VP135 Clustering Surgical Indicators And Predictors Of Catastrophic Expenses

Abstract

INTRODUCTION:

Increasing access to surgical care is crucial in improving the general health status of a population. Despite studies indicating the cross-country differences of general health indicators, there is a scarcity of knowledge focusing on the cross-country differences of surgical indicators. This study aims to classify countries according to surgical care indicators and identify risk predictors of catastrophic surgical care expenditures.

METHODS:

For this study, data were used from the World Health Organization and the World Bank on 177 countries. The following variable groups were chosen: total density of medical imaging technologies, surgical workforce distribution, number of surgical procedures, and risk of catastrophic surgical care expenditures. The k-means clustering algorithm was used to classify countries according to the surgical indicators. The optimal number of clusters was determined with a within-cluster sum of squares and a scree plot. A Silhouette index was used to examine clustering performance, and a random forest decision tree approach was used to determine risk predictors of catastrophic surgical care expenditures.

RESULTS:

The surgical care indicator results delineated the countries into four groups according to each country's income level. The cluster plot indicated that most high-income countries (for example, United States, United Kingdom, Norway) are in the first cluster. The second cluster consisted of four countries: Japan, San Marino, Marshall Islands, and Monaco. Low-income countries (for example, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Kenya) and middle-income countries (for example, Brazil, Turkey, Hungary) are represented in the third and fourth clusters, respectively. The third cluster had a high Silhouette index value (.75). The densities of both surgeons and medical imaging technology were risk determiners of catastrophic surgical care expenditures (Area Under Curve = .82).

CONCLUSIONS:

Our results demonstrate a need for more effective health plans if the differences between countries surgical care indicators are to be overcome. We recommend that health policymakers reconsider distribution strategies for the surgical workforce and medical imaging technology in the interest of accessibility and equality.