Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T07:21:03.832Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Impacts of development and global change on the epidemiological environment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 July 2008

Gretchen C. Daily  and
Paul R. Ehrlich
Gretchen C. Daily
Affiliation:
Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-5020, USA
Paul R. Ehrlich
Affiliation:
Center for Conservation Biology, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-5020, USA
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Although improvements in human health represent a crucial aspect of development worldwide, many trends associated with development and global change appear to be reducing health security. In this article, we define the human epidemiological environment and describe key biophysical, economic, sociocultural, and political factors that shape it. The potential impact upon the epidemiological environment of aspects of both development and global change are then examined: the influences of human population size, mobility, geographic distribution, and nutritional status; modernization; loss of indigenous medicinal knowledge; microbial evolution of antibiotic resistance; land conversion and biodiversity loss; agricultural intensification; stratospheric ozone depletion; and climate change. Human vulnerability to infectious disease is often strongly and deleteriously influenced by ongoing, intensifying changes in these factors. An unprecedented level of communication and cooperation between experts, institutions, and nations is required to respond to the increasing threat of epidemic disease, which points to a promising area for enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration.

Type
Focus
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 1 , Issue 3 , July 1996 , pp. 311 - 346
Copyright
Copyright © 1996, Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adler, T. (1994), ‘Tick threats: new diseases brought to you by your neighborhood ticks’, Science News 146: 44–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldhous, P. (1993), ‘Malaria: focus on mosquito genes’, Science 261: 546–547.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Aldhous, P. (1994), ‘Fighting parasites on a shoestring’, Science 264:1857–1859.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Alland, J.A. (1970), Adaptation in Cultural Evolution: An Approach to Medical Anthropology, New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Almendares, J. et al. , (1993), ‘Critical regions, a profile of Honduras’, Lancet 342: 1400–1402.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Altman, L.K. (1994a), ‘Infectious disease on the rebound in the U.S., a report says’, New York Times, 10 May: B7.Google Scholar
Altman, L.K. (1994b), ‘Lesson of plague: beware of “vanquished” diseases’, New York Times, 27 September: 1.Google Scholar
Altman, L.K. (1995a), ‘As TB surges, drug producers face criticism’, New York Times, 18 September.Google Scholar
Alrman, L.K. (1995b), ‘No one can say why virus striking Zaire is so deadly’, New York Times, 13 May: 1.Google Scholar
Amabile-Cuevas, C.F. and Chicurel, M.E. (1993), ‘Horizontal gene transfer’, Scientific American 81: 332–341.Google Scholar
Amabile-Cuevas, C.F. et al. , (1995), ‘Antibiotic resistance: mechanisms preventing antibiotics from killing bacteria are appearing much faster than ways to control resistance’, American Scientist 83: 320–329.Google Scholar
Anderson, R.M. and May, R.M. (1979), ‘The population biology of infectious diseases. Part I’, Nature 280: 361–367.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Anderson, R.M. and May, R.M. (1991), Infectious Diseases of Humans, Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, R.M. et al. , (1991), ‘The spread of Hiv-1 in Africa: sexual contact patterns and the predicted demographic impact of Aids’, Nature 352: 581–587.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Anon. (1995a), ‘Bad blood’, New Scientist, 1988, 29 July: 11.Google Scholar
Anon. (1995b), ‘Fear of an epidemic rises in Central America’, New York Times, 26 August.Google Scholar
Anon. (1995c), ‘Sharp rise in drug-resistant bacteria’, New York Times, 25 August.Google Scholar
Ballance, R. et al. , (1992), The World’s Pharmaceutical Industries: An International Perspective on Innovation, Competition, and Policy, Aldershot: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
