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Mathematical Modeling and Quantitative Analysis of theDemographic and Ecological Aspects of Russian Supermortality

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 January 2011

A. K. Cherkashin  and
Ya. A. Leshchenko
A. K. Cherkashin*
Affiliation:
V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia
Ya. A. Leshchenko
Affiliation:
Angarsk Branch of the East-Siberian Center for Human Ecology SB RAMS Research Institute of Labor Medicine and Human Ecology, Angarsk, Russia
*
* Corresponding author. E-mail: cherk@mail.icc.ru
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Abstract

We have carried out a polysystem analysis of the population dynamics by using a varietyof hypotheses and their respective models based on different system interpretations of thephenomenon under investigation. Each of the models supplements standard dynamic equationsfor explaining the effects observed. A qualitative model-based analysis is made of theage-specific male mortality for a Siberian industrial city. The study revealed thetendencies for background mortality to increase with age and over time, whichcharacterizes in an integral manner the influence of socio-ecological factors on thedecline in population viability. It is shown that these tendencies are similar fordifferent years and for different population age groups.

Keywords

demographic crisismortalitysocio-ecological factorsmathematical modelingdata analysis
Type
Research Article
Information
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena , Volume 5 , Issue 6: Ecology (Part 2) , 2010 , pp. 243 - 258
Copyright
© EDP Sciences, 2011

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