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A Cross-correlation Analysis of the Cyclicity of Italian Suicide Rates and Online Suicide-related Search Volumes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 March 2020

P. Solano ,
M. Ustulin ,
M. Vichi ,
R. Vecchio ,
A. Poggio ,
M. Pompili ,
G. Serafini  and
M. Amore
P. Solano
Affiliation:
Clinica Psichiatrica, Psychiatry Department Neurosciences–Rehabilitation–Ophthalmology–Genetics–Maternal and Child Health, Genoa, Italy
M. Ustulin
Affiliation:
Kyung Hee University, Department of Medicine, Seoul, Korea ItalyItaly
M. Vichi
Affiliation:
Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Centre for Epidemiology–Surveillance and Health Promotion CNESPS, Rome, Italy
R. Vecchio
Affiliation:
Clinica Psichiatrica, Psychiatry Department Neurosciences–Rehabilitation–Ophthalmology–Genetics–Maternal and Child Health, Genoa, Italy
A. Poggio
Affiliation:
Clinica Psichiatrica, Psychiatry Department Neurosciences–Rehabilitation–Ophthalmology–Genetics–Maternal and Child Health, Genoa, Italy
M. Pompili
Affiliation:
La Sapienza, Department of Neuroscience–Mental Health and Sensory Function, Rome, Italy
G. Serafini
Affiliation:
Clinica Psichiatrica, Psychiatry Department Neurosciences–Rehabilitation–Ophthalmology–Genetics–Maternal and Child Health, Genoa, Italy
M. Amore
Affiliation:
Clinica Psichiatrica, Psychiatry Department Neurosciences–Rehabilitation–Ophthalmology–Genetics–Maternal and Child Health, Genoa, Italy

Abstract

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Introduction

People seeking information and news regarding suicide are likely to use the Internet. There is contrasting evidence about the relationship between the cyclicity of suicide-related search volumes and national suicide-rates in different countries.

Objectives

The objectives were to investigate first the cyclicity of Italian suicides and online suicide-related searches carried out by the Italian population in the same time frame (2008–2012) and analyze the correlation between the two cyclicities.

Aims

The study aimed to gain further insights on suicide-related internet use and its relationships to completed suicides.

Methods

Italian mortality database provided monthly national data concerning suicides (2008–2012). Google trends provided data of online monthly search-volumes of the term “suicide”; “commit suicide”; “how to commit suicide” in Google search (2008–2014).

Results

Seasonal AR model suits the trend of Italian suicides with a periodic 1-year cycle. No specific cyclicity for Google search volumes for “how to commit suicide” and “to commit suicide” was found (ARIMA [0,1,1] and ARIMA [1,0,1] respectively). Google search time series for “suicide” performed with ARIMA (1,1,1) and the cross correlation analysis showed that it lags national suicides of three months (ρ = 0.482, P-value < 0.001).

Conclusions

Online searches for suicide-related terms in Italy are more linked to factors other than suicidality such as personal interest and bereavement. To our knowledge, no previous study reported a lag of three months between online searches for “suicide” and national suicides. This may shed further light on the grieving process being of help in organizing effective supportive strategies for the survivors.

Disclosure of interest

The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

Type
Oral communications: E-mental health; bipolar disorders; child and adolescent psychiatry; eating disorders; intellectual disability and women, gender and mental health
Information
European Psychiatry , Volume 41 , Issue S1: Abstract of the 25th European Congress of Psychiatry , April 2017 , pp. S89
Copyright
Copyright © European Psychiatric Association 2017
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