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Prospects for the UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Ray Barrell ,
Simon Kirby  and
Robert Metz
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Extract

Output growth in 2004 was 3.1 per cent, and the preliminary estimate for growth of GDP in the first quarter of 2005 was 0.6 per cent, slightly higher than on our early estimate. Relatively robust growth over the recent past suggests to us that the output gap has now closed, as we can see from chart 2. We anticipate that growth will rise further in the second quarter.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 192 , April 2005 , pp. 40 - 54
Copyright
Copyright © 2005 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Notes

1 We are less optimistic about inflation and output growth in both years than the Treasury. Over the past eight years, when comparing our October forecast to the Pre-Budget Report, our inflation forecasts have been marginally better than theirs, and our output forecasts have performed equally well.

2 There have been data revisions of around £2 billion for the first half of 2004-5. As a result we now expect that there will be less of an improvement in the current budget from 2003-4 to the fiscal year just ended than we anticipated in January.