Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-q99xh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T04:19:24.315Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

District magnitude and electoral mobilization: how uneven electoral systems shift the focus of campaign efforts by political parties

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 May 2021

Michio Umeda*
Affiliation:
Faculty of Global Media Studies, Komazawa University, 1-23-1 Komazawa, Setagaya, Tokyo154-8525, Japan
*
Corresponding author. E-mail: michio.umeda@gmail.com

Abstract

This paper shows how an uneven electoral system in Japan shapes political parties' mobilization strategies by utilizing a majoritarian electoral system with heterogeneous district magnitudes, which in turn contributes to the gap in turnout across districts. Scholars have long debated the relationship between electoral systems and turnout; it is known that countries with proportional representation electoral systems – those with larger district magnitude – tend to have higher turnout rates than countries with majoritarian electoral systems, especially single-member district (SMD) systems. The current discussion on turnout and district magnitude of an electoral system assumes a monotonic relationship between these factors: the larger the district magnitude of the electoral system, the more (or less) participatory the electorate, due to competitiveness and mobilization efforts by political parties and other relevant groups. In contrast, this paper shows a mixed relationship between district magnitude of the electoral system and party mobilization and subsequent turnout, investigating a majoritarian electoral system with uneven district magnitude in the Japanese Upper House. During the survey period, the party system in Japan consisted of two major parties and a few smaller parties; consequently, the two major parties focused their efforts on SMDs in order to maximize their seat share, while smaller parties focused their resource on districts electing more than two members (where they have some chance to elect their party's candidates). In combination, these party strategies have resulted in the lowest mobilization and turnout rates in districts with two members.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aldrich, JH (1995) Why Parties?: The Origin and Transformation of Political Parties in America. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ariga, K, Horiuchi, Y, Mansilla, R and Umeda, M (2016) No sorting, no advantage: regression discontinuity estimates of incumbency advantage in Japan. Electoral Studies 43, 2131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, A and Jones, K (2015) Explaining fixed effects: random effects modeling of time-series cross-sectional and panel data. Political Science Research and Methods 3, 133153.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, RM and McCaffrey, DF (2002) Bias reduction in standard errors for linear regression with multi-stage samples. Survey Methodology 28, 169181.Google Scholar
Blais, A and Carty, RK (1990) Does proportional representation foster voter turnout? European Journal of Political Research 18, 167181.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burden, BC (2004) Candidate positioning in US Congressional elections. British Journal of Political Science 34, 211227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, JM and Siavelis, PM (2005) Insurance for good losers and the survival of Chile's concertacion. Latin American Politics and Society 47, 122.Google Scholar
Christensen RHB (2019) Ordinalregression models for ordinal data. R package version 2019.12-10. Available at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ordinal.Google Scholar
Clark, TS and Linzer, DA (2015) Should I use fixed or random effects? Political Science Research and Methods 3, 399408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copeland, GW (1983) Activating voters in congressional elections. Political Behavior 5, 391401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, GW (1997) Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, GW (2015) Electoral rules, mobilization, and turnout. Annual Review of Political Science 18, 4968.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, GW and Munger, MC (1989) Closeness, expenditures, and turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections. American Political Science Review 83, 217231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, KE and Schoppa, LJ (2002) Interaction effects in mixed-member electoral systems: theory and evidence from Germany, Japan, and Italy. Comparative Political Studies 35, 10271053.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Denver, DT and Hands, HTG (1974) Marginality and turnout in British General Elections. British Journal of Political Science 4, 1735.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duverger, M (1954) Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State. Translated by North B and North R. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Eggers, AC (2015) Proportionality and turnout: evidence from French municipalities. Comparative Political Studies 48, 135167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Electoral System Design Database (developed by International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance). Available at http://www.idea.int/data-tools/data/electoral-system-design (Accessed 19 February 2019).Google Scholar
Endersby, JW, Galatas, SE and Rackaway, CB (2002) Closeness counts in Canada: voter participation in the 1993 and 1997 federal elections. Journal of Politics 64, 610631.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferrara, F, Herron, E and Nishikawa, M (2005) Mixed Electoral Systems: Contamination and Its Consequences. London: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fujimura, N (2016) Seito no senkyo senryaku to tonai no shigen haibun: Naikaku sori daijin ni yoru sekyo kikanchu no kohosha homon (The electoral strategies and resource allocation of political parties: prime minister's campaign visit during the official election period). Nempo Seijigaku 67, 99119.Google Scholar