Barbour, A.G. and Fish, D. (1993), ‘The biological and social phenomenon of Lyme disease’, Science 260: 1610–1616.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bartlett, M.S. (1957), ‘Measles periodicity and community size’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A120: 48–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beisel, W.R. (1984), ‘Nutrition, infection, specific immune responses, and nonspecific host defenses: a complex interaction’, in Watson, R.R., ed., Nutrition, Disease Resistance, and Immune function, New York: Marcel Dekker, 21–30.Google Scholar
Benedick, R.E. (1991), Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Berkelman, R.L. et al. , (1994), ‘Infectious disease surveillance: a crumbling foun-dation’, Science 264: 368–370.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Black, F.L. (1966), ‘Measles endemicity in insular populations: critical community size and its implications’, Journal of Theoretical Biology 11: 207–211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Black, F.L. (1975), ‘Infectious diseases in primitive societies’, Science 187: 515–518.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Black, F.L. (1992), ‘Why did they die?’, Science 258: 1739–1740.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Black, F.L. (1994), ‘An explanation of high death rates among New World peoples when in contact with Old World diseases’, Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 37: 292–307.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bloland, P.B. et al. , (1993), ‘Beyond chloroquine: implications of drug resistance for evaluating malaria therapy efficacy and treatment policy in Africa’, Journal of Infectious Diseases 167: 932–937.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bloom, B.R. and Murray, C.L. (1992), ‘Tuberculosis: commentary on a reemergent killer’, Science 257: 1055–1064.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bouma, M.J. et al. , (1994), ‘Climate change and periodic epidemic malaria’, Lancet 343: 1440.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bradley, D.J. (1993a), ‘Environmental and health problems of developing countries’, in Lake, J.V., Bock, G.R. and Ackrill, K., eds., Environmental Change and Human Health, Chichester: Wiley, 234–244.Google Scholar
Bradley, D.J. (1993b), ‘Human tropical diseases in a changing environment’, in Lake, J.V., Bock, G.R. and Ackrill, K., eds., Environmental Change and Human Health, Chichester: Wiley, 146–162.Google Scholar
Brown, A.W.A. (1977), ‘Yellow fever, dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever’, in Howe, G.M., ed., A World Geography of Human Diseases, London: Academic Press, 271–317.Google Scholar
Brown, P. (1992), ‘The return of the big killer’, New Scientist, 10 October: 30–37.Google Scholar
Brown, P. (1994), ‘Deadly worm may be turning drug-resistant’, New Scientist, 12 November: 4.Google Scholar
Brown, P. (1995), ‘Millions die as TB warning is ignored’, New Scientist, 25 March: 4.Google Scholar
Bull, J.J. and Levin, B.R. (1994), ‘Parasites on the move’, Science 265: 1469–1470.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Burns, J.F. (1994), ‘Plague cases are confirmed in regions across India’, New York Times, 28 September.Google Scholar
Carson, R. (1962), Silent Spring, Boston: Houghton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Chandra, R.K. (1981), ‘Immunodeficiency in undernutrition and overnutririon’, Nutrition Reviews 39: 225–231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chandra, R. (1983), ‘Nutrition, immunity, and infection: present knowledge and future directions’, Lancet 1: 588–691.Google ScholarPubMed
Chapin, G. and Wasserstrom, R. (1981), ‘Agricultural production and malaria resurgence in Central America and India’, Nature 293: 181–185.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cherubin, C.E. (1971), ‘Infectious disease problems of narcotic addicts’, Archives of Internal Medicine 128: 309–313.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chin, J. (1995), ‘Scenarios for the AIDS epidemic in Asia’, East-West Center Program on Population, Report No. 2, February.Google Scholar
Cohen, J. (1994), ‘Bumps on the vaccine road’, Science 265: 1371–1373.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cohen, M.L. (1992), ‘Epidemiology of drug resistance: implications for a post-antimicrobial era’, Science 257: 1050–1055.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cohen, M.N. (1989), Health and the Rise of Civilization, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Colborn, T. et al. , (1996), Our Stolen Future, New York: Dutton.Google Scholar
