Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-xbtfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-15T20:44:05.115Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Roles of Output Expectations and Liquidity in Explaining Recent Productivity Movements

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Simon Wren-Lewis*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Extract

The behaviour of labour productivity (output per head) in recent years has received considerable comment. Growth rates in manufacturing of 5.7 per cent and 6.0 per cent in 1982 and 1983 have been interpreted by some as heralding a new era in industrial relations and technological innovation. One systematic analysis identifies an upward shift in productivity in 1980, followed by more normal behaviour thereafter (see Mendis and Muellbauer (1983), and also the article by John Muellbauer in the Financial Times, 20 April 1983). The improvement has taken place in most manufacturing industries, and remains however carefully we try to measure labour's input into production (National Institute Economic Review, no. 106, pp. 42-46).

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 1984 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

(1)

This article is part of a more general research project at the Institute involving Brian Henry and Stephen Hall, designed to investigate the role of expectations and disequilibrium adjustment in company sector behaviour. Many of the ideas explored here are the result of this collaboration, although all of the mistakes are mine. I would also like to thank Andrew Britton, David Savage, an anonymous referee, and members of a conference on ‘Hours of work and employment’, Warwick, 1983, for comments on an earlier version.

References

Britton, A. ed. (1983), Employment, Output and Inflation, Heinemann.Google Scholar
Challen, D.W. and Haggar, A.J. (1982), ‘Demand for labour functions: the wrong track? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 44, pp. 3157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hall, S. (1984), ‘On the estimation of high order symmetric difference equations’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.Google Scholar
Hall, S., Henry, B. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1984), ‘Manufacturing stocks and forward looking expectations in the UK’, National Institute Discussion Paper, no. 64.Google Scholar
Hansen, L. and Sargent, T. (1982), ‘Instrumental variable procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models’, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 9, pp. 263296.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henry, B. and Ormerod, P. (1982), ‘Rational expectations in a wage-price model of the UK 1972-79’, ‘National Institute Discussion Paper, no. 50.Google Scholar
Henry, B. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1983), ‘Employment and expected output’, National Institute Discussion Paper, no. 55.Google Scholar
Henry, B. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1984), ‘The aggregate labour market in the UK: some experiments with rational expectations models’, in Contemporary Macroeconomic Modelling, P. Malgrange and P. Muet, (eds.) Blackwell.Google Scholar
McCallum, B. (1976), ‘The rational expectations hypothesis: some consistent estimates’, Econometrica, p. 4352.Google Scholar
Mendis, L. and Muellbauer, J. (1983), ‘Has there been a British productivity break-through?’ Centre for Labour Economics Discussion Paper, no. 170.Google Scholar
Muellbauer, J. and Winter, D. (1980), ‘Unemployment, employment and exports in British manufacturing’, European Economic Review, vol. 13, pp. 383409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadiri, M. and Rosen, S. (1969), ‘Interrelated factor demand equations’, American Economic Review.Google Scholar
Nickell, S. (1979), ‘Unemployment and the structure of labour costs’, in Policies For Employment, Prices and Exchange Rates, K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer (eds.)Google Scholar
Nickell, S. (1981), ‘An investigation of the determinants of manufacturing employment in the UK’, Centre for Labour Economics Discussion Paper, no. 105.Google Scholar
O'Brien, P. (1982), ‘Employment’ in Systematic Econometric Comparisons, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.Google Scholar
Price, R. (1978), ‘Budgetary policy’, chapter 4 in Blackaby, F. (ed.) British Economic Policy, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Savage, D.Fiscal policy, 1974/5-1980/81: description and measurement’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 99, February 1982.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith-Garvine, S. and Bennett, A. (1983), ‘Index of percentage utilisation of labour’, Leicester Polytechnic mimeo.Google Scholar
Symons, J. (1981), ‘The demand for labour in British manufacturing’ Centre for Labour Economics Discussion Paper, no. 91.Google Scholar
Worswick, D. (1981), ‘Factors underlying the recent recession’, Paper presented to the Bank of England's Panel of Academic Consultants, no. 15Google Scholar
Wren-Lewis, S. (1984a), ‘Omitted variables in equations relating prices to money’, Applied Economics, forthcoming.Google Scholar
Wren-Lewis, S. (1984b), ‘The company sector in disequilibrium: some preliminary results’, National Institute Discussion Paper, forthcoming.Google Scholar