Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-q99xh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T07:28:23.019Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Explaining Variance; Or, Stuck in a Moment We Can't Get Out Of

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2017

Bear F. Braumoeller
Bear F. Braumoeller*
Affiliation:
Department of Government, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge Street #209N, Cambridge, MA 02138. e-mail: bfbraum@fas.harvard.edu
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Political scientists overwhelmingly seek evidence of causation by measuring changes in the mean of the distribution of the dependent variable. This article points out that some causal relationships produce changes in the variance, not the mean, of that distribution. It makes the case for variance-altering causation by demonstrating its empirical relevance to political scientists. The article also lays out an array of causal mechanisms—under the general headings of aggregation, contagion, and constraint—in order to demonstrate the logical coherence of variance-altering causation and the many ways in which it can arise. The discussion highlights the often-stringent empirical and logical requirements that must be met if the researcher hopes to make concrete predictions about changes in variance.

Type
Research Article
Information
Political Analysis , Volume 14 , Issue 3: Special Issue on Causal Complexity and Qualitative Methods , Summer 2006 , pp. 268 - 290
Copyright
Copyright © The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Political Methodology 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James A. 2000. Why Did the West Extend the Franchise? Democracy, Inequality, and Growth in Historical Perspective. Quarterly Journal of Economics 115: 1167–99.Google Scholar
Agnor, Pierre, Miller, Marcus, Vines, David, and Weber, Axel, eds. 1999. The Asian Financial Crises: Causes, Contagion, and Consequences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Glaeser, Edward, and Sacerdote, Bruce. 2001. Why Doesn't the U.S. Have a European-Style Welfare System? NBER Working Paper.Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Spolaore, Enrico. 1997. On the Number and Size of Nations. Quarterly Journal of Economics 112: 1027–56.Google Scholar
Alvarez, R. Michael, and Brehm, John. 1995. American Ambivalence towards Abortion Policy: Development of a Heteroskedastic Probit Model of Competing Values. American Journal of Political Science 39: 1055–82.Google Scholar
Alvarez, R. Michael, and Brehm, John. 1997. Are Americans Ambivalent towards Racial Policies? American Journal of Political Science 41: 345–74.Google Scholar
Alvarez, R. Michael, and Brehm, John. 1998. Speaking in Two Voices: American Equivocation About the Internal Revenue Service. American Journal of Political Science 42: 418–52.Google Scholar
Alvarez, R. Michael, Brehm, John, and Wilson, Catherine. 2003. Uncertainty and American Public Opinion. In Uncertainty in American Politics, ed. Burden, Barry. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 161–85.Google Scholar
Aron, Raymond. 1966. Peace and War: A Theory of International Relations. New York: Praeger.Google Scholar
Baumgartner, Frank R., and Jones, Bryan D. 1993. Agendas and Instability in American Politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Baumgartner, Frank R., and Jones, Bryan D. 2005. The Politics of Attention: How Government Prioritizes Problems. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Bekaert, Geert, Harvey, Campbell R., and Ng, Angela. 2003. Market Integration and Contagion. NBER Working Paper.Google Scholar
Bénabou, Roland. 2000. Unequal Societies: Income Distribution and the Social Contract. American Economic Review 90: 96–129.Google Scholar
Brady, Henry E., and Collier, David, eds. 2004. Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards. New York: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Braumoeller, Bear F. 2003. Causal Complexity and the Study of Politics. Political Analysis 11: 209–33.Google Scholar
Buchinsky, Moshe. 1998. Recent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: A Practical Guideline for Empirical Research. Journal of Human Resources 33: 88–126.Google Scholar
Campbell, Donald T., and Stanley, Julian C. 1963. Experimental and Quasi-experimental Designs for Research. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Gleditsch, Kristian. 2004. Conquest and Regime Change: An Evolutionary Model of the Spread of Democracy and Peace. International Studies Quarterly 48: 603–29.Google Scholar
Cioffi-Revilla, Claudio. 1998. The Political Uncertainty of Interstate Rivalries: A Punctuated Equilibrium Model. In The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries, ed. Diehl, Paul. Urbana: University of Illinois Press, pp. 64–97.Google Scholar
Cook, Thomas D., and Campbell, Donald T. 1979. Quasi-experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Cortell, Andrew P., and Peterson, Susan. 1999. Altered States: Explaining Domestic Institutional Change. British Journal of Political Science 29: 177–203.Google Scholar
Diehl, Paul, and Goertz, Gary. 2000. War and Peace in International Rivalry. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Downs, George W., and Rocke, David M. 1979. Interpreting Heteroscedasticity. American Journal of Political Science 23: 816–28.Google Scholar
Eells, Ellery. 1991. Probabilistic Causality. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Eldredge, Niles, and Gould, Stephen Jay. 1972. Punctuated Equilibria: An Alternative to Phyletic Gradualism. In Models in Paleobiology, ed. Schopf, Thomas J. M. San Francisco: Freeman, Cooper, pp. 82–115.Google Scholar
Elster, Jon. 1989. Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Elster, Jon. 1998. A Plea For Mechanisms. In Social Mechanisms: An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, ed. Hedström, Peter and Swedberg, Richard, 45–73. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Enelow, James M., and Hinich, Melvin J. 1984. The Spatial Theory of Voting: An Introduction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B., and Stimson, James A. 1998. What Moves Macropartisanship? A Response to Green, Palmquist, and Schickler. American Political Science Review 92: 901–12.Google Scholar
Evans, Peter B., Jacobson, Harold K., and Putnam, Robert D., eds. 1993. Double-Edged Diplomacy: International Bargaining and Domestic Politics. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Fay, Brian. 1996. Contemporary Philosophy of Social Science: A Multicultural Approach. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Fearon, James G. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49: 379–414.Google Scholar
Finnemore, Martha, and Sikkink, Kathryn. 1998. International Norm Dynamics and Political Change. International Organization 52: 887–917.Google Scholar
Frankfort-Nachmias, Chava, and Nachmias, David. 1996. Research Methods in the Social Sciences, 5th ed. London: St. Martin's.Google Scholar
Freeman, John R., ed. 1996. Political Analysis, Vol. 6. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Friedman, Jeffrey, ed. 1996. The Rational Choice Controversy: Economic Models of Politics Reconsidered. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Frohlich, Norman, Oppenheimer, Joe A., and Eavey, Cheryl L. 1987. Choices of Principles of Distributive Justice in Experimental Groups. American Journal of Political Science 31: 606–36.Google Scholar
Gabel, Matthew J. 1998. Economic Integration and Mass Politics: Market Liberalization and Public Attitudes in the European Union. American Journal of Political Science 42: 936–53.Google Scholar
Gerring, John. 2001. Social Science Methodology: A Criterial Framework. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gilens, Martin. 2000. Why Americans Hate Welfare: Race, Media, and the Politics of Antipoverty Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Ginkel, John, and Smith, Alastair. 1999. So You Say You Want a Revolution: A Game Theoretic Explanation of Revolution in Repressive Regimes. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43: 291–316.Google Scholar
Glasgow, Garrett. 2005. Instability in Political Preferences Due to Ambivalence: A Reconsideration of Recent Evidence. Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Santa Barbara.Google Scholar
Glick, Reuven, and Rose, Andrew. 1999. Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional? Journal of International Money and Finance 18: 603–17.Google Scholar
Goertz, Gary. 1994. Contexts of International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Goertz, Gary, and Diehl, Paul. 1995. The Initiation and Termination of Enduring Rivalries: The Impact of Political Shocks. American Journal of Political Science 39: 30–52.Google Scholar
Goertz, Gary, and Regan, Patrick. 1997. Conflict Management in Enduring Rivalries. International Interactions 22: 321–40.Google Scholar
Goertz, Gary, and Starr, Harvey, eds. 2002. Necessary Conditions: Theory, Methodology, and Applications. New York: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Gould, Stephen Jay. 1996. Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin. New York: Three Rivers Press.Google Scholar
Govea, Rodger M., and West, Gerald T. 1981. Riot Contagion in Latin America, 1949–1963. Journal of Conflict Resolution 25: 349–68.Google Scholar
Green, Donald Philip, Palmquist, Bradley, and Schickler, Eric. 1998. Macropartisanship: A Replication and Critique. American Political Science Review 93: 883–99.Google Scholar
Greene, William H. 2000. Econometric Analysis, 4th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Grigorian, Arman. 2006. Harming When Unable to Help: Third Party Intervention and the Escalation of State-Minority Disputes. PhD diss., Columbia University.Google Scholar
Hall, Peter. 1986. Governing the Economy: The Politics of State Intervention in Britain and France. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Harvey, Andrew C. 1976. Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity. Econometrica 44: 461–65.Google Scholar
Hedström, Peter, and Swedberg, Richard, eds. 1998. Social Mechanisms: An Analytical Approach to Social Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hempel, Carl G. 1962. Explanation in Science and History. In Frontiers of Science and Philosophy, ed. Colodny, R. G., 7–33. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.Google Scholar
Hochschild, Jennifer. 1981. What's Fair? American Beliefs About Distributive Justice. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Hoover, K. D. 2003. Nonstationary Time Series, Cointegration, and the Principle of the Common Cause. British Journal of the Philosophy of Science 54: 527–51.Google Scholar
Hume, David. 2000/1739. A Treatise of Human Nature. Repr. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Iida, Keisuke. 1993. When and How Do Domestic Constraints Matter? Two-Level Games with Uncertainty. Journal of Conflict Resolution 37: 403–26.Google Scholar
Jackson, John E. 2002. A Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model for Analyzing Multiparty Elections. Political Analysis 10: 49–65.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1997. System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jones, Bryan D., Baumgartner, Frank R., and True, James L. 1998. Policy Punctuations: U.S. Budget Authority, 1947–1995. Journal of Politics 60: 1–33.Google Scholar
Kadera, Kelly M. 1998. Transmission, Barriers, and Constraints: A Dynamic Model of the Spread of War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42: 367–87.Google Scholar
Katz, Jonathan N., and King, Gary. 1999. A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data. American Political Science Review 93: 15–32.Google Scholar
Kermack, W. O., and McKendrick, A. G. 1927. A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London 115: 700–721.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. 1936. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. New York: Harcourt, Brace.Google Scholar
Kim, Jaegwon. 1965. Causes and Conditions. American Philosophical Quarterly 2: 245–64.Google Scholar
King, Gary. 1989a. Event Count Models for International Relations: Generalizations and Applications. International Studies Quarterly 33: 123–47.Google Scholar
King, Gary. 1989b. Variance Specification in Event Count Models: From Restrictive Assumptions to a Generalized Estimator. American Journal of Political Science 33: 762–84.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Keohane, Robert O., and Verba, Sidney. 1994. Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Krasner, Stephen. 1984. Approaches to the State: Alternative Conceptions and Historical Dynamics. Comparative Politics 16: 223–46.Google Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1991. Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989. World Politics 44: 7–48.Google Scholar
Lepingwell, John W. R. 1987. The Laws of Combat? Lanchester Reexamined. International Security 12: 89–134.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack S. 1982. The Contagion of Great Power War Behavior, 1495–1975. American Journal of Political Science 26: 562–84.Google Scholar
Lewis, David. 1973. Causation. Journal of Philosophy 70: 556–67.Google Scholar
Lissowski, Grzegorz, Tyszka, Tadeusz, and Okrasa, Wlodzimierz. 1991. Principles of Distributive Justice: Experiments in Poland and America. Journal of Conflict Resolution 35: 98–119.Google Scholar
Little, Daniel. 1991. Varieties of Social Explanation: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science. Boulder, CO: Westview.Google Scholar
Lohmann, Susanne. 1994. The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989–91. World Politics 47: 42–101.Google Scholar
Mackie, John L. 1965. Causes and Conditions. American Philosophical Quarterly 2: 245–64.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A. 1989. Macropartisanship. American Political Science Review 83: 1125–42.Google Scholar
March, James G., and Olsen, Johan P. 1998. The Institutional Dynamics of International Political Orders. International Organization 52: 943–69.Google Scholar
Martin, Lisa L. 1994. Positive Feedback in International Coalitions: Explanation and Measurement. Harvard University Center for International Affairs Working Paper.Google Scholar
Martin, Lisa L., and Simmons, Beth. 1998. Theories and Empirical Studies of International Institutions. International Organization 52: 729–57.Google Scholar
Matland, Richard E., and Studlar, Donley T. 1996. The Contagion of Women Candidates in Single-Member District and Proportional Electoral Systems: Canada and Norway. Journal of Politics 58: 707–33.Google Scholar
McKelvey, Richard D. 1986. Covering, Dominance, and Institution-Free Properties of Social Choice. American Journal of Political Science 30: 283–314.Google Scholar
McShea, Daniel W. 1993. Evolutionary Change in the Morphological Complexity of the Mammalian Vertabral Column. Evolution 47: 730–40.Google Scholar
McShea, Daniel W. 1994. Mechanisms of Large-Scale Evolutionary Trends. Evolution 48: 1747–63.Google Scholar
Mebane, Walter Jr., and Sekhon, Jasjeet S. 2004. Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data. American Journal of Political Science 48: 391–410.Google Scholar
Midlarsky, Manus I. 1978. Analyzing Diffusion and Contagion Effects: The Urban Disorders of the 1960s. American Political Science Review 72: 996–1008.Google Scholar
Midlarsky, Manus I. 1988. Rulers and the Ruled: Patterned Inequality and the Onset of Mass Political Violence. American Political Science Review 82: 491–509.Google Scholar
Mill, John Stewart. 1865. System of Logic. London: Longmans, Green.Google Scholar
Miller, Nicholas R. 1980. A New Solution Set for Tournaments and Majority Voting: Further Graph-Theoretical Approaches to the Theory of Voting. American Journal of Political Science 24: 68–96.Google Scholar
Milner, Helen. 1998. Rationalizing Politics: The Emerging Synthesis of International, American, and Comparative Politics. International Organization 52: 759–86.Google Scholar
Moravcsik, Andrew. 1995. Explaining International Human Rights Regimes: Liberal Theory and Western Europe. European Journal of International Relations 1: 157–89.Google Scholar
Morris, Christopher W., ed. 1999. The Social Contract Theorists: Critical Essays on Hobbes, Locke, and Rousseau. New York: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Most, Benjamin, and Starr, Harvey. 1980. Diffusion, Reinforcement, Geopolitics, and the Spread of War. American Political Science Review 74: 932–46.Google Scholar
Mueller, Dennis C. 1997. Perspectives on Public Choice. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Muller, Edward N., and Seligson, Mitchell A. 1987. Inequality and Insurgency. American Political Science Review 81: 425–52.Google Scholar
Nicholson, Michael. 1983. The Scientific Analysis of Social Behaviour: A Defence of Empiricism in Social Science. London: Frances Pinter.Google Scholar
Pearl, Judea. 2000. Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Persson, Torsten, Roland, Gérard, and Tabellini, Guido. 2000. Comparative Politics and Public Finance. Journal of Political Economy 108: 1121–61.Google Scholar
Pratt, Vernon. 1978. The Philosophy of the Social Sciences. London: Methuen.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert. 1988. Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games. International Organization 42: 427–60.Google Scholar
Ragin, Charles. 1987. The Comparative Method: Moving beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Ragin, Charles. 2000. Fuննy-Set Social Science. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Rawls, John. 1971. A Theory of Justice. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Rigobon, Roberto. 2001. Contagion: How to Measure It? NBER Working Paper.Google Scholar
Rosenbaum, Paul R. 2002. Observational Studies. Springer Series in Statistics, 2nd ed. New York: Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
Ruben, David-Hillel, ed. 1993. Explanation. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Rubin, Donald. 1974. Estimating Causal Effects of Treatments in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies. Journal of Educational Psychology 66: 688–701.Google Scholar
Rubinstein, Ariel. 1982. Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model. Econometrica 50: 97–109.Google Scholar
Ruggie, John Gerard. 1998. What Makes the World Hang Together? Neo-utilitarianism and the Social Constructivist Challenge. International Organization 52: 855–85.Google Scholar
Salmon, Wesley. 1998. Causality and Explanation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Scott, John T., Matland, Richard E., Michelbach, Philip A., and Bornstein, Brian H. 2001. Just Deserts: An Experimental Study of Distributive Justice Norms. American Journal of Political Science 45: 749–67.Google Scholar
Sekhon, Jasjeet S. 2004. Updating Voters: How Cues and Heuristics Allow Voters to Act as if They Were Informed. Unpublished manuscript, Harvard University.Google Scholar
Sigelman, Lee, and Simpson, Miles. 1977. A Cross-National Test of the Linkage between Economic Inequality and Political Violence. Journal of Conflict Resolution 21: 105–28.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth, and Elkins, Zachary. 2004. The Globalization of Liberalization: Policy Diffusion in the International Political Economy. American Political Science Review 98: 171–89.Google Scholar
Simowitz, Roslyn. 1998. Evaluating Conflict Research on the Diffusion of War. Journal of Peace Research 35: 211–30.Google Scholar
Skocpol, Theda. 1979. States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair, and Stam, Allan C. 2004. Bargaining and the Nature of War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48: 783–813.Google Scholar
Snyder, Jack. 1991. Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Sosa, Ernest, and Tooley, Michael, eds. 2001. Causation. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Spruyt, Hendrik. 1994. The Sovereign State and Its Competitors. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Spruyt, Hendrik. 2001. Diversity or Uniformity in the Modern World? Answers from Evolutionary Theory, Learning, and Social Adaptation. In Evolutionary Interpretations of World Politics, ed. Thompson, William R., 110–32. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Stinchcombe, Arthur L. 1968. Constructing Social Theories. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Stinnett, Douglas M., and Diehl, Paul. 2001. The Path(s) to Rivalry: Behavioral and Structural Explanations of Rivalry Development. Journal of Politics 63: 717–40.Google Scholar
Suppes, Patrick. 1970. A Probabilistic Theory of Causality. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Taylor, James G. 1983. Lanchester Models of Warfare. Arlington, VA: Operations Research Society of America.Google Scholar
Tetlock, Philip E., and Belkin, Aaron, eds. 1996. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 1990. Coercion, Capital, and European States. Cambridge: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael, Tucker, Joshua A., and Wittenberg, Jason. 2002. An Easy and Accurate Regression Model for Multiparty Data. Political Analysis 10: 66–83.Google Scholar
Tsebelis, George. 1999. Veto Players and Law Production in Parliamentary Democracy: An Empirical Analysis. American Political Science Review 93: 591–608.Google Scholar
von Wright, G. H. 1971. Explanation and Understanding. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Wagner, R. Harrison. 2000. Bargaining and War. American Journal of Political Science 44: 469–84.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Ward, Michael D., and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede. 2002. Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace. Political Analysis 10: 244–60.Google Scholar
Yuchtman-Yaar, Ephraim, and Hermann, Tamar. 1998. The Latitude of Acceptance: Israeli Attitudes toward Political Protest Before and After the Assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. Journal of Conflict Resolution 42: 721–43.Google Scholar