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Estimating Crop Yields from Probate Inventories: An Example from EastAnglia, 1585–1735

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 May 2010

Mark Overton
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Abstract

There is at present no series of crop yields available for early modern England. This paper describes a method for calculating estimates of grain yields in bushels per acre using data derived from English probate inventories. Results are presented of 10-year average yields for wheat, rye, barley, oats, and peas for the two counties of Norfolk and Suffolk during 1587–98, 1628–40, and 1660–1735. These results are compared with other yield figures for the periods before and after these dates, and used to revise existing estimates of the progress of productivity changes.

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Articles
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 39 , Issue 2 , June 1979 , pp. 363 - 378
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1979

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References

The author is a Fellow of Emmanuel College, Cambridge. He wishes to thank Alan Baker, Sarah Banks, Michael Chisholm, Bob Fogel, Frank Kelly, and Peter Linden for their advice and help with this paper and with the method it describes. The responsibility for errors is his alone.

1 They exist for both earlier and later periods. For the Middle Ages, examples are: Titow, Jan Z., Winchester Yields: A Study in Medieval Agricultural Productivity (Cambridge, 1972)Google Scholar; Brandon, Peter F., “Cereal Yields on the Sussex Estates of Battle Abbey during the Later Middle Ages,” Economic History Review, 2nd ser., 25 (Aug. 1972), 403–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Farmer, David L., “Grain Yields on the Winchester Manors in the Later Middle Ages,” Economic History Review, 2nd ser., 30 (Nov. 1977), 555–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar. A variety of sources are available for the nineteenth century; see, for example, Overton, Mark, “The 1801 Crop Returns for Cornwall,” in Havinden, Michael A., ed., Husbandry and Marketing in the South West, 1500–1800 (Exeter, 1973), pp. 39–62Google Scholar, Smith, Wilfred, An Economic Geography of Great Britain (London, 1949), p. 31Google Scholar, Jones, Eric L. and Healy, M. J. R., “Wheat Yields in England 1815–59,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 120 (1962), 184–90Google Scholar, and Hall, Alfred D., The Book the Rothamsted Experiments (2nd ed.; London, 1919).Google Scholar

2 Kerridge, Eric, The Agricultural Revolution (London, 1967), p. 328.Google Scholar

3 Ibid., quoting: (p. 116, n. 1) Marshall, William, A Review and Complete Abstract of the Reports to the Board of Agriculture from the Southern and Peninsular Departments of England (London, 1815)Google Scholar; (p. 208, n. 5) Plot, Robert, The Natural History of Oxfordshire (Oxford, 1676); (p. 116, n. 1)Google ScholarNorden, John, The Surveyor's Dialogue (London, 1618); and (p. 329Google Scholar, n. 4) Fussell, George E., ed., “Robert Loder's Farm Accounts, 1610–20,” Camden Society, 3rd ser., 53 (1936).Google Scholar

4 Kerridge, Revolution, pp. 329, 331; idem, The Farmers of Old England (London, 1973), p. 108.

5 Timmer, C. Peter, “The Turnip, the New Husbandry, and the English Agricultural Revolution,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 83 (Aug. 1969), 375–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

6 Deane, Phyllis and Cole, William A., British Economic Growth, 1688–1959 (2nd ed.; Cambridge, 1967), p. 62.Google Scholar

7 Bennett, Merrill K., “British Wheat Yields per acre for Seven Centuries,” Economic History, 3 (Feb. 1935), 12–29Google Scholar, reprinted in Walter E. Minchinton, ed., Essays in Agrarian History, Vol. I (Newton Abbot, 1968), pp. 54–72.

