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The projected number and prevalence of dementia in Japan: Results from the Toyama Dementia Survey

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 March 2020

M. Sekine ,
M. Suzuki ,
H. Kido ,
M. Yamada  and
T. Tatsuse
M. Sekine*
Affiliation:
University of Toyama, Department of Epidemiology and Health Policy, Toyama, Japan
M. Suzuki
Affiliation:
University of Toyama, Department of Neuropsychiatry, Toyama, Japan
H. Kido
Affiliation:
Kido Clinic, Department of Psychiatry, Imizu, Japan
M. Yamada
Affiliation:
University of Toyama, Department of Epidemiology and Health Policy, Toyama, Japan
T. Tatsuse
Affiliation:
University of Toyama, Department of Epidemiology and Health Policy, Toyama, Japan
*
*Corresponding author.

Abstract

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Purposes

The increasing number of dementia is of major public health concern. This study aims to calculate the projected number and prevalence of dementia in Japan, using data from the Toyama Dementia Survey.

Methods

The Toyama Dementia Survey was conducted 6 times in 1983, 1985, 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2014. In the 2014 survey, the subjects were randomly chosen from residents aged 65 or more in Toyama prefecture, with a sampling rate of 0.5%. Of those, 1303 men and women agreed to participate (participation rate: 84.8%). An interview with a screening questionnaire was conducted by public health nurses. Psychiatrists and public health nurses further investigated for the suspected cases of dementia and diagnosed whether the cases had dementia. The 1985–2001 surveys were conducted in a similar way, and, therefore, data from the 1985–2014 surveys were used in the analysis.

Results

The prevalence of dementia in Toyama prefecture increased from 4.7% in 1985 to 15.7% in 2014. Using the age and sex-specific prevalence of dementia in the 2014 survey, the projected number of dementia is approximately 4.8 million (prevalence rate: 14.1%) in 2015, 6.1 million (16.7%) in 2025, and 7.2 million (19.2%) in 2035. Using the age and sex-specific prevalence of dementia as estimated by linear regression models, the projected number of dementia is approximately 4.7 million (13.9%) in 2015, 7.1 million (19.5%) in 2025, and 9.7 million (25.8%) in 2035.

Conclusions

The number of dementia in Japan could double in the next 20 years, which corresponds to 1 in 4 elderly people.

Disclosure of interest

The authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

Type
EW265
Information
European Psychiatry , Volume 33 , Issue S1: Abstracts of the 24th European Congress of Psychiatry , March 2016 , pp. S179 - S180
Copyright
Copyright © European Psychiatric Association 2016
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