Collins, F.H.Besansky, N.J. (1994), ‘Vector biology and the control of malaria in Africa’, Science 264: 1874–1875.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Conway, D.J. et al. , (1991), ‘The epidemiology of multiple-clone Plasmodium falci-parum infections in Gambian patients’, Parasitology 103: 1–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corey, L. and Spear, P.G. (1986), ‘Infections with Herpes Simplex viruses’, New England Journal of Medicine 314: 686–691.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Craven, R.B. et al. , (1988), ‘Importation of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and other exotic mosquito species into the United States in used tires from Asia’, Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association 4: 138–142.Google Scholar
Culotta, E. (1994), ‘Funding crunch hobbles antibiotic resistance research’, Science 264: 362–363.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Daily, G.C. (1995), ‘Restoring value to the world’s degraded lands’, Science 269: 350–354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daily, G.C., ed. (forthcoming), Nature’s Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems, Washington, DC: Island Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daily, G.C. and Ehrlich, P.R. (1990), ‘An exploratory model of the impact of rapid climate change on the world food situation’, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 2241: 232–244.Google Scholar
Daily, G.C. and Ehrlich, P.R. (1992), ‘Population, sustainability, and Earth’s carrying capacity’, BioScience 42: 761–771.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daily, G.C. and Ehrlich, P.R. (1995), ‘Population extinction and the biodiversity crisis’, in Perrings, C.A., Maler, K.-G., Folke, C., Holling, C.S. and Jansson, B.-O., eds., Biodiversity Conservation, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
Daily, G.C. et al. , (1994), ‘Optimum human population size’, Population and Environment 15: 469–475.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Darrow, W.W. et al. , (1986), ‘The social origins of AIDS: social change, sexual behavior, and disease trends’, in Feldman, D.A. and Johnson, T.M., eds., The Social Dimensions of AIDS: Method and Theory, New York: Praeger, 95–107.Google Scholar
Dasgupta, P. (1993), An Inquiry into Well-being and Destitution, Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Davies, F.G. et al. , (1981), ‘Rainfall and epizootic Rift Valley fever’, Bulletin of the World Health Organization 63: 941–943.Google Scholar
Davies, J. (1994), ‘Inactivation of antibiotics and the dissemination of resistance genes’, Science 264: 375–382.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
De Cock, K.M. and McCormick, J.B. (1988), ‘HIV infection in Zaire’, New England Journal of Medicine 319: 309.Google Scholar
Delacollette, C., Taelman, H., and Wery, M. (1995), ‘An eriologic study of hemoglo-binuria and blackwater fever in the Kivu Mountains, Zaire’, Ann. Soc. Belge Med. Trop. 75: 51–63.Google Scholar
Desowitz, R. (1981), Tapeworms and Jewish Grandmothers, New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Dobson, A. (1985), ‘Biodiversity and human health’, Trends in Ecology and Evolution 10: 390–391.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dobson, A.P. and Carper, R. (1992), ‘Global warming and potential changes in host-parasite and disease-vector relationships’, in Peters, R.L., ed., Global Warming and Biodiversity, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dolinger, P. et al. , (1973), ‘Alkaloid and predation patterns in Colorado lupine populations’, Oecologia 13: 191–204.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dowling, H.F. (1977), Fighting Infection, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dumont, R. and Rosier, B. (1969), The Hungry Future, New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Dwyer, G. et al. , (1990), ‘A simulation model of the population dynamics and evolution of myxomatosis’, Ecological Monographs 60: 423–447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
The Economist (1995), ‘Disease fights back’, 20 May: 15–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ehrlich, P.R. (1986), The Machinery of Nature, New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, P.R. and Ehrlich, A.H. (1970), Population, Resources, Environment: Issues in Human Ecology, San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, P.R. and Ehrlich, A.H. (1972), Population, Resources, Environment: Issues in Human Ecology, 2nd edn, San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, P.R. and Ehrlich, A.H. (1990), The Population Explosion, New York: Simon & Schuster.Google ScholarPubMed
Ehrlich, P.R. and Holdren, J.P. (1971), ‘Impact of population growth’, Science 171: 1212–1217.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ehrlich, P.R. and Holm, R.W. (1963), The Process of Evolution, New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, P.R. and Raven, P.H. (1965), ‘Butterflies and plants: a study in coevolution’, Evolution 18: 586–608.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ehrlich, P.R. et al. , (1977), Ecoscience: Population, Resources, Environment, San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, P.R. et al. , (1995), The Stork and the Plow: The Equity Answer to the Human Dilemma, New York: Putnam.Google Scholar