8 Percentages calculated from data in Timmer, “Agricultural Revolution,” pp. 391–92.

9 For example, Bowden, Peter, “Agricultural Prices, Farm Profits, and Rents,” in Thirsk, Joan, ed., The Agrarian History of England and Wales, Vol. IV, 1500–1640 (Cambridge, 1967), p. 606Google Scholar, citing Bennett; and Chambers, Jonathan D. and Mingay, Gordon E., The Agricultural Revolution, 1750–1880 (London, 1966), p. 5Google Scholar, citing Deane and van Bath, Cole. B. H. Slicher, “The Yields of Different Crops (Mainly Cereals) in Relation to Seed, c. 810–1820,” Ada Historiae Neerlandica, 2 (1967), 26–106Google Scholar, seems to accept similar evidence for his British yield ratios. Cornwall, Julian, “Farming in Sussex, 1560–1640,” Sussex Archaeological Collections, 92 (1954), p. 56Google Scholar, summarizes general estimates available for England in the early modern period.

10 Whitney, Milton, “The Yield of Wheat in England over Seven Centuries,” Science, 58 (1923), 320–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

11 Bennett, “British Wheat Yields,” pp. 12–29.

12 Ibid., p. 23.

13 Whitney, “The Yield of Wheat,” p. 323; Bennett, “British Wheat Yields,” p. 23.

14 Deane and Cole, British Economic Growth, p. 67, following Fussell, George E., “Population and Wheat Production in the Eighteenth Century,” History Teachers' Miscellany, 7 (1929), 65–68Google Scholar, 84–88, 120–27, and 108–11.

15 Hoskins, William G., “Harvest Fluctuations and English Economic History, 1480–1619,” Agricultural History Review, 12 (1964), 28–46Google Scholar, rpt. in Minchinton, Essays in Agrarian History, pp. 95–115; Hoskins, William G., “Harvest Fluctuations in English Economic History, 1620–1759,” Agricultural History Review, 16 (1968), 15–31Google Scholar; and Harrison, C. J., “Grain Price Analysis of Harvest Qualities, 1465–1634,” Agricultural History Review, 19 (1971), 135–55.Google Scholar

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17 For example, Clarkson, Leslie, Death, Disease, and Famine in Pre-Industrial England (London, 1975).Google Scholar

18 The literature on English inventories is quite extensive. For transcriptions and discussion of them see Steer, Francis W., Farm and Cottage Inventories of Mid-Essex, 1635–1749 (Chelmsford, 1950Google Scholar; rev. ed., Chichester, 1969); Havinden, Michael A., Household and Farm Inventories in Oxfordshire, 1550–90, Historical Manuscripts Commission Joint Publication 10 and Oxford Record Society XLIV (London, 1965)Google Scholar; Ashmore, Owen, “Inventories as a Source of Local History, II: Farmers,” Amateur Historian, 10 (1959), 186–95Google Scholar; and Overton, Mark, “Computer Analysis of an Inconsistent Data Source: The Case of Probate Inventories,” Journal of Historical Geography, 3 (Oct. 1977), 317–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Discussion of inventories for other parts of the world can be found, for example, in Jones, Alice Hanson, American Colonial Wealth, 3 vols. (New York, 1977)Google Scholar, and in Kuuse, Jan, “The Probate Inventory as a Source for Economic and Social History,” Scandinavian Economic History Review, 22 (1974), 22–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

19 The “instance/counter-instance” method has been used by Kerridge, Revolution, and by Joan Thirsk, “The Farming Regions of England,” in Thirsk, Agrarian History, pp. 1–112. Skipp, Victor H. T., “Economic and Social Change in the Forest of Arden, 1530–1649,” Agricultural History Review, Supplement, 18 (1970), 84–111Google Scholar, and Yelling, James A., “Probate Inventories and the Geography of Livestock Farming,” Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 51 (Nov. 1970), 111–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar, are more quantitative studies using inventories for England. They have been used in other parts of the world by, for example, de Vries, Jan, The Dutch Rural Economy in the Golden Age, 1500–1700 (New Haven, 1974)Google Scholar, and Ball, Duane E. and Walton, Gary M., “Agricultural Productivity Change in Eighteenth-Century Pennsylvania,” this Journal, 36 (March 1976), 102–17.Google Scholar