Gimpel, JG, Kaufmann, KM and Pearson-Merkowitz, S (2007) Battleground states versus blackout states: the behavioral implications of modern presidential campaigns. Journal of Politics 69, 786797.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, DP and Gerber, AS (2015) Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Hirano, H, Kobayashi, Y, Ikeda, K and Yamada, M (2016) Nation-wide longitudinal survey study on voting behavior in an age of political change (JES IV SSJDA version), 2007–2011 (dataset). Social Science Japan Data Archive. Available at https://ssjda.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp/Direct/gaiyo.php?lang=eng&eid=0999 (Accessed 3 September 2017).Google Scholar
Horiuchi, Y and Saito, J (2003) Reapportionment and redistribution: consequences of electoral reform in Japan. American Journal of Political Science 47, 669682.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ikeda, K, Kobayashi, Y and Hirano, H (2007) Nation-wide longitudinal survey study on voting behavior in the early 21st century, 2001–2005 (dataset). Social Science Japan Data Archive. Available at https://ssjda.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp/Direct/gaiyo.php?lang=eng&eid=0530 (Accessed 3 September 2017).Google Scholar
Karp, JA, Banducci, SA and Bowler, S (2008) Getting out the vote: party mobilization in a comparative perspective. British Journal of Political Science 38, 91112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laakso, M and Taagepera, R (1979) ‘Effective’ number of parties. Comparative Political Studies 12, 327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ladner, A and Milner, H (1999) Do voters turn out more under proportional than majoritarian systems? The evidence from Swiss communal elections. Electoral Studies 18, 235250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, A (1994) Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945–1990. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, A (1999) Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in Thirty-Six Countries. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Lipsitz, K (2009) The consequences of battleground and ‘spectator’ state residency for political participation. Political Behavior 31, 187209.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maeda, K (2008) Re-examining the contamination effect of Japan's mixed electoral system using the treatment-effects model. Electoral Studies 27, 723731.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maeda, K (n.d.) The 2016 election for the Japanese House of Councillors (dataset). Available at http://politicalscience.unt.edu/~maeda/docs/san16dist_public.csv (Accessed 3 September 2017).Google Scholar
Milner, H and Ladner, A (2006) Can PR voting serve as a shelter against declining turnout? Evidence from Swiss municipal elections. International Political Science Review 27, 2945.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muraoka, T and Barceló, J (2019) The effect of district magnitude on turnout: quasi-experimental evidence from nonpartisan elections under SNTV. Party Politics 25, 632639.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Natori, R, Fukumoto, K, Kishimoto, K, Tsuji, A, Tsutsumi, H and Horiuchi, Y (2014) The development and the use of the data base regarding the regular election of the Japanese Upper House. Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies (Senkyo Kenkyu 30, 105115.Google Scholar
Natori, R, Fukumoto, K, Kishimoto, K, Tsuji, A, Tsutsumi, H and Horiuchi, Y (2016) The database for comparative political research. Available at http://db.cps.kutc.kansai-u.ac.jp/ (Accessed 3 September 2017).Google Scholar
Pustejovsky, JE and Tipton, E (2018) Small-sample methods for cluster-robust variance estimation and hypothesis testing in fixed effects models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 36, 672683.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rainey, C (2015) Strategic mobilization: why proportional representation decreases voter mobilization. Electoral Studies 37, 8698.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reed, SR (1990) Structure and behaviour: extending Duverger's Law to the Japanese case. British Journal of Political Science 20, 335356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenstone, SJ and Hansen, JM (1993) Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillan Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Sato, R (2011) Syugiin oyobi Sangiin niokeru Ippyo no Kakusa (Disparity in the vote weight at the House of Representatives and the House of Councils). Chosa to Jyoho (Research and Information) – Issue Brief 714, 112.Google Scholar
Scheiner, E (2006) Democracy without Competition in Japan: Opposition Failure in a One-Party Dominant State. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Scheiner, E, Smith, DM and Thies, MF (2018) The 2017 election results: an earthquake, a typhoon, and another landslide. In Pekkanen, RJ, Reed, SR, Scheiner, E and Smith, DM (eds), Japan Decides 2017: The Japanese General Election. London: Palgrave Macmillan. pp. 2950.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shachar, R and Nalebuff, B (1999) Follow the leader: theory and evidence on political participation. The American Economic Review 89, 525547.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomasu, S (2012) Zero Kara No Senkyo Hissyo Manyuaru (Election Essential Manual from Zero). Tokyo: Shuwa System.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link
Link