Eisner, T. and Meinwald, J. (1995), ‘Proceedings of the colloquium on chemical ecology’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 92: 1–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellner, P.D. and Neu, H.C. (1992), Understanding Infectious Disease, St Louis, MO: Mosby-Year Book.Google Scholar
Epstein, P.R. (1992a), ‘Cholera and the environment’, Lancet 339: 1167–1168.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Epstein, P.R. (1992b), ‘Commentary: pestilence and poverty—historical transitions and the great pandemics’, American Journal of Preventive Medicine 8: 263–265.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Epstein, P.R. (1994), ‘Climate change played a role in India’s plague’, New York Times, 13 November: 3.Google Scholar
Epstein, P.R. and Chickwenhere, G.P. (1994), ‘Environmental factors in disease surveillance’, Lancet 343: 1440–1441.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Epstein, P.R. et al. , (1993), ‘Marine ecosystems’, Lancet 342: 1216–1219.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ewald, P.W. (1988), ‘Cultural vectors, virulence, and the emergence of evolutionary epidemiology’, Oxford Surveys of Evolutionary Biology 5: 215–245.Google Scholar
Ewald, P.W. (1994), Evolution of Infectious Disease, Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farnsworth, N.R. (1988), ‘Screening plants for new medicines’, in Wilson, E.O., ed., Biodiversity, Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 83–97.Google Scholar
Fenner, F. et al. , (1974), The Biology of Animal Viruses, New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Fisher, J.A. (1994), The Plague Makers, New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Flint, M.L. and vanden Bosch, R. (1981), Introduction to Integrated Pest Management, New York: Plenum.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Francy, D.B., et al. (1990), ‘A new arbovirus from Aedes albopictus, an Asian mosquito established in the United States’, Science 250: 1738–1740.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Garenne, M. and Aaby, P. (1990), ‘Pattern of exposure and measles mortality in Senegal’, Journal of Infectious Diseases 161: 1088–1094.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Garrett, L. (1994), The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World out of Balance, New York: Farra, Straus & Giroux.Google Scholar
Gay, F. et al. , (1994), ‘In-vitro resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to qinghaosu derivatives in West Africa’, Lancet 343: 850–851.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Georghiou, G.P. (1990), ‘The effect of agrochemicals on vector populations’, in Roush, R.T. and Tabashnik, B.E., eds., Pesticide Resistance in Arthropods, New York: Chapman & Hall, 183–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Georgopapadakou, N.H. and Walsh, T.J. (1994), ‘Human mycoses: drugs and targets for emerging pathogens’, Science 264: 371–373.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gerding, D.N. et al. , (1991), ‘Aminoglycoside resistance and aminoglycoside usage: ten years of experience in one hospital’, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 35: 1284–1290.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gibbons, A. (1992a), ‘Exploring new strategies to fight drug-resistant microbes’, Science 257: 1036–1038.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gibbons, A. (1992b), ‘Researchers fret over neglect of 600 million patients’, Science 256: 1135.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gillett, J.D. (1974), ‘Direct and indirect influences of temperature on the transmission of parasites from insects to man’, in Taylor, A.E.R. and Muller, R., eds., Effects of Meteorological Factors upon Parasites, Symposia of the British Society for Parasitology, 12, 79–95.Google Scholar
Gizewski, P. and Homer-Dixon, T. (1995), Urban Growth and Violence: Will the Future Resemble the Past?, Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science.Google Scholar
Glass, R.I. et al. (1992), ‘Epidemic cholera in the Americas’, Science 256: 1524–1525.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gupta, S. et al. (1994), ‘Antigenic diversity and the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum’, Science 263: 961–963.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Haines, A. (1990), Global warming: the implications for health’, in Legget, J., ed., Global Warming: The Greenpeace Report, Oxford University Press, 149–162.Google Scholar
