Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-fbnjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-14T22:10:37.305Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Quantification of Survey Data on Expectations∗

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Simon Wren-Lewis
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

In many industrial countries regular surveys are published in which either firms or consumers are asked whether they expect some economic variable, like prices for example, to rise or fail. This survey information has been used for many years as an aid to short-term forecasting. Recently there has been a renewed interest in using this data for a rather different purpose: as a measure of firms or consumers' average expectations.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 113 , August 1985 , pp. 39 - 49
Copyright
Copyright © 1985 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

∗

The author would like to acknowledge the invaluable research assistance of Martin Wall and Guy Warner, and financial support from the EC Commission and HM Treasury. Comments from Roy Batchelor, Penelope Rowlatt, Chris Mellis, members of the CBI staff and an anonymous referee were also extremely useful, but I alone remain responsible for any errors.

References

Batchelor, R. (1981), ‘Aggregate expectations under the stable laws’, Journal of Econometrics, 16, pp. 199–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Batchelor, R. (1982), ‘Expectations, output and inflation’, European Economic Review, 17, pp. 1–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, A. (1984), ‘Output expectations of manufacturing industry’, Applied Economics.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlson, J.A. (1975), ‘Are price expectations normally distributed?’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70, pp. 749–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlson, J.A. and Parkin, M. (1975), ‘Inflation expectations’, Economica, 42, pp. 123–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cbi (1983), Twenty-Five Years of Ups and Downs.Google Scholar
Johnson, N.L. and Kotz, S. (1970), Continuous Univariate Distributions, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston.Google Scholar
Keating, G. (1983), ‘The effect of answering practices on the relationship between CBI survey data and official data’, Applied Economics, 15, pp. 213–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Knobl, A. (1974), ‘Price expectations and actual price behaviour in Germany’, IMF Staff Papers, 21, pp. 83–100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maddala, G.S. (1977), Econometrics, McGraw-Hill, New York.Google Scholar
Oppenländer, K.M. and Poser, G. (1984) (eds), Leading Indicators and Business Cycle Surveys, Gower, Aldershot.Google Scholar
Price, R.M. (1983), ‘The CBI Industrial Trends Survey; an insight into answering practices’, in CBI, Twenty-Five Years of Ups and Downs.Google Scholar
Pesaran, M.H. (1984), ‘Expectations formation and macroeconomic modelling’ in P. Malgrange and P. Muet (eds), Contemporary Macroeconomic Mocielling, Blackwell.Google Scholar
Theil, M. (1952), ‘On the time shape of economic microvariables and the Munich Business Test’, Revue de l'Institut International de Statistique, 20, pp. 105–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wren-Lewis, S. (1985), ‘The use of survey data to examine the role of output expectations in employment, stockbuilding and investment decisions’, National Institute Discussion Paper, no. 79.Google Scholar