On the Expenses and Selection as affecting the Pure Premium Method of Valuation

Extract

Although much has been written in recent years on the comparative merits of different methods of valuation, I am not aware that any attempt has yet been made to ascertain the ultimate bearing on the Pure Premium Method, of the facts that have been recently brought forward as to the pressure of the expenses and the effects of selection in an assurance company. Speaking generally, it will, I think, be found that proposals to diminish the pure premium reserve on account of the necessarily heavy expenses of new business, have been made without reference to the mortality profit that may be expected to arise from the recent selection of the lives, and vice versa. This being the case, it occurred to me that it might be of considerable practical interest to make an investigation in which effect would be given to the influence both of expenses and of selection, for it would enable us to estimate how far the one neutralized the other. In order to render the inquiry more clear, however, it will be well to begin by considering each separately.