Haley, R.W. et al. (1985), ‘The efficacy of infection surveillance and control programs in preventing nosocomial infections in U.S. hospitals’, American Journal of Epidemiology 121: 182–205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harrison, G.A. and Waterlow, J.C., eds. (1990), Diet and Disease in Traditional Developing Societies, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Henderson, D.A. (1993), ‘Surveillance systems and intergovernmental cooperation’, in Morse, S.S., ed., Emerging Viruses, New York: Oxford University Press, 283–289.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henig, R.M. (1995), ‘The new mosquito menace’, New York Times, 13 September.Google Scholar
Herre, E.A. (1993), ‘Population structure and the evolution of virulence in nema-tode parasites of fig wasps’, Science 259: 1442–1445.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Holdren, J.P. and Ehrlich, P.R. (1974), ‘Human population and the global environment’, American Scientist 62: 282–292.Google ScholarPubMed
Holmberg, S.D. et al. , (1984), ‘Drug-resistant Salmonella from animals fed antimicrobials’, New England Journal of Medicine 311: 617–622.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hudson, R.P. (1979), ‘Lessons from Legionnaires disease’, Annals of Internal Medicine 90: 704–707.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hughes, J.M. et al. , (1993), ‘Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome: an emerging infectious disease’, Science 262: 850–851.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Humphry-Smith, I. et al. , (1993), ‘Evaluation of mechanical transmission of HIV by the African soft tick, Ornithodoros moubata’, AIDS 7: 341–347.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inhorn, M.C. and Brown, P.J. (1990), ‘The anthropology of infectious disease’, Annual Review of Anthropology 19: 89–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jeevan, A. and Kripke, ML. (1993), ‘Ozone depletion and the immune system’, Lancet 342: 1159–1160.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Johnson, K.M. (1993), ‘Emerging viruses in context: an overview of viral hemor-rhagic fevers’, in Morse, S.S., ed., Emerging Viruses, New York: Oxford University Press, 46–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, R.B. (1986), ‘Human disease and the evolution of pathogen virulence’, Journal of Theoretical Biology 122: 19–24.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jones, R. and Wigley, T., eds. (1989), Ozone Depletion: Health and Environmental Consequences, New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Kipple, K.F., ed. (1993), The Cambridge World History of Human Disease, Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kissling, R.E. et al. , (1968), ‘Agent of disease contracted from green monkeys’, Science 160: 888–890.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kolberg, R. (1994), ‘Finding ‘sustainable’ ways to prevent parasitic diseases’, Science 264:1859–1861.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lappe, M. (1982), Germs that Won’t Die, Garden City, NY: Anchor Press.Google Scholar
Last, J.M. (1987), Public Health and Human Ecology, Norwalk, CT: Appleton & Lange.Google Scholar
Lastavica, C.C. et al. , (1989), ‘Rapid emergence of a focal epidemic of Lyme disease in coastal Massachusetts’, New England Journal of Medicine 320: 133–137.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lawton, J. and May, R. (1995), Extinction Rates, Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leaf, A. (1989), ‘Potential health effects of global climatic and environmental changes’, New England Journal of Medicine 321: 1577–1583.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lederberg, J. et al. , eds. (1992), Emerging Infections: Microbial Threats to Health in the United States, Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
Lenski, R.E. (1988), ‘Evolution of plague virulence’, Nature 334: 473–474.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Levine, D.P. and Sobel, J.D. (1991), Infections in Intravenous Drug Abusers, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Levy, S.B. (1984), ‘Playing antibiotic pool: time to tally the score’, New England Journal of Medicine 311: 617–622.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Levy, S.B. (1992a), The Antibiotic Paradox, New York: Plenum.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, S.B. (1992b), ‘Active efflux mechanisms for antimicrobial resistance’, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 36: 695–703.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lipsitch, M. (1995), ‘Fears growing over bacteria resistant to antibiotics’, New York Times, 12 September.Google Scholar