20 These inventories are the principal source for my Ph.D. dissertation; see Overton, “Computer Analysis,” p. 324.

21 These points are elaborated in ibid.

22 Sampling theory is introduced in most elementary statistical texts; for example, Blalock, Hubert M., Social Statistics (2nd ed.; New York, 1972), pp. 178–88Google Scholar, 201–16; Schofield, Roger S., “Sampling in Historical Research,” in Wrigley, Edward A., ed., Nineteenth Century Society: Essays in the Use of Quantitative Methods for the Study of Social Data (Cambridge, 1972), pp. 146–90CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Som, Ranjan K., A Manual of Sampling Techniques (London, 1973).Google Scholar

23 These are the periods for which usable quantities of inventories survive for the Consistory Court of Norwich, with the exception of the period 1599–1627 for which inventories are available but have not been used. Altogether some 13,000 were examined and of these some 4,000 analyzed for their agricultural information. Overton, “Computer Analysis.”

24 Som, Manual of Sampling Techniques, pp. 97–103.

25 Copies of the tables of yields from which these graphs were drawn are available from the author.

26 Norfolk Record Office, Consistory Court Inventory, INV 79B/23.

27 INV 50B/37.

28 INV 71B/169.

29 Norfolk Record Office, MSS 9935, The Hingham Town Book, recording the prices of wheat, rye, barley, oats, and peas.

30 Campbell, Bruce M. S., “Field Systems in East Norfolk during the Middle Ages” (Ph.D. diss., Univ. of Cambridge, 1975), p. 352Google Scholar. His yield figures have been converted to statute acres for comparison.

31 Farmer, “Grain Yields,” p. 565.

32 Hoskins, “Harvest Fluctuations, 1480–1619,” p. 32; Stratum, Jack M., Agricultural Records, A.D. 220–1968 (London, 1969), pp. 44–45.Google Scholar

33 Kent, Nathaniel, General View of the Agriculture of the County of Norfolk with Observations for the Means of its Improvement (London, 1796), pp. 56, 59Google Scholar; Marshall, William, The Review and Abstract of the County Reports to the Board of Agriculture, Vol. III, Eastern Department (York, 1818), p. 349Google Scholar; Young, Arthur, General View of the Agriculture of the County of Suffolk (London, 1797), pp. 52, 55.Google Scholar

34 Second Report of the Lords' Committee on the Dearth of Provisions, British Parliamentary Papers, 1801 II, Appendix I.

35 Jones, Eric L., “Agriculture and Economic Growth in England, 1660–1750,” this Journal, 25 (March 1965), 1–18Google Scholar; and Crafts, Nicholas F. R., “English Economic Growth in the Eighteenth Century: A Reexamination of Deane and Cole's Estimates,” Economic History Review, 2nd sen, 29 (May 1976), 226–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

36 Kerridge, Revolution, p. 328.

37 A graph showing the innovation of root crops in Norfolk and Suffolk is in Overton, “Computer Analysis,” p. 326.

38 Percival, John, The Wheat Plant (London, 1921), p. 420.Google Scholar

39 Milthorpe, F. L., “Crop Responses in Relation to the Forecasting of Yields,” in Johnson, Cecil G. and Smith, Lionel P., eds., The Biological Significance of Climatic Change in Britain (London, 1965), pp. 119–28Google Scholar; Jones, Eric L., Seasons and Prices: The Role of the Weather in English Agricultural History (London, 1964)Google Scholar; Brandon, Peter F., “Medieval Weather in Sussex and its Agricultural Significance,” Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 54 (Nov. 1971), 1–17CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Lamb, Hubert H., Climate Present, Past and Future, Vol. II (London, 1977), pp. 564Google Scholar, 569, 572–73; and Stratton, Agricultural Records, pp. 44, 56–58, 60–63.

40 Derived for me by Frank Kelly.