Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T08:47:23.310Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Experimenting in Democracy Promotion: International Observers and the 2004 Presidential Elections in Indonesia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 June 2010

Susan D. Hyde
Susan D. Hyde
Affiliation:
Yale University. E-mail: susan.hyde@yale.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Randomized field experiments have gained attention within the social sciences and the field of democracy promotion as an influential tool for causal inference and a potentially powerful method of impact evaluation. With an eye toward facilitating field experimentation in democracy promotion, I present the first field-experimental study of international election monitoring, which should be of interest to both practitioners and academics. I discuss field experiments as a promising method for evaluating the effects of democracy assistance programs. Applied to the 2004 presidential elections in Indonesia, the random assignment of international election observers reveals that even though the election was widely regarded as democratic, the presence of observers had a measurable effect on votes cast for the incumbent candidate, indicating that such democracy assistance can influence election quality even in the absence of blatant election-day fraud.

Type
Research Article
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 8 , Issue 2 , June 2010 , pp. 511 - 527
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abbink, Jon, and Hesseling, Gerti, eds. 2000. Election Observation and Democratization in Africa. Houndmills, England: Macmillan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Angrist, Joshua D., Imbens, Guido W., and Rubin, Donald B.. 1996. “Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 91 (434): 444–455.Google Scholar
Arceneaux, Kevin, Gerber, Alan S., and Green, Donald P.. 2006. “Comparing Experimental and Matching Methods Using a Large-Scale Voter Mobilization Experiment.” Political Analysis 14 (1): 37–62.Google Scholar
Aspinall, Edward. 2005. “Elections and the normalization of politics in Indonesia.” South East Asia Research 13: 117–156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banerjee, Abhijit V., and Duflo, Esther. 2008. “The Experimental Approach to Development Economics.” CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7037.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barnett, Michael N., and Finnemore, Martha. 1999. “The Politics, Power, and Pathologies of International Organizations.” International Organization 53 (4): 699–732.Google Scholar
Beigbeder, Yves. 1994. International Monitoring of Plebiscites, Referenda and National Elections: Self-Determination and Transition to Democracy. Boston: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bjornlund, Eric. 2001. “Democracy Inc.” The Wilson Quarterly.Google Scholar
Bjornlund, Eric. 2004. Beyond Free and Fair: Monitoring Elections and Building Democracy. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.Google Scholar
Bjornlund, Eric, Bratton, Michael, and Gibson, Clark. 1992. “Observing Multiparty Elections in Africa: Lesson from Zambia.” African Affairs 91 (364): 405–432.Google Scholar
Booth, John A. 1998. “Electoral Observation and Democratic Transition in Nicaragua.” In Electoral Observation and Democratic Transitions in Latin America, ed. J, by Kevin. Middlebrook, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Bratton, Michael. 1998. “Second Elections in Africa.” Journal of Democracy 9 (3): 51–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, Frederick Z. 1998. “Cambodia's Rocky Venture in Democracy.” In Postconflict Elections, Democratization, and International Assistance, ed. Kumar, Krishna. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Brown, Stephen. 2005. “Foreign Aid and Democracy Promotion: Lessons from Africa.” The European Journal of Development Research 17 (2): 179–198.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burnell, Peter J. 2000. Democracy Assistance: International Co-Operation for Democratization. London: Frank Cass.Google Scholar
Carothers, Thomas. 1997. “The Observers Observed.” Journal of Democracy 8 (3): 17–31.Google Scholar
Carothers, Thomas. 1999. Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Google Scholar
Carothers, Thomas. 2004. Critical Mission: Essays on Democracy Promotion. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Google Scholar
Carter Center, The. 2005. The Carter Center 2004 Indonesia Election Report. Atlanta: The Carter Center.Google Scholar
Cooper, Andrew F., and Legler, Thomas. 2006. Intervention Without Intervening?: The OAS Defense and Promotion of Democracy in the Americas. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Michael, Ikenberry, G. John, and Inoguchi, Takash, eds. 2000. American Democracy Promotion: Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deaton, Angus. 2009. “Instruments of Development: Randomization in the Tropics, and the Search for the Elusive Keys to Economic Development.” SSRN eLibrary (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1335715). Accessed October 26, 2009.Google Scholar