Loevinsohn, M.E. (1994), ‘Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda’, Lancet 343: 714–718.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Looareesuwan, S. et al. , (1992), ‘Randomized trial of artesunate and mefloquine alone and in sequence for acute uncomplicated faltiparum malaria’, Lancet 339: 821–h824.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
McCally, M. and Cassell, C. (1990), ‘Medical responsibility and the global environ-ment’, Annals of Internal Medicine 113: 467–473.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacDonald, G. (1952), ‘The analysis of equilibrium in malaria’, Tropical Diseases Bulletin 47: 907–915.Google Scholar
McEvedy, C. (1988), ‘The Bubonic Plague’, Scientific American, February, 118–123.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
MacKenzie, D. (1995), ‘Can we afford not to track deadly viruses?’, New Scientist, 20 May: 4.Google Scholar
McKeown, T. (1979), The Role of Medicine: Dream, Mirage, or Nemesis?, Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
McKeown, T. (1988), The Origins of Human Disease, Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
McKeown, T. et al. , (1972), ‘An interpretation of the modern rise of population in Europe’, Population Studies 26: 345–382.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
McKeown, T. et al. , (1974), ‘An interpretation of the decline of mortality in England and Wales during the twentieth century’, Population Studies 29: 391–422.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McMichael, A.J. and Martens, W.J.M. (1995), ‘The health impacts of global climate change: grappling with scenarios, predictive models, and multiple uncertainties’, Ecosystem Health 1: 23–33.Google Scholar
McNeill, W.H. (1976), Plagues and Peoples, Garden City, NY: Doubleday.Google Scholar
McNeill, W.H. (1993), ‘Patterns of disease emergence in history’, in Morse, S.S., ed., Emerging Viruses, New York: Oxford University Press, 29–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maizels, R.M. et al. , (1993), ‘Immunological modulation and evasion by helminth parasites in human populations’, Nature 365: 797–805.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Manson-Bahr, P.E.C. and Apted, F.I.C. (1982), Manson’s Tropical Diseases, London: Balliere Tindall.Google Scholar
Martin, P.H. and Lefebvre, M.G. (1995), ‘Malaria and climate: sensitivity of malaria potential transmission to climate’, Ambio 24: 200–207.Google Scholar
Maurice, J. (1995), ‘Russian chaos breeds diphtheria outbreak’, Science 267: 1416–1417.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
May, R.M. (1993), ‘Ecology and evolution of host-virus associations’, in Morse, S.S., ed., Emerging Viruses, New York: Oxford University Press, 58–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
May, M.R. and Anderson, R.M. (1979), ‘The population biology of infectious diseases. Part II ’, Nature 280: 455–461.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mee, C.L. Jr (1990), ‘How a mysterious disease laid low Europe’s masses’, Smithsonian, February, 67–79.Google Scholar
Meegan, J.M. (1978), ‘Rift valley fever in Egypt: an overview of the epizootic in 1977 and 1978’, Controversies in Epidemiology and Biostatistics 3: 100–113.Google Scholar
Miller, J.A. (1989), ‘Diseases for our future’, BioScience 39: 509–517.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, L.H. et al. , (1994), ‘Malaria pathogenesis’, Science 264: 1878–1883.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mitchison, A. (1993), ‘Will we survive?’, Scientific American, September: 136–144.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mobarak, A.B. (1982), ‘The schistosomiasis problem in Egypt’, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 31: 87–91.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Monath, T.P. (1993), ‘Arthropod-borne viruses’, in Morse, S.S., ed., Emerging Viruses, New York: Oxford University Press, 138–148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morell, V. (1995), ‘Chimpanzee outbreak heats up search for Ebola origin’, Science 268: 974–975.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Morse, S.S. (1991), ‘Emerging viruses: defining the rules for viral traffic’, Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 34: 387–409.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Morse, S.S. (1993), ‘Examining the origins of emerging viruses’, in Morse, S.S., ed., Emerging Viruses, New York: Oxford University Press, 10–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moser, M.R. et al. , (1979), ‘Aircraft transmission of influenza a’, American Journal of Epidemiology 110: 1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murphy, B. (1993), ‘Factors restraining emergence of new influenza viruses’, in Morse, S.S., ed., Emerging Viruses, New York: Oxford University Press, 234–240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neu, H.C. (1992), ‘The crisis in antibiotic resistance’, Science 257: 1066–1077.