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Explaining Variation in Oil Sands Pipeline Projects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 May 2020

Amy Janzwood Open the ORCID record for Amy Janzwood [Opens in a new window]
Amy Janzwood*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, 100 St. George, TorontoON, M5S 3G3
*
*Corresponding author. Email: amy.janzwood@mail.utoronto.ca.
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Abstract

While the vast majority of oil pipeline projects in Canada have been successfully built, several mega oil sands projects within and passing through Canada have been cancelled or significantly delayed. This article explains why these delays and cancellations have occurred. A systematic cross-case analysis is used to provide insight into the changing politics of oil sands pipelines. Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is used to identify combinations of causal conditions that co-occur across cases of proposed new oil pipelines and pipeline expansion projects. The pipeline projects were proposed to the federal regulator—the National Energy Board—between 2006 and 2014. The QCA reveals that social mobilization and major regulatory barrier(s) are necessary conditions in explaining variation in pipeline project outcomes. The analysis of sufficiency reveals more complex configurations of conditions. This article contributes to the literature on the politics of oil sands pipelines by using a comparative approach to identify the impacts of socio-political and legal dynamics that have emerged around pipelines in the last 15 years.

Résumé

Résumé

Cet article explique les raisons pour lesquelles plusieurs propositions récentes de méga-pipelines à l'intérieur du Canada et passant à travers le pays ont été annulées ou considérablement retardées. Alors que la grande majorité des projets d'oléoducs ont été construits avec succès, plusieurs mégaprojets de sables bitumineux ont été mis de côté ou ont subi des retards importants. L'aperçu donné ici s'appuie sur une analyse croisée systématique et offre un regard sur la politique changeante des pipelines de sables bitumineux. Notre article utilise l'analyse qualitative comparative (AQC) pour identifier les combinaisons de conditions causales qui coexistent entre les cas de propositions de nouveaux oléoducs et de projets d'expansion. Ces projets ont été proposés à l'organisme de réglementation fédéral - l'Office national de l'énergie - entre 2006 et 2014. L'AQC révèle que la mobilisation sociale et les principaux obstacles réglementaires sont des conditions nécessaires pour expliquer la variation des résultats des projets d'oléoducs. L'analyse de la suffisance révèle des configurations de conditions plus complexes. L'article contribue à la littérature sur la politique des pipelines de sables bitumineux en utilisant une approche comparative pour identifier les impacts des dynamiques sociopolitiques et juridiques qui ont émergé au cours des 15 dernières années.

Keywords

contentious politicsenergy regulationoil sandspipelinesqualitative comparative analysispolitique contentieuseréglementation de l'énergiesables bitumineuxoléoducsanalyse qualitative comparative
Type
Research Article/Étude originale
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 53 , Issue 3 , September 2020 , pp. 540 - 559
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 2020

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