Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T16:51:19.740Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Ethnic Bargaining in the Shadow of Third-Party Intervention

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 July 2003

Rupen Cetinyan
Get access

Abstract

Relatively weak ethnic groups mobilize and rebel against their governments just as frequently (or infrequently) as strong ones. However, such seemingly irrational behavior is not inconsistent with a rationalist approach to ethnic separatism. A bargaining model that treats all the relevant actors as strategic players suggests that power disparities between an ethnic minority and the state—including those based on a group's access to third-party intervention—should affect how the state treats the group but not the likelihood that the group rebels against the state. Greater mistreatment by the state should not be correlated with greater external intervention on a group's behalf. New empirical support for the model is drawn from the Minorities at Risk data set, and the discussion has implications for the field of international relations beyond ethnic conflict to extended deterrence more generally.

Type
Articles
Information
International Organization , Volume 56 , Issue 3 , Summer 2002 , pp. 645 - 677
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2002

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bartkus, Viva Ona. 1999. The Dynamic of Secession. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bates, Robert H., and Weingast, Barry R.. 1995. Rationality and Interpretation: The Politics of Transition. Paper presented at the 97th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August, Chicago.Google Scholar
Blainey, Geoffrey. 1988. The Causes of War. New York: The Free Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Breton, Albert, ed. 1995. Nationalism and Rationality. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Carment, David. 1994. The Ethnic Dimension in World Politics: Theory, Policy and Early Warning. Third World Quarterly 15 (4):551–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carment, David. 1996. The Interstate Dimensions of Secession and Irredenta: A Crisis-Based Approach. Paper presented at the 37th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, April, San Diego, Calif.Google Scholar
Carment, David, and Patrick, James. 1995. Internal Constraints and Interstate Ethnic Conflict: Toward a Crisis-Based Assessment of Irredentism. Journal of Conflict Resolution 39 (1):82–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cetinyan, Rupen. 1997. Strategy of Ethnic Conflict. Ph.D. diss., University of California, Los Angeles.Google Scholar
Cetinyan, Rupen. 2000a. Choice, Commitment, and Information Problems in Settling Civil Wars: Kurdish Iraqi Conflict, 1943–1975. Unpublished manuscript. University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pa.Google Scholar
Cetinyan, Rupen. 2000b. Explaining Ethnic Violence. Unpublished manuscript, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pa.Google Scholar
Cetinyan, Rupen. 2001. Intrastate Ethnic Relations: The Role of Private Information and Uncertainty. Unpublished manuscript, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pa.Google Scholar
De Figueiredo, Rui, and Weingast, Barry. 1999. The Rationality of Fear: Political Opportunism and Ethnic Conflict. In Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, edited by Walter, Barbara F. and Snyder, Jack. 261–302. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Dion, Stéphane. 1995. The Reemergence of Secessionism: Lessons from Quebec. In Nationalism and Rationality, edited by Breton, Albert, 116–142. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Dion, Stéphane. 1996. Why is Secession Difficult in Well-Established Democracies? Lessons from Quebec. British Journal of Political Science 26 (April):269–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. Ethnic War as a Commitment Problem. Paper presented at the 96th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August, New York.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1998. Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict. In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by Lake, David A. and Rothchild, Donald, 107–26. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 1996. Explaining Inter-ethnic Cooperation. American Political Science Review 90 (4):715–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 1999. Weak States, Rough Terrain, and Large Scale Ethnic Violence. Paper presented at the 101st Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August, Atlanta, Ga.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D., and Laitin, David D.. 2001. Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. Paper presented at the 103rd Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August, San Francisco.Google Scholar
Feste, Karen. 1992. Expanding the Frontiers of Superpower Intervention in the Cold War. Westport, Conn.: Praeger.Google Scholar
Furtado, Charles F Jr., 1994. Nationalism and Foreign Policy in Ukraine. Political Science Quarterly 109 (1):81–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik. 1999. War Is in the Error Term. International Organization 53 (3):567–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1993a. Minorities at Risk: A Global View of Ethnopolitical Conflicts. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1993b. Why Minorities Rebel: A Global Analysis of Communal Mobilization And Conflict Since 1945. International Political Science Review 14 (2):161–201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 2000. Peoples Versus States: Minorities at Risk in the New Century. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert and Harff, Barbara. 1994. Ethnic Conflict in World Politics. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline, Hoddie, Matthew, and Rothchild, Donald. 2001. Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables. International Organization 55 (1):183–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hechter, Michael. 1992. The Dynamics of Secession. Acta Sociologica 35 (4):267–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hechter, Michael. 1995. Explaining Nationalist Violence. Nations and Nationalism 1 (1):53–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hechter, Michael and Levi, Margaret. 1979. The Comparative Analysis of Ethnoregional Movements, Ethnic and Racial Studies 2 (3):260–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heraclides, Alexis. 1990. Secessionist Minorities and External Involvement. International Organization 44(3):341–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heraclides, Alexis. 1991. The Self-Determination of Minorities in International Politics. London: Frank Cass Publishers.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald L. