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Intergovernmental Organization and the Preservation of Peace: A Comment on the Abuse of Methodology

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 May 2009

Samuel A. Bleicher
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Extract

One of the most heartening trends in research on international organizations and international affairs is the current emphasis upon an empirical, as opposed to a merely theoretical, approach to an understanding of problems. This approach involves a series of distinctive elements. A hypothesis must be offered and its terms must be defined in ways that permit observation of events and collection of data on the presence or absence of the defined items. Data must be collected systematically, rather than eclectically, to ensure the consideration of those events which do not fit the hypothesis as well as those which do. Wherever possible data is reduced to numerical form and various statistical tests are applied to determine, for example, positive or negative correlations, and to compute the statistical significance of those correlations. Conclusions are then drawn on the basis of the results of the statistical operations. While such efforts are often time-consuming and tedious, even with the aid of a computer, the results of such an effort have the enormous value of demonstrably reflecting reality. Presumably, these results can be replicated by other observers and, since the methodology has been explicitly articulated, methodological defects can be detected and their effect on the results can be fully evaluated.

Type
Research Article
Information
International Organization , Volume 25 , Issue 2 , Spring 1971 , pp. 298 - 305
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 1971

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References

1 Singer, J. David and Wallace, Michael, “Intergovernmental Organization and the Preservation of Peace, 1816–1964: Some Bivariate Relationships,” International Organization, Summer 1970 (Vol. 24, No. 3), pp. 520–547CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

2 Ibid.; Wallace, Michael and Singer, J. David, “Intergovernmental Organization in the Global System, 1815–1964: A Quantitative Description,” International Organization, Spring 1970 (Vol. 24, No. 2), pp. 239–287CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Russett, Bruce M., Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin, “National Political Units in the Twentieth Century: A Standardized List,” American Political Science Review, 09 1968 (Vol. 62, No. 3), pp. 932–951CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Singer, J. David and Small, Melvin, “The Composition and Status Ordering of the International System: 1815–1940,” World Politics, 01 1966 (Vol. 18, No. 2), pp. 236–282CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

3 No very explicit rationale is given for this decision although the choice seems quite reasonable. See Singer, and Wallace, , International Organization, Vol. 24, No. 3, footnote 6 and accompanying textGoogle Scholar.

4 This data was extensively presented in Wallace, and Singer, , International Organization, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 239–287CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

5 Charter of the United Nations, article 2, paragraph 1.

6 Ibid., article 2, paragraphs 3 and 4, and article 33.

7 The authors have stated their principles as follows:

An analysis which is based on only two sets of variables must, of necessity, be incomplete. That is, because other factors may be intervening to affect the outcome, there is always the chance that any correlation which is found between international organization and fluctuations in the incidence of war might well be a spurious one. … We have no illusion that we are discovering the causal connections—or absence thereof—between international organization and war; we have only an appreciation that any time we can ascertain the statistical relationship between two sets of variables over time, we are enlarging the base upon which a fuller understanding must ultimately rest. [P. 522.]

8 Consider, for example, a recent survey by the American Council on Education which shows substantial changes in student attitudes on some basic political issues. New York Times, December 20, 1970, p. 42.

9 See my article, “The Legal Significance of Re-Citation of General Assembly Resolutions,” American Journal of International Law, 07 1969 (Vol. 63, No. 3), pp. 444–478CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and my note, “Computerized Data on General Assembly Resolutions,” American Journal of International Law, 01 1968 (Vol. 62, No. 1), pp. 143–144CrossRefGoogle Scholar.