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Chapter II. The World Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

R.J. Barrell ,
Andrew Gurney  and
Stephen Dulake
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Extract

The most important factor affecting our view of long-term prospects is the potential effect of developments in Eastern Europe. Since our last forecast, which was completed three months ago on 9th November 1989 the political map of Europe has changed. The Czechs, Rumanians and Bulgarians appear to have joined the Poles and the Hungarians in the drive for democracy and more open markets. The collapse of the East German regime, and the gathering pace of the drive for unification with the FDR has been even more remarkable. Almost any possible outcome will change the prospects for growth and economic developments in the whole of the non-Communist world. We would argue that these effects will not just be confined to Continental Europe.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 131 , February 1990 , pp. 24 - 46
Copyright
Copyright © 1990 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Barrell, R., Gurney, A., Pesaran, B. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1988), ‘Three forward looking exchange rate equations and their simulation properties’, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, mimeo.Google Scholar
Westaway, P. and Pain, N., (1989), ‘Towards a structural model of the UK exchange rate’, National Institute Discussion Paper no. 165.Google Scholar