Published online by Cambridge University Press: 28 March 2014
In this article we open the black box of governance in the new democracies by examining episodes where these governments are confronted with urgent threats that require swift and decisive state responses. This provides a unique insight into how political and administrative decision-making actually takes place. It enables us to analyse and evaluate the performance of the new institutions at times when it matters most. Specifically, we discuss how three of these new democracies, the Baltic states, have dealt with risks and crises in vital societal and political domains such as health and safety, public order, economic management and foreign policy. All belong to the core of the classic state functions.
The authors acknowledge the intellectual contributions to this article by their many academic and practitioner partners in the CM–Baltic Research Programme. Financial support was given by the Swedish Agency for Civil Emergency Planning and the Foundation for Baltic Sea Studies at Södertörn University College, Sweden.
1 E.g. Pridham, G. and Vanhanen, T. (eds), Democratization in Eastern Europe, London, Routledge, 1994 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Lieven, A., The Baltic Revolution: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Path to Independence, New Haven, Yale University Press, 1994 Google Scholar; Linz, J. J. and Stepan, A., Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996 Google Scholar; Elster, J., Offe, C., and Preuss, U., Institutional Design in Post-communist Societies: Rebuilding the Ship at Sea, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1998 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Zielonka, J. and Pravda, A. (eds), Democratic Consolidation in Eastern Europe: Volume 2 — International and Transnational Factors, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2001 Google Scholar.
2 Hesse, J. J. and Johnson, N. (eds), Constitutional Policy and Change in Europe, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1996 Google Scholar; Verheyen, T. and Coombs, J. (eds), Innovations in Public Management, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 1999 Google Scholar.
3 See, e.g. Dogan, M. and Higley, J. (eds), Elites, Crises and the Origins of Regimes, Lanham, Rowman & Littlefield, 1998 Google Scholar.
4 ’t Hart, P., Stern, E. and Sundelius, B., ‘Crisis Management: An Agenda for Research and Training in Europe’, Cooperation and Conflict, 33 (1998), pp. 207–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
5 Rosenthal, U., Boin, R. A. and Comfort, L. K. (eds), Managing Crises: Threats, Dilemmas, Opportunities, Springfield, Charles C. Thomas, 2001 Google Scholar; Cf. Buzan, B., Waever, O. and de Wilde, J., Security: a New Framework for Analysis, Boulder, Colo., Lynne Rienner, 1998 Google Scholar.
6 Binder, L. et al. (eds), Crises and Sequences of Political Development, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1971 Google Scholar; Almond, G., Flanagan, S. and Mundt, D. (eds), Crisis, Choice and Change, Boston, Little, Brown, 1973 Google Scholar; Linz, J. J. and Stepan, A. (eds), The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978 Google Scholar.
7 See Stern, E. K. and Sundelius, B., ‘Crisis Management in Europe: An Integrated Regional Research and Training Program’, International Studies Perspectives, 3 (2002), pp. 71–88 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
8 Stern, E. K. and Nohrstedt, D. (eds), Crisis Management in Estonia, Stockholm, CRISMART, 1999 Google Scholar; Stern, E. K. and Hansén, D. (eds), Crisis Management in a Transitional Society: The Latvian Experience, Stockholm, CRISMART, 2000 Google Scholar; Stern, E. K. and Newlove, L. M. (eds), Value Complexity and Crisis Management: The Lithuanian Transition, Stockholm, CRISMART, forthcomingGoogle Scholar.
9 L. Binder et al., Crisis and Sequences; E. K. Stern and D. Hansén, ibid.
10 See Gurr, T. R., Why Men Rebel, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1971 Google Scholar; Hirschman, A. O., The Rhetoric of Reaction: Perversity, Futility, Jeopardy, Cambridge, Mass., Belknap Press of Harvard, 1991 Google Scholar.
11 Stern, E. K. and Hansén, D., Crisis Management in a Transitional Society; cf. Edelman, M., The Politics of Misinformation, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2001 Google Scholar.
12 Mandelbaum, M. (ed.), The New European Diasporas: National Minorities and Conflict in Eastern Europe, New York, Council of Foreign Relations, 2000 Google Scholar.
13 Smith, G. (ed.), The National Self-determination of the Baltic States, London, Macmillan, 1996, p. 7 Google Scholar.
14 Raun, T. U., ‘Estonia: Independence Redefined’, in Bremmer, I. and Taras, R. (eds), New States, New Politics, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1997, pp. 404– 33Google Scholar; Pettai, V., ‘Estonia: Positive and Negative Institutional Engineering’, in Zielonka, J. (ed.), Democratic Consolidation in Eastern Europe, Volume 1, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2001, pp. 111–38CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
15 Manssen, G. and Banaszak, B., Minderheitenschutz in Mittel- und Osteuropa, Frankfurt, Lang, 2001 Google Scholar; Pettai, V., ‘Estonia and Latvia: International Influences on Citizenship and Minority Migration’, in Zielonka, J. and Pravda, A. (eds), Democratic Consolidation in Eastern Europe, Volume 2, pp. 257–80Google Scholar.
