Effect of Economic Conditions on Government Popularity: The Canadian Provincial Case

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 January 2006

Geneviève Tellier
Geneviève Tellier
Affiliation:
University of Ottawa
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Abstract

Abstract. This study tested if the economic voting hypothesis can explain voters' support for provincial governments. Using pooled time-series data from six provinces, a popularity function was developed and tested. Findings indicate that economic conditions have an effect on provincial government popularity. Voters attribute different responsibilities, however, to different political parties. Left-wing incumbent parties are held to be accountable for unemployment, while centrist and right-wing ruling parties are accountable for public deficits. Results also show that provincial government popularity depreciates over time and is correlated to the federal government's own popularity.

Résumé. Cette étude a pour objectif de vérifier si l'hypothèse du vote économique peut expliquer la popularité des gouvernements provinciaux auprès des électeurs. Ainsi, une fonction de popularité est présentée, puis testée à l'aide de séries chronologiques provenant de six provinces canadiennes. Les résultats empiriques obtenus indiquent que la situation économique exerce une influence sur la popularité des gouvernements provinciaux. Toutefois, les électeurs attribuent différentes responsabilités à différents partis politiques. Ainsi, ils tiennent les partis de gauche responsables de la situation de l'emploi et les partis de centre et de droite responsables des déficits publics. De plus, les résultats démontrent que la popularité des gouvernements provinciaux se déprécie avec le temps et est corrélée à la popularité du gouvernement fédéral.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 39 , Issue 1 , March 2006 , pp. 27 - 51
Copyright
© 2006 Cambridge University Press

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