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nichol, ST. et al. , (1993), ‘Genetic identification of a hantavirus associated with an outbreak of acute respiratory illness’, Science 262: 914–917.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nikaido, H. (1994), ‘Prevention of drug access to bacterial targets: permeability barriers and active efflux’, Science 264: 382–388.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nowak, R. (1994), ‘Flesh-eating bacteria: not new, but still worrisome’, Science 264: 1665.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nussenzweig, R.S. and Long, C.A. (1994), ‘Malaria vaccines: multiple targets’, Science 265: 1381–1383.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Oaks, S.C. Jr et al. , eds. (1991), Malaria: Obstacles and Opportunities, Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
Oliver, J.H. et al. , (1993), ‘Conspecificity of the ricks Ixodes scapularis and I. dam-mini (Acari: Ixodidae)’, Journal of Medical Entomology 30: 54–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ornstein, R. and Ehrlich, P.R. (1989), New World/New Mind: Moving Towards Conscious Evolution, New York: Doubleday.Google Scholar
Palese, P. (1993), ‘Evolution of influenza and RNA viruses’, in Morse, S.S., ed., Emerging Viruses, New York: Oxford University Press, 226–233.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pearce, F. (1995), ‘Global alert over malaria’, New Scientist, 13 May: 4–5.Google Scholar
Percival, V. and Homer-Dixon, T. (1995), Environmental Scarcity and Violent Conflict: The Case of Rwanda, Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science.Google Scholar
Population Reference Bureau (1995), World Population Data Sheet, Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.Google Scholar
Read, A.F. and Harvey, P.H. (1993), ‘The evolution of virulence’, Nature 362: 500–501.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Repetto, R. (1992), ‘Policy Implications of Possible Effects of Pesticides on the Immune System’, Conference on Pesticides and Health,Bellagio, Italy:World Resources Institute.Google Scholar
Roberts, L. (1989), ‘Disease and death in the New World’, Science 246: 1245–1247.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rogers, D.J.Packer, M.J. (1993), ‘Vector-borne diseases, models, and global change’, Lancet 342: 1282–1285.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rohter, L. (1995), ‘U.S. may be threatened by epidemic of dengue’, New York Times International, 23 September: 5.Google Scholar
Rosenberg, M.J. and Gollub, E.L. (1992), ‘Commentary: methods women can use that may prevent sexually transmitted disease, including Hiv’, American Journal of Public Health 82: 1473–1478.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rosenberg, M.J. and Holmes, K.K. (1993), ‘Virucides in prevention of HIV infection’, Sexually Transmitted Diseases 20: 41–44.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rosenberg, M.J. et al. , (1992), ‘Barrier contraceptives and sexually transmitted diseases in women: a comparison of female-dependent methods and condoms’, American Journal of Public Health 82: 669–674.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ross, P.S. et al. , (1992), ‘Antibodies to phocine distemper virus in Canadian seals’, Veterinary Record 130: 514–516.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Russell, A.D. (1993), ‘Microbial cell walls and resistance of bacteria and fungi to antibiotics and biocides’, Journal of Infectious Diseases 168: 1339–1340.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
SCEP (Study of Critical Environmental Problems) (1970), Man’s Impact on the global Environment, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Scholtissek, C. and Naylor, E. (1988), ‘Fish farming and influenza pandemics’, Nature 331: 215.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Shope, R. (1991), ‘Global climate change and infectious diseases’, Environmental Health Perspectives 96: 171–174.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Slater, A.J. (1989), ‘Antibiotic resistance in the tropics. 3. Medical responsibilities of the pharmaceutical industry with respect to use of antibiotics in the tropics’, Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 83: 45–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, C.E.G. et al. , (1967), ‘Fatal human disease from vervet monkeys’, Lancet 2: 1119–1121.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Smith, J.B.Tirpak, D.A., eds. (1988), The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Washington, DC: United States Environmental Protection Agency.Google Scholar
