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Two Sides of the Same Coin? Employing Granger Causality Tests in a Time Series Cross-Section Framework

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 May 2008

M. V. Hood III ,
Quentin Kidd  and
Irwin L. Morris
M. V. Hood III
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, 104 Baldwin Hall, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-1615, USA, email: th@uga.edu
Quentin Kidd
Affiliation:
Department of Government, Christopher Newport University, 1 University Place, Newport News, VA 23606, USA, email: qkidd@cnu.edu
Irwin L. Morris*
Affiliation:
Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland at College Park, 3140 Tydings Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA
*
e-mail: imorris@gvpt.umd.edu (corresponding author)
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Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a recently developed methodology for assessing the assumption of causal homogeneity in a time series cross-section Granger framework. Following a description of the procedure and the analytical contexts for which it is appropriate, we implement this new approach to examine the transformation of the post-World War II party system in the South. Specifically, we analyze the causal relationship between black mobilization and GOP growth in the region. We find that black mobilization Granger caused Republican growth throughout the South, whereas Republican growth Granger caused black mobilization only in the deep South. We discuss the substantive significance of our results and conclude with guidelines for the appropriate use of this procedure and suggestions for future extensions of the method.

Type
Research Article
Information
Political Analysis , Volume 16 , Issue 3 , Summer 2008 , pp. 324 - 344
Copyright
Copyright © The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology 

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Footnotes

Authors' note: We would like to thank Christophe Hurlin and Baptiste Venet for their path-breaking work in this area and especially for the helpful comments provided by Professor Hurlin. In addition, we would also like to thank Geoff Layman, Mike Hanmer, and the participants of the American Politics Workshop at the University of Maryland, College Park for their helpful advice. A previous version of the manuscript was presented at the 2006 Citadel Symposium on Southern Politics.

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