Djankov, Simeon, Montalvo, Jose, and Reynal-Querol, Marta. 2008. “The Curse of Aid.” Journal of Economic Growth 13 (3): 169–194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Donno, Daniela. 2008. Defending Democratic Norms: Regional Intergovernmental Organizations, Domestic Opposition and Democratic Change. PhD Dissertation, Yale University.Google Scholar
Duflo, Esther, Glennerster, Rachel, and Kremer, Michael. 2006. “Using Randomization in Development Economics Research: A Toolkit.” SSRN eLibrary (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=951841). Accessed October 25, 2009.Google Scholar
Dunning, Thad, and Hyde, Susan D.. 2008. “The Analysis of Experimental Data: Comparing Techniques.” Ms. Yale University.Google Scholar
Emmerson, Donald K. 2004. “A Year of Voting Dangerously?” Journal of Democracy 15 (1): 94–108.Google Scholar
Estok, Melissa, Nevitte, Neil, and Cowan, Glenn. 2002. The Quick Count and Election Observation: An NDI Handbook for Civic Organizations and Political Parties. D.C.: National Democratic Institute for International Affairs.Google Scholar
European Union. 2004. European Union Election Observation Mission to Indonesia.Google Scholar
Finkel, Steven E., Pérez-Liñán, Aníbel, Seligson, Mitchell A., and Azpuru, Dinorah. 2007. “Effects of US Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990–2003.” World Politics 59 (3): 404–440.Google Scholar
Geisler, Gisela. 1993. “Fair? What Has Fairness Got to Do with It? Vagaries of Election Observations and Democratic Standards.” The Journal of Modern African Studies 31 (4): 613–637.Google Scholar
Gerber, Alan S., and Green, Donald P.. 2000. “The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment.” American Political Science Review 94 (3): 653–663.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gillespie, Richard, and Youngs, Richard. 2002. “Themes in European Democracy Promotion.” Democratization 9 (1): 1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2002. All International Politics is Local: The Diffusion of Conflict, Integration. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Gourevitch, Peter. 1978. “The Second Image Reversed: The International Sources of Domestic Politics.” International Organization 32 (4): 881–912.Google Scholar
Green, Donald, and John, Peter, Eds. 2010. “Field Experiments in Comparative Politics and Policy.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences 628 (1): 6–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guilhot, Nicolas. 2005. The Democracy Makers: Human Rights and the Politics of Global Order. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heckman, James J. 1991. “Randomization and Social Policy Evaluation.” National Bureau of Economic Research Technical Working Paper Series No. 107. Available at (http://www.nber.org/papers/t0107). Accessed August 28, 2009.Google Scholar
Humphreys, Macartan, and Weinstein, Jeremy M.. 2009. “Field Experiments and the Political Economy of Development.” Annual Review of Political Science 12: 367–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
Hyde, Susan D. 2006. Observing Norms: Explaining the Causes and Consequences of Internationally Monitored Elections. PhD Dissertation, University of California, San Diego.Google Scholar
Hyde, Susan D. 2007. “The Observer Effect in International Politics: Evidence from a Natural Experiment.” World Politics 60 (1): 37–63.Google Scholar
Kalyvitis, Sarantis C., and Vlachaki, Irene. 2008. “Democratic Aid and the Democratization of Recipients.” SSRN eLibrary (October 6, 2008). (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=888262). Accessed August 27, 2009.Google Scholar
Kelley, Judith. 2008. “Assessing the Complex Evolution of Norms: The Rise of International Election Monitoring.” International Organization 62 (02): 221–255.Google Scholar
Knack, Stephen. 2004. “Does Foreign Aid Promote Democracy?” International Studies Quarterly 48 (1): 251–266.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kumar, Krishna. 1998. Postconflict Elections, Democratization, and International Assistance. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Laakso, Lissa. 2002. “The Politics of International Election Observation: The Case of Zimbabwe in 2000.” Journal of Modern African Studies 40 (03): 437–464.Google Scholar
Legler, Thomas, Lean, Sharon F., and Boniface, Dexter S., eds. 2007. Promoting Democracy in the Americas. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lehoucq, Fabrice. 2003. “Electoral Fraud: Causes, Types, and Consequences.” Annual Review of Political Science 6: 233–256.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lehoucq, Fabrice, and Molina, Ivan. 2002. Stuffing the Ballot Box Fraud, Electoral Reform, and Democratization in Costa Rica. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Way, Lucan. 2005. “International Linkage and Democratization.” Journal of Democracy 16 (3): 20–34.Google Scholar
Liddle, R. William, and Mujani, Saiful. 2005. “Indonesia in 2004: The Rise of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.” Asian Survey 45 (1): 119–126.Google Scholar
Matlosa, Khabele. 2002. “Election Monitoring and Observation in Zimbabwe: Hegemony versus Sovereignty.” African Journal of Political Science 7 (1): 129–154.Google Scholar
