Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-mlc7c Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-18T14:35:09.608Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Preventive Check in Medieval and Preindustrial England

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 December 2012

Morgan Kelly*
Affiliation:
Professor, School of Economics, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland. E-mail: morgan.kelly@ucd.ie.
Cormac Ó Gráda*
Affiliation:
Professor, School of Economics, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland. E-mail: cormac.ograda@ucd.ie.

Abstract

England's post-Reformation demographic regime has been characterized as “low pressure.” Yet the evidence hitherto for the presence of a preventive check, defined as the short-run response of marriage and births to variations in living standards, is rather weak. New evidence in this article strengthens the case for the preventive check in both medieval and early modern England. We invoke manorial data to argue the case for a preventive check on marriages in the Middle Ages. Our analysis of the post-1540 period, based on parish-level rather than aggregate data, finds evidence for a preventive check on marriages and births.

Type
ARTICLES
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Allen, Robert C.The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War.” Explorations in Economic History 38, no. 4 (2001): 411–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, Robert C.. “Wage and Price History.” Available at www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/General/Members/allen.aspx, 2001.Google Scholar
Bailey, Mark. “Demographic Decline in Late Medieval England: Some Thoughts on Recent Research.” Economic History Review 49, no. 1 (1996): 119.Google Scholar
Bailey, Roy E., and Chambers, M. J.. “Long-Term Demographic Interactions in Pre-Census England.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society) 156, no. 3 (1993): 339–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bates, Douglas M.lme4: Mixed-Effects Modeling with R. New York: Springer-Verlag, 2010.Google Scholar
Bennett, Judith M. “Medieval Peasant Marriage: An Examination of Marriage License Fees in the Liber Gersumarum.” In Pathways to Medieval Peasants, edited Raftis, J. A., 193246. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1982.Google Scholar
Brand, Paul A., Hyams, Paul R., Faith, Rosamund, and Searle, Eleanor. “Debate: Seigneurial Control of Women's Marriage.” Past & Present 99 (1983): 123–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Britnell, Richard, ed. The Winchester Pipe Rolls and Medieval English Society. Woodbridge: Boydell Press, 2003.Google Scholar
Brown, John C., and Guinnane, Timothy W.. “Regions and Time in the European Fertility Transition: Problems in the Princeton Project's Statistical Methodology.” Economic History Review 60, no. 3 (2007): 574–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, B. M. S. “‘A Unique Estate and a Unique Source: The Winchester Pipe Rolls in Perspective.” In The Winchester Pipe Rolls and Medieval English Society, edited by Britnell, Richard, 2143. Woodbridge: Boydell Press, 2003.Google Scholar
Clark, Gregory. “Markets and Economic Growth: The Grain Market of Medieval England.” Available at http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/210a/readings/market99.pdf, 2001.Google Scholar
Britnell, Richard. “The Price History of English Agriculture, 1209–1914.” Research in Economic History 22 (2004): 41123.Google Scholar
Britnell, Richard. “The Long March of History: Farm Wages, Population, and Economic Growth, England, 1209–1869.” Economic History Review 60, no. 1 (2005): 97136.Google Scholar
Crafts, Nicholas, and Mills, Terence C.. “From Malthus to Solow: How Did the Malthusian Economy Really Evolve?Journal of Macroeconomics 31, no. 1 (2009): 6893.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
James, Foreman-Peck. “The Western European Marriage Pattern and Economic Development.” Explorations in Economic History 48, no. 2 (2011): 292309.Google Scholar
Goldberg, P. J. P. “Life and Death: The Ages of Man.” In A Social History of England, 1200–1500, edited by Horrox, Rosemary and Ormrod, W. Mark, 413–34. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hajnal, John. “European Marriage Pattern in Historical Perspective.” In Population in History, edited by Glass, D. V. and Eversley, D. E. C., 101–43. London: Edward Arnold, 1965.Google Scholar
Hallam, H. E.Age at Marriage and Age at Death in the Lincolnshire Fenland.” Population Studies 39, no. 1 (1985): 5569.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jones, Eric L.The European Miracle: Environment, Economies, and Geopolitics in the History of Europe and Asia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981.Google Scholar
Jones, Ernest D.Research Note: Medieval Merchets as Demographic Data: Some Evidence from the Spalding Priory Estates, Lincolnshire.” Continuity & Change 11, no. 3 (1996): 459–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Ernest D.. “The Spalding Priory Merchet Evidence from the 1250s to the 1470s.” Journal of Medieval History 24, no. 2 (1998): 155–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelly, Morgan, and Cormac Ó Gráda. “Living Standards and Mortality Since the Middle Ages.” UCD Centre for Economic Research WP 2010/26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Ernest D.. “The Poor Law of Old England: Institutional Innovation and Demographic Regimes.” Journal of Interdisciplinary History 41, no. 3 (2010): 339–66.Google Scholar
Lee, John Joseph. “Marriage and Population in Pre-Famine Ireland.” Economic History Review 21, no. 2 (1968): 283–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, Ronald D. “Short-Term Variation: Vital Rates, Prices, and Weather.”’ In Population History of England, edited by Wrigley, E. Anthony and Schofield, Roger S., 356401. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1981.Google Scholar
Lee, Ronald D., and Anderson, Michael. “Malthus in State Space: Macro Economic-Demographic Relations in English History, 1540 to 1870.” Journal of Population Economics 15, no. 2 (2001): 195220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malthus, Thomas Robert. An Essay on the Principle of Population: Or, A View of Its Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992 (based on the volume first published in 1803).Google Scholar
May, Alfred N.An Index of Thirteenth-Century Peasant Impoverishment? Manor Court Fines.” Economic History Review 26, no. 3 (1973): 389401.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erin, McGibbon Smith. “The Participation of Women in the Fourteenth-Century Manor Court of Sutton-in-the-Isle.” Marginalia 1 (2005). Available at http://www.marginalia.co.uk/journal/05margins/smith.php.Google Scholar
Mueller, Miriam. “The Function and Evasion of Marriage Fines on a Fourteenth- Century English Manor.” Continuity & Change 14, no. 2 (1999): 169–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicolini, Esteban A.Was Malthus Right? A VAR Analysis of Economic and Demographic Interactions in Preindustrial England.” European Review of Economic History 11, no. 1 (2007): 99121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, Mark. “Peasant Land Market in Southern England, 1260–1350.” Available from http://www.esds.ac.uk/findingData/snDescription.asp?sn=4086. First Edition: 23 January 2001.Google Scholar
Nicolini, Esteban A.. “The Peasant Land Market on the Estate of the Bishopric of Winchester on the Eve of the Black Death.” In The Winchester Pipe Rolls and Medieval English Society, edited by Britnell, Richard, 6180. Woodbridge: Boydell Press, 2003.Google Scholar
Henry, Phelps Brown, and Hopkins, Sheila V.. A Perspective of Wages and Prices. London: Methuen, 1981.Google Scholar
Poos, Larry R., and Smith, Richard M.. “‘Legal Windows onto Historical Populations?’” Recent Research on Demography and the Manor Court in Medieval England.” Law and History Review 2, no. 1 (1984): 128–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Postan, Michael M., and Titow, Jan Z.. “Heriots and Prices on Winchester Manors.” Economic History Review 9, no. 3 (1959): 392411.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rathke, Alexander, and Samad Sarferaz. “Evolving Malthusian Dynamics and the Industrial Revolution: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR.” Paper presented at the European Historical Economics Society Conference, Dublin, September 2011 (downloaded from www.ehes2011.com/detailed_programme.html, 13 June 2012).Google Scholar
Razi, Zvi. Life, Marriage, and Death in a Medieval Peasant Society: Economy, Society, and Demography in Halesowen, 1270–1400. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980.Google Scholar
Razi, Zvi, and Smith, R. M., eds. Medieval Society and the Manor Court. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1996.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schofield, Roger. Parish Register Aggregate Analyses. University of Hertfordshire: Local Population Studies, 1998.Google Scholar
Sharp, Paul, and Weisdorf, Jacob. “From Preventive to Permissive Checks: The Changing Nature of the Malthusian Relationship Between Nuptiality and the Price of Provisions in the Nineteenth Century.” Cliometrica 3, no. 1 (2009): 5570.Google Scholar
Shaw-Taylor, Leigh. “The Rise of Agrarian Capitalism and the Decline of Family Farming in England.” Economic History Review, forthcoming (available online at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1468-0289/earlyview).Google Scholar
Searle, Eleanor. “Seigneurial Control of Women's Marriage: The Antecedents and Function of Merchet in England.” Past & Present 82 (1979): 343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Richard M.Hypothèses sur la nuptialité en Angleterre aux XIIIe–XIVe siècles.” Annales E. S. C. 38 (1983): 107–36.Google Scholar
Smith, Richard M.. “Further Models of Medieval Marriage: Landlords, Serfs, and Priests in Rural England, v. 1290–1370.” In Georges Duby: l’écriture de l'histoire, edited by Duhamel-Amado, Claude and Lobrichon, Guy, 161–73. Brussels: De Boeck Université, 1996.Google Scholar
Duhamel-Amado, Claude and Lobrichon, Guy. “Relative Prices, Forms of Agrarian Labour, and Female Marriage Patterns in England, 1350–1800.” In Marriage and Rural Economy: Western Europe Since 1400, edited by Devos, Isabelle and Kennedy, Liam, 1948. Brussels: Brepols, 2000.Google Scholar
Devos, Isabelle and Kennedy, Liam. “Moving to Marry Among the Customary Tenants of Thirteenth and Early Fourteenth Century England.” In Freedom of Movement in the Middle Ages, edited by Horden, Peregrine, 2240. Donnington: Shaun Tyas, 2007.Google Scholar
Weir, David R.Life Under Pressure: France and England, 1670–1870.” The Journal of Economic History 44, no. 1 (1984): 2747.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whittle, Jane. “Inheritance, Marriage, Widowhood, and Remarriage: A Comparative Perspective on Women and Landholding in North-East Norfolk, 1440–1580.” Continuity & Change 13, no. 1 (1998): 3372.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wrigley, E. Anthony, Davies, Rosalind S., Oeppen, James E., and Schofield, Roger S.. English Population History from Family Reconstitution, 1580–1837. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wrigley, E. Anthony, and Schofield, Roger S.. The Population History of England, 1541–1871: A Reconstruction. London: Edward Arnold, 1981.Google Scholar