On forecasting the onset of Solar Proton Events

Abstract

A major problem for predicting the onset of Solar Proton Events is the detection of the magnetic connection between the flare and the earth. If there is a magnetic connection, the particles accelerated by a large solar event may impact the earth and produce the onset of a solar energetic proton event. Current physical models cannot predict the onset of a SPE mainly because of the chaotic conditions within the IMF structure. Kiplinger (1995) reported a high correlation between the existence of 10 MeV protons at Earth and a characteristic pattern of X-ray spectral evolution for several associated flares. We propose a practical approach that tries to detect the time intervals of this correlation. Our assumption is that a high correlation betwewn X-ray and protons at Earth is an important symptom of a magnetic connection and may help to prevent Solar Proton Events.