McCoy, Jennifer. 1998. “Monitoring and Mediating Elections during Latin American Democratization.” In Electoral Observation and Democratic Transitions in Latin America, ed. Middlebrook, Kevin J.. La Jolla: University of California.Google Scholar
McFaul, Michael. 2004. “Democracy Promotion as a World Value.” The Washington Quarterly 28 (1): 147–163.Google Scholar
Middlebrook, Kevin J. 1998. Electoral Observation and Democratic Transitions in Latin America. La Jolla: University of California.Google Scholar
Millennium Challenge Corporation. 2009. “Impact Evaluation at MCC,” (http://www.mcc.gov/programs/impactevaluation/index.php). Accessed February 26, 2009.Google Scholar
Montgomery, Tommie Sue. 1998. “International Missions, Observing Elections, and the Democratic Transition in El Salvador.” In Electoral Observation and Democratic Transitions in Latin America, ed. Middlebrook, Kevin J.. La Jolla: University of California.Google Scholar
National Research Council, Committee on Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs. 2008. Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.Google Scholar
Newman, Edward, and Rich, Roland, eds. 2004. The UN Role in Promoting Democracy: Between Ideals and Reality. Tokyo: United Nations University Press.Google Scholar
Nickerson, David W. 2005. “Scalable Protocols Offer Efficient Design for Field Experiments.” Political Analysis 13 (3): 233–252.Google Scholar
Nielsen, Richard, and Nielson, Daniel. 2008. “Lending Democracy: How Governance Aid May Affect Freedom.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the APSA 2008 Annual Meeting, Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts.Google Scholar
Nwankwo, Clement. 1999. “Monitoring Nigeria's Elections.” Journal of Democracy 10 (4): 156–165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oquaye, Mike. 1995. “The Ghanaian Elections of 1992—A Dissenting View.” African Affairs 94 (375): 259–275.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orozco, Manuel. 2002. International norms and mobilization of democracy. Surrey, UK: Ashgate.Google Scholar
OSCE/ODIHR. Election Observation. 2005. A Decade of Monitoring Elections: The People and the Practice. Warsaw: OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.Google Scholar
Ottaway, Marina. 1998. “Angola's Failed Elections.” In Postconflict Elections, Democratization, and International Assistance, ed. Kumar, Krishna. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Pastor, Robert A. 1998. “Mediating Elections.” Journal of Democracy 9 (1): 154–163.Google Scholar
Pevehouse, Jon C. 2002. “With a Little Help from My Friends? Regional Organizations and the Consolidation of Democracy.” American Journal of Political Science 46 (3): 611–626.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pevehouse, Jon C. 2005. Democracy from Above: Regional Organizations and Democratization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Qodari, Muhammad. 2005. “Indonesia's Quest for Accountable Governance.” Journal of Democracy 16 (2): 73–87.Google Scholar
Rich, Roland. 2001. “Bringing Democracy into International Law.” Journal of Democracy 12 (3): 20–34.Google Scholar
Robinson, William I. 1996. Promoting Polyarchy: Globalization, US Intervention, and Hegemony. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Savedoff, William D., Levine, Ruth, Birdsall, Nancy. 2006. “When will we ever learn? Improving Lives through Impact Evaluation.” Report of the Evaluation Gap Working Group. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. 2002. “The Nested Game of Democratization by Elections.” International Political Science Review 23 (1): 103–122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schedler, Andreas, ed. 2006. Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Scranton, Margaret E. 1998. “Electoral Observation and Panama's Democratic Transition.” In Electoral Observation and Democratic Transitions in Latin America, ed. Middlebrook, Kevin J.. La Jolla: University of California.Google Scholar
Smith, Tony. 1994. America's Mission: The United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy in the Twentieth Century. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Soremekun, Kayode. 1999. “Disguised Tourism and the Electoral Process in Africa: A Study of International Observers and the 1998 Local Government Elections in Nigeria.” Issue: A Journal of Opinion 27 (1): 26–28.Google Scholar
Wanandi, Jusuf. 2004. “The Indonesian General Elections, 2004.” Asia-Pacific Review 11 (2): 115–131.Google Scholar
Whitehead, Laurence, ed. 1996. The International Dimensions of Democratization: Europe and the Americas. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Wright, Joseph. 2009. “How Foreign Aid Can Foster Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes.” American Journal of Political Science 53 (3): 552–571.Google Scholar
Youngs, Richard. 2001. The European Union and the Promotion of Democracy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Hyde supplementary material

Estimates Conducted on Votes Cast for SBY

Download Hyde supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 60.6 KB
Supplementary material: File

Hyde supplementary material

Explanatory File

Download Hyde supplementary material(File)
File 282.4 KB