Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-s2hrs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-11T04:17:30.605Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Climate change and its impacts: growing stress factors for human societies

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2010

Martin Beniston
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The realization that human beings need to be concerned about the only ‘life-support system’ that the Earth and its environment provides stems perhaps in part from the fact that, until fairly recently, the evolution of humankind was largely dependent on the quality of the environment and the resources it provides in terms of water, food, and favourable health conditions. These are as vital as ever, despite current levels of technology and apparent resilience in the face of often degraded environments in many parts of the world. Today, the conditions for human sustainability (i.e. water quality and quantity, food security, and health) are potentially under threat as a result of numerous human-induced factors; among these, climate change is certainly one of the more durable aspects of anthropogenic disruptions to natural resources. This article will therefore focus on the possible evolution of climate in the course of the twenty-first century and on a number of key climate impacts that may determine the future course of human societies, as well as issues that may confront them such as rivalries over natural resources and possible environmentally driven conflicts and migrations.

Type
Environment
Information
International Review of the Red Cross , Volume 92 , Issue 879: Environment , September 2010 , pp. 557 - 568
Copyright
Copyright © International Committee of the Red Cross 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Commoner, Barry, ‘Rapid population growth and environmental stress’, in International Journal of Health Services, Vol. 21, No. 2, 1991, pp. 199–227Google Scholar; Pebley, Anne R., ‘Demography and the environment’, in Demography, Vol. 35, No. 4, 1998, pp. 377–389Google Scholar.

2 UNESCO, International Conference on World Water Resources at the Beginning of the 21st Century, Paris, 3–6 June 1998; United Nations, Millennium Development Goals Report 2009, New York, 2009, 60 pp.

3 Susan Solomon et al. (eds), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge, 2007, 996 pp.

4 E.g. Brankovi, Cedoć and Palmer, Tim N., ‘Seasonal skill and predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensemble’, in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 126(B), No. 567, 2000, pp. 2035–2067Google Scholar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J., Déqué, Michel, and Piedelievre, Jean-Philippe, ‘Model and multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST’, in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 126(B), No. 567, 2000, pp. 2069–2089Google Scholar; Derome, Jacques et al. , ‘Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models’, in Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 39, No. 4, 2001, pp. 56–68Google Scholar.

5 Lambert, Steven J. and Boer, George J., ‘CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models’, in Climate Dynamics, Vol. 17, No. 2–3, 2001, pp. 83–106CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

6 Nebojsa Nakićenović et al., IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 599 pp.

7 Ibid.

8 Beniston, Martin, ‘Climatic change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts’, in Climatic Change, Vol. 59, No. 1–2, 2003, pp. 5–31CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

9 Martin Beniston, Climatic Change and Impacts: A Review Focusing on Switzerland, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht and Boston, 2004, 296 pp.

10 S. Solomon et al., above note 3.

11 Ibid.

12 FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture, FAO Agriculture Series, Rome, 2000, 329 pp.

13 McMichael, Anthony J. and Kovats, R. Sari, ‘Climate change and climate variability: adaptations to reduce adverse climate change impacts’, in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 61, No. 1, 2000, pp. 49–64CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

14 McMichael, Anthony J. and Haines, Andrew, ‘Global climate change: the potential effects on health’, in British Medical Journal, Vol. 315, No. 7111, 1997, pp. 805–809CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

15 Epstein, Paul R. et al. , ‘Biological and physical signs of climate change: focus on mosquito-borne diseases’, in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 79, No. 3, March 1998, pp. 409–4172.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

16 Martens, Pim et al. , ‘Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria’, in Global Environmental Change, Vol. 9, Suppl. 1, 1999, pp. 89–107CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

17 World Health Organization (WHO), World Health Report 1999, WHO, Geneva, 1999, 121 pp.

18 Craig, Marlies H., Snow, R.W., and LeSueur, David, ‘A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in Africa’, in Parasitology Today, Vol. 15, No. 3, 1999, pp. 105–111CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

19 Kay, Brian H. et al. , ‘Rearing temperature influences flavivirus vector competence of mosquitoes’, in Medical and Veterinary Entomology, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1989, pp. 415–422CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

20 WHO report, above note 17.

21 Poveda, Germán et al. , ‘Coupling between annual and ENSO timescales in the malaria–climate association in Colombia’, in Environmental Health Perspective, Vol. 109, No. 5, 2001, pp. 489–493Google ScholarPubMed.

22 M.L. Wilson et al., Vector-borne Disease Associated with Irrigation, Agriculture, and Environmental Change in Southeastern Turkey: Application of Satellite Image Analysis, Yale-New Haven Medical Center Report, 2001.

23 A.J. McMichael and R.S. Kovats, above note 13.

24 Myers, Norman, ‘Environmental refugees in a globally warmed world’, in BioScience, Vol. 43, No. 11, 1993, pp. 752–761CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

25 A.R. Pebley, above note 1.

26 N. Myers, above note 24.

27 Michael J.G. Parnwell, Population Movements and the Third World, Routledge, London, 1993, 194 pp.

28 N. Myers, above note 24.