Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-xbtfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-15T10:21:03.026Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Real Options, Idiosyncratic Skewness, and Diversification

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 February 2017

Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

We show how firm-level real options lead to idiosyncratic skewness in stock returns. We then document empirically that growth option variables are positive and significant determinants of idiosyncratic skewness. The real option impact on skewness is more significant in firms with lottery-type features, small size, high volatility, distressed, low return on assets, and low book-to-market ratio. We also find that expectation on idiosyncratic skewness is associated with lower Sharpe ratios. This suggests investors are willing to sacrifice mean-variance portfolio efficiency for greater skewness deriving from real options. Furthermore, financial flexibility has a positive incremental effect, enhancing the beneficial role of asset flexibility on idiosyncratic skewness.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington 2017 

Footnotes

1 The authors thank an anonymous referee and Hendrik Bessembinder (the editor) for helpful comments. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of Spanish Ministry of Education (Grant Number ECO2011-24928), Generalitat de Catalonia (Grant Number 2014-SGR-1079), Banc Sabadell, and the Jenny and Antti Wihuri Foundation.

References

Amaya, D.; Christoffersen, P.; Jacobs, K.; and Vasquez, A.. “Does Realized Skewness Predict the Cross-Section of Equity Returns?Journal of Financial Economics, 118 (2015), 135167.Google Scholar
Anderson, C. W., and Garcia-Feijóo, L.. “Empirical Evidence on Capital Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns.” Journal of Finance, 61 (2006), 171194.Google Scholar
Arellano, M., and Bond, S.. “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations.” Review of Economic Studies, 58 (1991), 277297.Google Scholar
Arellano, M., and Bover, O.. “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models.” Journal of Econometrics, 68 (1995), 2951.Google Scholar
Bakshi, G.; Kapadia, N.; and Madan, D.. “Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options.” Review of Financial Studies, 16 (2003), 101143.Google Scholar
Bali, T. G.; Cakici, N.; and Whitelaw, R. F.. “Maxing Out: Stocks as Lotteries and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns.” Journal of Financial Economics, 99 (2011), 427446.Google Scholar
Barberis, N., and Huang, M.. “Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices.” American Economic Review, 98 (2008), 20662100.Google Scholar
Bartram, S.“Corporate Postretirement Benefit Plans and Real Investment.” Management Science, forthcoming (2017).Google Scholar
Bhamra, H. S., and Shim, K. H.. “Stochastic Idiosyncratic Cash Flow Risk and Real Options: Implications for Stock Returns.” Journal of Economic Theory, forthcoming (2017).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Black, F.Studies of Stock Price Volatility Changes.” In Proceedings of the 1976 Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Statistics Section, Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association (1976), 177181.Google Scholar
Black, F., and Scholes, M.. “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities.” Journal of Political Economy, 81 (1973), 637654.Google Scholar
Blanchard, O., and Watson, M.. “Bubbles, Rational Expectation and Financial Markets.” Working Paper No. 945, National Bureau of Economic Research (1983).Google Scholar
Blundell, R., and Bond, S.. “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.” Journal of Econometrics, 87 (1998), 115143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bollerslev, T.; Osterrieder, D.; Sizova, N.; and Tauchen, G.. “Risk and Return: Long-Run Relations, Fractional Cointegration, and Return Predictability.” Journal of Financial Economics, 108 (2013), 409424.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boyer, B.; Mitton, T.; and Vorkink, K.. “Expected Idiosyncratic Skewness.” Review of Financial Studies, 23 (2010), 169202.Google Scholar
Brunnermeier, M. K.; Gollier, C.; and Parker, J. A.. “Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns.” American Economic Review, 97 (2007), 159165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, J. Y., and Hentschel, L.. “No News Is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns.” Journal of Financial Economics, 31 (1992), 281318.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. Y.; Hilscher, J.; and Szilagyi, J.. “In Search of Distress Risk.” Journal of Finance, 63 (2008), 28992939.Google Scholar
Cao, C.; Simin, T.; and Zhao, J.. “Can Growth Options Explain the Trend in Idiosyncratic Risk?Review of Financial Studies, 21 (2008), 25992633.Google Scholar
Cao, H. H.; Coval, J. D.; and Hirshleifer, D.. “Sidelined Investors, Trading-Generated News, and Security Returns.” Review of Financial Studies, 15 (2002), 615648.Google Scholar