16 G. Pridham and T. Vanhanen, Democratization in Eastern Europe; N. Muznieks, ‘Latvia: Restoring a State, Rebuilding a Nation’, in I. Bremmer and R. Taras (eds), New States, New Politics, pp. 376–403; A. E. Senn, ‘Lithuania: Rights and Responsibilities of Independence’, in I. Bremmer and R. Taras (eds), ibid., pp. 353–75; Raun, T. U., ‘Estonia: Independence Redefined’; Hoen, H. W., Good Governance in Central and Eastern Europe: The Puzzle of Capitalism by Design, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 2001 Google Scholar; cf. K. von Beyme, ‘Institutional Engineering and Transition to Democracy’, in J. Zielonka, (ed.), Democratic Consolidation in Eastern Europe, Volume 1, pp. 3–24.
17 Fornstedt, A. (ed.), Civil Security and Crisis Management in the Baltic Sea Region, Stockholm, CRISMART, 2002 Google Scholar; Porfiriev, B., ‘Managing Security and Safety Risks in the Baltic Sea Region: A Comparative Study of Institutional Crisis Policy Models’, Risk Management: An International Journal, 3 (2001), pp. 51–62 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
18 J. Tross, ‘Crisis Management in the Republic of Estonia: An Historical Overview’, in E. Stern and D. Nohrstedt (eds), Crisis Management in Estonia, pp. 22–59.
19 T. Jundzis, ‘Institutional History of Crisis Management in Latvia’, in E. Stern and D. Hansén (eds), Crisis Management in a Transitional Society, pp. 39–60.
20 L. Talat-Kelpsa, ‘Institutional History of Crisis Management in Lithuania’, in E. Stern and L. M. Newlove (eds), Value Complexity and Crisis Management.
21 Urbanavicius, D., ‘Lithuania’, in Elgie, R. (ed.), Semi-Presidentialism in Europe, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1999, pp. 150–69CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
22 Easton, D., A Systems Analysis of Political Life, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1965 (1979 edition)Google Scholar.
23 Tarrow, S., The Power of Movement, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1994 Google Scholar.
24 ’t Hart, P., Rosenthal, U. and Kouzmin, A., ‘Crisis Decision-Making: The Centralisation Thesis Revisited’, Administration and Society, 25 (1993), pp. 12–45 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; J. J. Linz and A. Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition.
25 Weber, M., The Theory of Social and Economic Organization, New York, Free Press, 1974 Google Scholar.
26 See also Suleiman, E., ‘Bureaucracy and Democratic Consolidation: Lessons from Eastern Europe’, in Anderson, L. (ed.), Transitions to Democracy, New York, Columbia, University Press, 1999, p. 163 Google Scholar.
27 Rosenthal, U., ’t Hart, P. and Kouzmin, A., ‘The Bureau-politics of Crisis Management’, Public Administration, 69 (1991), pp. 211–33CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
28 Landau, M. and Chisholm, D., ‘The Arrogance of Optimism: Notes on Failure-avoidance Management’, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 3 (1995), pp. 67–80 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
29 Stern, E. K., ‘Probing the Plausibility of Newgroup Syndrome’, in ’t Hart, P., Stern, E. K. and Sundelius, B. (eds), Beyond Groupthink: Political Group Dynamics and Foreign Policymaking, Ann Arbor, Michigan University Press, 1997, pp. 153–90Google Scholar.
30 Cf. J. Zielonka, ‘Foreign Made Democracy’, in J. Zielonka and A. Pravda (eds), Democratic Consolidation in Eastern Europe, pp. 511–32.
31 Haggard, S., Levy, M., Moravcsik, A. and Nicolaidis, K., ‘Integrating the Two Halves of Europe: Theories of Interests, Bargaining and Institutions’, in Keohane, R., Nye, J. and Hoffmann, S. (eds), After the Cold War: International Institutions and State Strategies in Europe 1989–1991, Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1996, pp. 173–95Google Scholar.
32 Saro, G. and Navarro, M., ‘Steel Restructuring in Spain, 1979–1995: The Attrition Game’, in Bovens, M., ’t Hart, P. and Peters, B. G. (eds), Success and Failure in Public Governance, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 2001, pp. 105–25Google Scholar; S. Pérez, ‘The Liberalisation of Finance in Spain: From Interventionalism to the Market’, in M. Bovens, P. ’t Hart and B. G. Peters (eds), ibid., pp. 383–400.
33 Keohane, R. and Milner, H. (eds), Internationalization and Domestic Politics, New York, Cambridge University Press, 1996 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; A. Pravda, ‘Introduction’, in J. Zielonka and A. Pravda (eds), Democratic Consolidation in Eastern Europe, Volume 2, pp. 1–28.
34 J. Zielonka (ed.), Democratic Consolidation in Eastern Europe, Volume 1.
35 S. Haggard, M. Levy, A. Moravcsik and K. Nicolaidis, ‘Integrating the Two Halves of Europe’, p. 182.
36 As this article is being written, the issue is not definitely resolved. The government may still reverse its position and/or renege on its commitment, as it has done in the past.
37 R. Keohane and H. Milner, Internalionalization and Domestic Politics, p. 258.
38 D. Easton, A Systems Analysis of Political Life.
39 Rosenthal, U., ’t Hart, P., Van Duin, M., Otten, M., Kroon, M. B. R. and Overdijk, W. J., Complexity in Urban Crisis Management, London, James & James, 1994 Google Scholar.