Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-s2hrs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T15:13:31.161Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The dynamics of support: the winners–losers gap in attitudes toward EU membership in post-communist countries†

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2010

Alexander Herzog  and
Joshua A. Tucker
Alexander Herzog*
Affiliation:
Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University, New York, NY, USA
Joshua A. Tucker*
Affiliation:
Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University, New York, NY, USA
*
* E-mails: alexander.herzog@nyu.edu, joshua.tucker@nyu.edu
* E-mails: alexander.herzog@nyu.edu, joshua.tucker@nyu.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We examine the question of whether economic winners were more likely to support European Union (EU) membership than economic losers in post-communist countries. We include in our analysis every cross-national survey of post-communist countries with both a measure of individual attitudes toward EU membership as well as an appropriate measure of individual self-assessment of economic progress. The resultant data set contains data from 67 different surveys over a 12-year period (1991–2003) in all 10 post-communist countries that have joined the EU to date. Using a variety of analytical techniques, ranging from simple cross-tables and multivariate analysis of the individual surveys to multilevel models of a fully pooled data set, we show that the pattern of economic winners being more likely to support EU membership for their country is remarkably consistent across both time and space. At the same time, the dynamic component of the analysis allows us to show that the size of this gap varies over time, with winners being even more likely to support EU membership than losers when EU membership is a more realistic possibility.

Keywords

European Unionpost-communist countriespublic opinion formationreferendaEuropean integration
Type
Research Article
Information
European Political Science Review , Volume 2 , Issue 2 , July 2010 , pp. 235 - 267
Copyright
Copyright © European Consortium for Political Research 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

†

An earlier version of this article was presented at the 2008 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, 3–6 April 2008, and the 2008 Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of Nationalities, New York, NY, 10–12 April 2008.

