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Chapter I. The Home Economy
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
Extract
Since we last reported, the most important economic event has of course been the re-introduction of a form of incomes policy as set out in the White Paper ‘The Attack on Inflation’. The publicity surrounding the introduction of the new policy has however served to mask the startling nature of recent developments in the ‘real’ economy—startling both in relation to past experience and, unfortunately, in relation to our May forecast. They suggest that, so long as the £6 pay limit is generally held to, the focus of concern is now likely to shift rapidly away from inflation and the balance of payments and towards unemployment.
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- Copyright © 1975 National Institute of Economic and Social Research
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Notes
(page 8 note 1) Of this error, perhaps one third was due to an over-forecast of output and demand and two thirds to an overestimate of the import propensity.
(page 8 note 2) Though it is conceivable that the stock fall so far this year has had an unusually large import content.
(page 8 note 3) The July trade figures, which included imports of lumpy items such as ships and an oil production platform, serve to lessen the extent of the second quarter anomaly but only partially.
(page 8 note 4) A rise which most forecasters have found difficult to predict, particularly since 1967.
(page 9 note 1) However, our present forecasting equation for imports of goods does contain a relative price term with a long-run elasticity of 0.8. But this fails to capture the extent of the overall fall in imports so far this year even after allowing for the fuel effect and for destocking of raw materials.
(page 9 note 2) For convenience we are assuming that domestic oil production will replace imports; in fact it will probably be largely exported.
(page 14 note 1) In May we assumed a marked fall in the ratio; we have revised our view because savings have already been higher this year than we expected, and because the much higher unemployment we now expect may lead to greater caution on the part of consumers.
(page 20 note 1) See National Institute Economic Review no. 71, February 1975, pages 65-66.