Chan, L. K., and Lakonishok, J.. “Are the Reports of Beta’s Death Premature?Journal of Portfolio Management, 19 (1993), 5162.Google Scholar
Chang, B. Y.; Christoffersen, P.; and Jacobs, K.. “Market Skewness Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns.” Journal of Financial Economics, 107 (2013), 4668.Google Scholar
Chen, J.; Hong, H.; and Stein, J. C.. “Forecasting Crashes: Trading Volume, Past Returns, and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices.” Journal of Financial Economics, 61 (2001), 345381.Google Scholar
Christie, A. A.The Stochastic Behavior of Common Stock Variances: Value, Leverage and Interest Rate Effects.” Journal of Financial Economics, 10 (1982), 407432.Google Scholar
Conine, T., and Tamarkin, M.. “On Diversification Given Asymmetry in Returns.” Journal of Finance, 36 (1981), 11431155.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conrad, J.; Dittmar, R. F.; and Ghysels, E.. “Ex Ante Skewness and Expected Stock Returns.” Journal of Finance, 68 (2013), 85124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Epstein, L., and Schneider, M.. “Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing.” Journal of Finance, 63 (2008), 197228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F., and French, K. R.. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics, 33 (1993), 356.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fama, E. F., and French, K. R.. “Industry Costs of Equity.” Journal of Financial Economics, 43 (1997), 153193.Google Scholar
Gandhi, P., and Lustig, H.. “Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns.” Journal of Finance, 70 (2015), 733768.Google Scholar
Goyal, V. K.; Lehn, K.; and Racic, S.. “Growth Opportunities and Corporate Debt Policy: The Case of the U.S. Defense Industry.” Journal of Financial Economics, 64 (2002), 3559.Google Scholar
Green, C. T., and Hwang, B. H.. “Initial Public Offerings as Lotteries: Skewness Preference and First-Day Returns.” Management Science, 58 (2012), 432444.Google Scholar
Grullon, G.; Lyandres, E.; and Zhdanov, A.. “Real Options, Volatility, and Stock Returns.” Journal of Finance, 67 (2012), 14991537.Google Scholar
Harvey, C. R., and Siddique, A.. “Autoregressive Conditional Skewness.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 34 (1999), 465487.Google Scholar
Harvey, C. R., and Siddique, A.. “Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests.” Journal of Finance, 55 (2000), 12631295.Google Scholar
Hong, H., and Stein, J. C.. “Differences of Opinion, Short Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes.” Review of Financial Studies, 16 (2003), 487525.Google Scholar
Kapadia, N.“The Next Microsoft? Skewness, Idiosyncratic Volatility, and Expected Returns.” Working Paper, Tulane University (2006).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelly, B., and Jiang, H.. “Tail Risk and Asset Prices.” Review of Financial Studies, 27 (2014), 28412871.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kogan, L., and Papanikolaou, D.. “Growth Opportunities, Technology Shocks and Asset Prices.” Journal of Finance, 69 (2014), 675718.Google Scholar
Kraus, A., and Litzenberger, R. H.. “Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets.” Journal of Finance, 31 (1976), 10851100.Google Scholar
Kumar, A.Who Gambles in the Stock Market?Journal of Finance, 64 (2009), 18891933.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitton, T., and Vorkink, K.. “Equilibrium Underdiversification and the Preference for Skewness.” Review of Financial Studies, 20 (2007), 12551288.Google Scholar
Nickell, S.Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects.” Econometrica, 49 (1981), 14171426.Google Scholar
Patton, A. J., and Sheppard, K.. “Good Volatility, Bad Volatility: Signed Jumps and the Persistence of Volatility.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 97 (2015), 683697.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Petersen, M. A.Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches.” Review of Financial Studies, 22 (2009), 435480.Google Scholar
Reinhart, C. M., and Rogoff, K. S.. This Time Is different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press (2009).Google Scholar
Schularick, M., and Taylor, A. M.. “Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–2008.” American Economic Review, 102 (2012), 10291061.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trigeorgis, L., and Lambertides, N.. “The Role of Growth Options in Explaining Stock Returns.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 49 (2014), 749771.Google Scholar
van Zwet, W.Convex Transformations: A New Approach to Skewness and Kurtosis.” Statistica Neerlandica, 18 (1964), 433441.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xu, J.Price Convexity and Skewness.” Journal of Finance, 62 (2007), 25212552.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xu, Y., and Malkiel, B. G.. “Investigating the Behavior of Idiosyncratic Volatility.” Journal of Business, 76 (2003), 613645.Google Scholar