Smith, K. (1990), ‘The risk transition’, International Environmental Affairs 2: 227–251.Google Scholar
Smythe, P.M. et al. , (1971), ‘Thymolymphatic deficiency and depression of cell-mediated immunity in protein-calorie malnutrition’, Lancet 2: 939–943.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Snow, J. (1855), On the Mode of Transmission of Cholera, London: Churchill.Google Scholar
Soule, M. (1995), ‘Health implications of global warming and the onslaught of alien species’, Wild Earth 5: 56–61.Google Scholar
Spratt, B.G. (1994), ‘Resistance to antibiotics mediated by target alterations’, Science 264: 388–393.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sternberg, S. (1994), ‘The emerging fungal threat’, Science 266: 1632–1634.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Stone, R. (1993), ‘Resurging infectious diseases in Russia’, Science 261: 415.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sutherst, R.W. (1993), ‘Arthropods as disease vectors in a changing environment1, in Lake, J.V., Bock, G.R. and Ackrill, K., eds., Environmental Change and Human Health, New York: Wiley, 124–139.Google Scholar
Symons, D. (1978), The Evolution of Human Sexuality, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Tauxe, R.V. et al. , (1990), ‘Antimicrobial resistance of Shigella isolated in the USA: the importance of international travelers’, Journal of Infectious Diseases 162: 1107–1111.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Taylor, G. (1993), ‘A rational attack on influenza’, Nature 363: 401–402.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Temin, H.M. (1989), ‘Is HTV unique or merely different?’, Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 2: 1–9.Google ScholarPubMed
TerKuile, P.O. et al. , (1993), ‘Halfantrine versus mefloquine in treatment of multi-drug-resistant falciparum malaria’, Lancet 341: 1044–1049.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thrall, P.H. et al. , (1993), ‘Host and pathogen coexistence in sexually transmitted and vector-borne diseases characterized by frequency-dependent disease transmission’, American Naturalist 142: 543–552.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tolchin, M. (1993), ‘Exposures to tuberculosis on planes are investigated’, New York Times, 21 June.Google Scholar
Travis, J. (1994), ‘Reviving the antibiotic miracle’, Science 264: 360–362.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Turner, et al. (1991), The Earth as Transformed by Human Action, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
UNICEF (1992), State of the World’s Children 1992, New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
United Nations (1987), The Prospects of World Urbanization, Revised as of 1984–85, New York: United Nations.Google Scholar
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (1994), Human Development Report, New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
United Press International (UPI) (1995), ‘Peru officials declare dengue alerf, 27 August.Google Scholar
Uvin, P. (1994), The International Organization of Hunger, London: Kegan Paul.Google Scholar
Vander Schalie, H. (1974), ‘Aswan dam revisited’, Environment 16: 272–276.Google Scholar
Webster, R.G. (1993), ‘Influenza’, in Morse, S.S., ed., Emerging Viruses, New York: Oxford University Press, 37–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weihe, W.H. and Mertens, R. (1991), ‘Human well-being, diseases and climate’, in Jager, J. and Ferguson, H.L., eds., Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy, Cambridge University Press, 345–359.Google Scholar
Wilson, E.O. (1992), The Diversity of Life, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
World Bank (1980), Health Sector Policy Paper, Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Bank (1992), World Development Report 1992: Development and the Environment, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
World Bank (1993), World Development Report 1993: Investing in Health, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
World Health Organization (WHO) (1976), ‘Resistance of vectors and reservoir of disease to pesticides’, Technical Report 585.Google Scholar
World Health Organization (WHO) (1987), International Health News, September.Google Scholar
World Resources Institute (WRI) (1987), World Resources 1987, New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Wuethrich, B. (1994), ‘Migrating genes could spread resistance’, New Scientist, 15 October: 9.Google Scholar