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald L. 1991. Irredentas and Secessions: Adjacent Phenomena, Neglected Connections. In Irredentism and International Politics, edited by Chazan, Naomi, 1–22. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1988. Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1997. Reputations and Deterrence: A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment. Security Studies 7 (1):72–99CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1988. War and Misperception. Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18 (4):675–700.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1997. System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kahler, Miles. Rationality in International Relations. 1998. International Organization 52 (4):919–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1998. Ethnic Dissimilation and Its International Diffusion. In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by Lake, David A. and Rothchild, Donald, 35–60. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laitin, David D. 1995. National Revivals and Violence. Archives Europeennes De Sociologie 36 (1):3–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laitin, David D. 1999. Somalia: Civil War and International Intervention. In Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, edited by Walter, Barbara F. and Snyder, Jack, 146–80. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Lake, David A., and Rothchild, Donald. 1996. Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict. International Security 21 (2):41–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David A. 1998a. Spreading Fear: The Genesis of Transnational Ethnic Conflict. In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by Lake, David A. and Rothchild, Donald, 3–32. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, Margaret and Hechter, Michael. 1985. A Rational Choice Approach to the Rise and Decline of Ethnoregional Parties. In New Nationalisms of the Developed West: Toward Explanation, edited by Tiryakian, Edward A. and Rogowski, Ronald, 128–146. Boston: Allen & Unwin.Google Scholar
McAuley, Alastair. 1979. Economic Welfare in the Soviet Union: Poverty, Living Standards, and Inequality. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.Google Scholar
Meadwell, Hudson. 1991. A Rational Choice Approach to Political Regionalism. Comparative Politics 23 (4):401–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Minahan, James. 1996. Nations Without States: A Historical Dictionary of Contemporary National Movements. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Publishing Group.Google Scholar
Moore, Will H., and Davis, David R.. 1998. Transnational Ethnic Ties and Foreign Policy. In The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, edited by Lake, David A. and Rothchild, Donald, 89–103. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peceny, Mark and Stanley, William. 2001. Liberal Social Reconstruction and the Resolution of Civil Wars in Central America. International Organization 55 (1): 149–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posen, Barry R. 1993. The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict. Survival 35 (1):27–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Regan, Patrick M. 1996a. Conditions of Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (2):336–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Regan, Patrick M. 1996b. Decision by Outside Actors to Intervene in Internal Conflicts. Paper presented at the 98th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August, San Francisco.Google Scholar
Regan, Patrick M. 1998. Choosing to Intervene: Outside Intervention into Internal Conflicts as a Policy Choice. Journal of Politics 60 (3):754–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ringmar, Erik. 1996a. Identity, Interests and Action: A Cultural Explanation of Sweden's Intervention in the Thirty Year's War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ringmar, Erik. 1996b. Russia: Territory and Identity Crisis. Nations and Nationalism 2 (3):453–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roeder, Philip G. 1996. Institutions and Ethnicity: A Realist Theory of Ethno-Constitutionalism. Paper presented at the 98th Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August, San Francisco.Google Scholar
Rosenau, James N. 1968. The Concept of Intervention. Journal of International Affairs 22 (2):165–76.Google Scholar
Rosenau, James N. 1969. Intervention as a Scientific Concept. Journal of Conflict Resolution 13 (2):149–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saideman, Stephen M. 1997. Explaining the International Relations of Secessionist Conflicts: Vulnerability versus Ethnic Ties. International Organization 51 (4):721–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schelling, Thomas. 1984. Choice and Consequence: Perspectives on an Errant Economist. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1996. To Intervene or Not to Intervene. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1):16–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snyder, Jack, and Jervis, Robert. 1999. Civil War and the Security Dilemma. In Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, edited by Walter, Barbara F. and Snyder, Jack, 15–37. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Treisman, D. S. 1997. Russia's ‘Ethnic Revival:’ The Separatist Activism of Regional Leaders. World Politics 49 (2):212–249.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tsebelis, George. 1989. The Abuse of Probability in Political Analysis: The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy. The American Political Science Review 83 (1):77–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Evera, Stephen. 1994. Hypotheses on Nationalism and War. International Security 18 (4):3–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 2000. Bargaining and War. American Journal of Political Science 44 (3):469–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walt, Stephen M. 1999. Rigor or Rigor Mortis? Rational Choice and Security Studies. International Security 23 (4):5–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 1997. The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement. International Organization 51 (3):335–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 1999. Designing Transitions from Civil War. In Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention, edited by Walter, Barbara F. and Snyder, Jack, 38–69. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Werner, Suzanne. 1999. Deterring Third-Party Intervention. Paper presented at the 10th Annual Meeting of the Peace Science Society, September, Ann Arbor, Mich.Google Scholar
Werner, Suzanne. 2000. Deterring Intervention: The Stakes of War and Third-Party Involvement. American Journal of Political Science 44 (4):720–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar