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Malthusian Models and Irish History

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 May 2010

Joel Mokyr
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Abstract

Malthusian models occupy a central position in the interpretation and analysis of long-term economic and demographic change in preindustrial societies. The models are logically plausible and attractive, but ultimately they will have to be confronted with systematic evidence before being accepted. In this paper results are reported that cast some doubt on these models in the case of prefamine Ireland. The results indicate that the evidence supporting Malthusian views is not strong, and that the modus operandi of the nexus between economic and demographic variables is probably far more complex than is implied in standard Malthusian models.

Type
Papers Presented at the Thirty-Ninth Annual Meeting of the Economic History Association
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 40 , Issue 1 , March 1980 , pp. 159 - 166
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1980

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References

1 Due to space limitations, all footnotes and tables documenting claims and assertions made in this paper have been omitted. The evidence, data, and techniques underlying the conclusions and the doubts expressed in this paper can be found in the following papers by the author: “Love and Life among the Potatoes—An Analysis of Demographic and Economic Factors in Prefamine Ireland,” unpublished manuscript, Northwestern Univ., Dec. 1978Google Scholar; “The Deadly Fungus: An Econometric Investigation into the Short-Term Demographic Impact of the Irish Famine,” in Research in Population Economics, Simon, Julian, ed., vol. 2, forthcoming, 1979Google Scholar; “Poverty and Population in Prefamine Ireland: Old Issues and New Data,” unpublished manuscript, Northwestern Univ., March 1978Google Scholar; “Industrialization and Poverty in Ireland and the Netherlands: Some Notes toward a Comparative Study,” Journal of Inlerdisclipinary History (forthcoming, 1980); “Irish History with the Potato,” unpublished manuscript, Stanford Univ. Sept. 1979Google Scholar.

2 In research carried out after this paper was completed, it was found that infant mortality rates conform more to the Malthusian model than do marriage propensities or birthrates. Rural infant mortality rates tend to covary negatively with the diffusion of cottage industry and the availability of potatoes.

3 It could; and probably will, be argued that there are inherent dangers in estimating dynamic relations from cross-sectional data. These dangers are obvious, but it is far from clear whether they are large enough to render cross-sectional data useless. Some of the issues arising from the approach taken here are dealt with in Mokyr, “Irish History.” One intuitive justification for the use of crosssectional data for the present purpose is that the various counties, on the eve of the famine, reflect different degrees of economic development and can therefore be viewed as existing at different “points in time.” The validity of this view is jeopardized by the existence of internal migration, and my procedures are only correct as long as internal migration does not reach large dimensions. Internal migration was neither negligible nor overwhelming before the famine: in 1841 almost 5 percent of the Irish population were living in counties in which they were not born.