References

Alvarez, R.M.Nagler, J. (1998), ‘When politics and models collide: estimating models of multiparty elections’, American Journal of Political Science 42(1): 55–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, C.J. (1998), ‘When in doubt, use proxies: attitudes toward domestic politics and support for European integration’, Comparative Political Studies 31(5): 569–601.Google Scholar
Anderson, C.J.Kaltenthaler, K.C. (1996), ‘The dynamics of public opinion toward European integration, 1973–93’, European Journal of International Relations 2(2): 175–199.Google Scholar
Anderson, C.J.Reichert, M.S. (1995), ‘Economic benefits and support for membership in the E.U.: a cross-national analysis’, Journal of Public Policy 15(3): 231–249.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, S. (2002), ‘Undivided loyalties: is national identity an obstacle to European integration?’, European Union Politics 3(4): 387–413.Google Scholar
Carrubba, C.J. (2001), ‘The electoral connection in European Union politics’, Journal of Politics 63(1): 141–158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christin, T.Trechsel, A.H. (2002), ‘Joining the EU? Explaining public opinion in Switzerland’, European Union Politics 3(4): 415–443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cichowski, R.A. (2000), ‘Western dreams, Eastern realities: support for the European Union in Central and Eastern Europe’, Comparative Political Studies 33(10): 1243–1278.Google Scholar
Diez Medrano, J.Gutierrez, P. (2001), ‘Nested identities: national and European identity in Spain’, Ethnic and Racial Studies 24(5): 753–778.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doyle, O.Fidrmuc, J. (2006), ‘Who favors enlargement? Determinants of support for EU membership in the candidate countries’ referenda’, European Journal of Political Economy 22(2): 520–543.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, R.M.Stevenson, R. (2005), ‘Context and the economic vote: a multilevel analysis’, Political Analysis 13(4): 387–409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichenberg, R.C.Dalton, R.J. (1993), ‘Europeans and the European community: the dynamics of public support for European integration’, International Organization 47(4): 507–534.Google Scholar
Gabel, M. (1998a), ‘Economic integration and mass politics: market liberalization and public attitudes in the European Union’, American Journal of Political Science 42(3): 936–953.Google Scholar
Gabel, M. (1998b), ‘Public support for European integration: an empirical test of five theories’, Journal of Politics 60(2): 333–354.Google Scholar
Gabel, M.Palmer, H.D. (1995), ‘Understanding variation in public support for European integration’, European Journal of Political Research 27(1): 3–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gabel, M.Scheve, K. (2007), ‘Mixed messages: party dissent and mass opinion on European integration’, European Union Politics 8(1): 37–59.Google Scholar
Gabel, M.Whitten, G.D. (1997), ‘Economic conditions, economic perceptions, and public support for European integration’, Political Behavior 19(1): 81–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, A., Shor, B., Bafumi, J.Park, D. (2007), ‘Rich state, poor state, red state, blue state: what’s the matter with Connecticut?’, Quarterly Journal of Political Science 2(4): 345–367.Google Scholar
Hellman, J. (1998), ‘Winners take all: the politics of partial reform in postcommunist transitions’, World Politics 50(2): 203–234.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrmann, R.K., Risse, T.Brewer, M.B. (eds) (2004), Transnational Identities: Becoming European in the EU, Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Hooghe, L.Marks, G. (2004), ‘Does identity or economic rationality drive public opinion on European integration?’, PS Online: Political Science and Politics 37(3): 415–420.Google Scholar
Hooghe, L.Marks, G. (2005), ‘Calculation, community and cues: public opinion on European integration’, European Union Politics 6(4): 419–443.Google Scholar
Hooghe, L.Marks, G. (2009), ‘A postfunctionalist theory of European integration: from permissive consensus to constraining dissensus’, British Journal of Political Science 39(1): 1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, S.C. (2002), ‘Gearing up for hard sell on EU membership’, The Baltic Times, 19 December. Retrieved 17 November 2009 via Lexis-Nexis Academic from http://tinyurl.com/y9nt7ng.Google Scholar
Kahneman, D.Krueger, A.B. (2006), ‘Developments in the measurement of subjective well-being’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 20(1): 3–24.Google Scholar
King, G. (1997), A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem: Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lewis, P.G. (2000), Political Parties in Post-Communist Eastern Europe, London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Markowski, R. (ed.) (2002), System partyjny i zachowania wyborcze: dekada polskich doswiadczen [Party System and Electoral Behavior: A Decade of Polish Experiences], Warszawa: Ebert Stiftung and ISP PAN.Google Scholar
Markowski, R.Tucker, J.A. (2005), ‘Pocketbooks, politics, and parties: a macro and micro analysis of the June 2003 Polish referendum on EU membership’, Electoral Studies 24(3): 409–433.Google Scholar
Marks, G., Hooghe, L., Nelson, M.Edwards, E. (2006), ‘Party competition and European integration in the East and West: different structure, same causality’, Comparative Political Studies 39(2): 155–175.Google Scholar
McLaren, L.M. (2006), Identity, Interests and Attitudes to European Integration, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pacek, A.C., Pop-Eleches, G.Tucker, J.A. (2009), ‘Disenchanted or discerning? Voter turnout in post-communist countries’, Journal of Politics 71(2): 473–491.Google Scholar
Ray, L. (2003), ‘When parties matter: the conditional influence of party positions on voter opinions about European integration’, Journal of Politics 65(4): 978–994.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rohrschneider, R.Whitefield, S. (2006), ‘Political parties, public opinion and European integration in post-communist countries: the state of the art’, European Union Politics 7(1): 141–160.Google Scholar
Steenbergen, M.R., Edwards, E.E.de Vries, C.E. (2007), ‘Who’s cueing whom? Mass-elite linkages and the future of European integration’, European Union Politics 8(1): 13–53.Google Scholar
Steenbergen, M.R.Jones, B.S. (2002), ‘Modeling multilevel data structures’, American Journal of Political Science 46(1): 218–237.Google Scholar
Tucker, J.A., Pacek, A.C.Berinsky, A.J. (2002), ‘Transitional winners and losers: attitudes toward EU membership in post-communist countries’, American Journal of Political Science 46(3): 557–571.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tverdova, Y.V.Anderson, C.J. (2004), ‘Choosing the West? Referendum choices on EU membership in East-Central Europe’, Electoral Studies 23(2): 185–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vachudova, M.A. (2005), Europe Undivided: Democracy, Leverage, and Integration After Communism, New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Vachudova, M.Hooghe, L. (2009), ‘Postcommunist politics in a magnetic field: how transition and EU accession structure party competition on European integration’, Comparative European Politics 7(2): 179–212.Google Scholar
van der Eijk, C.Franklin, M.N. (1996), Choosing Europe? The European Electorate and National Politics in the Face of Union, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar