Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-15T12:46:01.690Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

To Raise the Golden Anchor? Financial Crises and Uncertainty During the Great Depression

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2009

J. Peter Ferderer
Affiliation:
Associate Professor, Department ofEconomics, Macalester College, 1600 Grand Avenue, Saint Paul MN 55105. E-mail: ferderer@macalester.edu.
David A. Zalewski
Affiliation:
Associate Professor of Finance, Koffler Hall, Providence College, River Avenue, Providence RI 02198. E-mail: zalewski@providence.edu.

Abstract

This study examines the interplay between financial crises, uncertainty, and economic growth during the interwar period. Comparing the experiences of ten countries, we provide evidence that reductions in the credibility of a country's commitment to the gold standard generated capital flight and higher interest rate volatility. This volatility, in turn, was inversely correlated with economic growth. These results suggest that financial crises helped propagate the Great Depression, in part, by increasing uncertainty.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 1999

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Alesina, Alberto, and Perotti, Roberto. “Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment.” European Economic Review 40 (1996): 1203–28.Google Scholar
Asselain, Jean-Charles, and Plessis, Alain. “Exchange-Rate Policy and Macroeconomic Performance: A Comparison of French and Italian Experiences between the Wars.” In Banking, Currency, and Finance in Europe Between the Wars, edited by Feinstein, Charles H., 187213. New York: Oxford University Press, 1995.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S.Nonmonetary Effects of Financial Crises in the Propagation of the Great Depression.” American Economic Reviews 73, no. 3 (1983): 257–76.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S.The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 27, no. 1 (1995): 128.Google Scholar
Bernanke, Ben S., and James, Harold. “The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crises in the Great Depression: An International Comparison.” In Financial Markets and Financial Crises, edited by Hubbard, R. Glenn, 3368. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991.Google Scholar
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1914–1941. First Edition, Washington, DC, 1943.Google Scholar
Bollerslev, Tim, and Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.. “Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances.” Economic Reviews 11, no. 2 (1992): 143–72.Google Scholar
Bordo, Michael D. “Financial Crises, Banking Crises, Stock Market Crashes and the Money Supply: Some International Evidence, 1870–1933.” In Financial Crises andthe World Banking System, edited by Capie, Forest and Wood, Geoffrey, 190254. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1986.Google Scholar
Brenner, Robin J., Harjes, Richard H., and Kroner, Kenneth F.. “Another Look at Models of the Short-term Interest Rate.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 31, no. 1 (03 1996): 85107.Google Scholar
Caballero, Ricardo J.On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship.” American Economic Review 81, no. 1 (03 1991): 279–88.Google Scholar
Calomiris, Charles W.Financial Factors in the Great Depression.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 7, no. 2 (1993): 6186.Google Scholar
Claassen, Emil-Maria. Global Monetary Economics. New York: Oxford University Press, 1997.Google Scholar
Dixit, Avinash K., and Pindyck, Robert S.. Investment Under Uncertainly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939. New York: Oxford University Press, 1992.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, and Sachs, Jeffrey. “Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s.” this JOURNAL 45, no. 4 (1985): 925–46.Google Scholar
Engle, Robert F.Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation.” Econometrica 50 (1982): 9871008.Google Scholar
Epstein, Gerald, and Ferguson, Thomas. “Monetary Policy, Loan Liquidation, and Industrial Conflict: The Federal Reserve and the Open Market Operation of 1932.” this JOURNAL 44, no. 4 (1984): 957–83.Google Scholar
Feinstein, Charles H., Temin, Peter, and Toniolo, Gianni. The European Economy Between the Wars. New York: Oxford University Press, 1997.Google Scholar
Ferderer, J. Peter, and Zalewski, David A.. “Uncertainty as a Propagating Force in the Great Depression.” this JOURNAL 54, no. 4 (1994): 825–49.Google Scholar
Fisher, Lawrence. “Determinants of Risk Premiums on Corporate Bonds.” Journal of Political Economy 67 (06 1959): 217–37.Google Scholar
Flood, Robert P. Jr, and Garber, Peter M.. “A Systematic Banking Collapse in a Perfect Foresight World.” NBER Working Paper No. 691, Cambridge, MA, 1981.Google Scholar
Friedman, Milton, and Schwartz, Anna Jacobson. A Monetary History of the United States, 1967–1960. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963.Google Scholar
Gray, Stephen F.Modeling the Conditional Distribution of Interest Rates as a Regime- Switching Process.” Journal of Financial Economics 42, no. 1 (1996): 2762.Google Scholar
Grinols, Earl L., and Turnovsky, Stephen J.. “Risk, the Financial Market, and Macroeconomic Equilibrium.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 17 (1993): 136.Google Scholar
Hallwood, C. Paul, MacDonald, Ronald, and Marsh, Ian W.. “Crash! Expectational Aspects of the Departures of the United Kingdom and the United States from the Inter-War Gold Standard.” Explorations in Economic History 34, no. 2 (1997): 174–94.Google Scholar
Hamilton, James. “The Role of the International Gold Standard in Propagating the Great Depression.” Contemporary Policy Issues 6 (04 1988): 6789.Google Scholar
Hendel, Ian. “Competition Under Financial Distress.” The Journal of Industrial Economics 44, no. 3 (1996): 309–24.Google Scholar
Ho, Thomas, and Stoll, Hans. “Optimal Dealer Pricing Under Transactions and Return Uncertainty.” Journal of Financial Economics 9, (03 1981): 4773.Google Scholar
Hunter, Helen Manning. “The Role of Business Liquidity During the Great Depression and Afterwards: Differences Between Large and Small Firms.” this JOURNAL 42, no. 4 (1982): 883902.Google Scholar
Ingersoll, Jonathan E., and Ross, Stephen A.. “Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty.” Journal of Business 65 (01 1992): 129.Google Scholar
Jackson, Julian. The Politics of Depression in France, 1932–1936. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985.Google Scholar
James, Harold. “Financial Flows Across Frontiers During the Interwar Depression.” Economic History Review 45, no. 3 (1992): 594613.Google Scholar
Jones, Robert A., and Ostroy, Joseph M.. “Flexibility and Uncertainty.” Review of Economic Studies 51 (1984): 1332.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. A Tract on Monetary Reform. London: Macmillan, 1923.Google Scholar
Kindleberger, Charles P.A Financial History of Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993.Google Scholar
McKinnon, Ronald I.Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Historical Perspective,” Greek Economic Review 15, no. 2 (1993): 2944.Google Scholar
Meltzer, Alan. “Rational Expectations, Risk, Uncertainty, and Market Responses.” In Crises in the Economic and Financial Structure, edited by Wachtel, Paul, 322. New York: Lexington Books, 1982.Google Scholar
Mitchell, B. R.International Historical Statistics. Europe, 1750–1988. Third Edition. New York: Stockton Press, 1992.Google Scholar
Mitchell, B. R.International Historical Statistics: Africa, Asia, and Oceania, 1750–1988. Second Revised Edition. New York: Stockton Press, 1995.Google Scholar
Mouré, Kenneth. Managing the Franc Poincaré: Economic Understanding and Political Constraint in French Monetary Policy, 1928–1936. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991.Google Scholar
Nelson, Daniel. “Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model.” Econometric Theory 6, no. 3 (1990): 318–34.Google Scholar
Romer, Christina. “The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (08 1990): 597624.Google Scholar
Temin, Peter. “Transmission of the Great Depression.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 7, no. 2 (Spring 1993): 87102.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970. Washington, DC: GPO, 1975.Google Scholar
Wachtel, Paul. “Introduction.” In Crises in the Economic and Financial Structure, edited by Wachtel, Paul, ixii. New York: Lexington Books, 1982.Google Scholar
Wigmore, Barrie. “Was the Bank Holiday of 1933 a Run on the Dollar Rather than the Banks?” this JOURNAL 47 (1987): 739–56.Google Scholar
Williamson, Stephen D.Costly Monitoring, Financial Intermediation, and Equilibrium Credit Rationing.” Journal of Monetary Economics 18 (09 1986): 159–79.Google Scholar