Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-30T21:38:54.708Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Battlefield Casualties and Ballot-Box Defeat: Did the Bush–Obama Wars Cost Clinton the White House?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 January 2020

Douglas L. Kriner Open the ORCID record for Douglas L. Kriner [Opens in a new window]  and
Francis X. Shen Open the ORCID record for Francis X. Shen [Opens in a new window]
Douglas L. Kriner
Affiliation:
Cornell University
Francis X. Shen
Affiliation:
University of Minnesota
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In the 2016 election, foreign policy may have played a critically important role in swinging an important constituency to Donald Trump: voters in high-casualty communities that had abandoned Republican candidates in the mid-2000s. Trump’s iconoclastic campaign rhetoric promised a foreign policy that would simultaneously be more muscular and restrained. He promised to rebuild and refocus the military while avoiding the “stupid wars” and costly entanglements of his predecessors. At both the state and county levels, we find significant and substantively meaningful relationships between local casualty rates and support for Trump. Trump made significant electoral gains among constituencies that were exhausted and politically alienated by 18 years of fighting. Trump’s foreign policy shows a president beset by competing militaristic and isolationist impulses. Our results suggest that giving into the former may come at a significant electoral cost.

Type
Article
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 53 , Issue 2 , April 2020 , pp. 248 - 252
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2020 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Allen, Jonathan, and Parnes, Amie. 2017. Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign. New York: Crown Publishing Group.Google Scholar
Althaus, Scott L., Bramlett, Brittany H., and Gimpel, James G.. 2012. “When War Hits Home: The Geography of Military Losses and Support for War in Time and Space.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 56 (3): 382–412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ball, Molly. 2016. “Why Hillary Clinton Lost.” The Atlantic, November 15. Available at www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/why-hillary-clinton-lost/507704.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E., et al. 2017. “A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (02): 331–38.Google Scholar
Comey, James. 2018. A Higher Loyalty: Truth, Lies, and Leadership. New York: Flatiron Books.Google Scholar
Cotton, Timothy Y. C. 1986. “War and American Democracy: Electoral Costs of the Last Five Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 30 (4): 616–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund, and Segura, Gary M.. 2000. “Race, Casualties, and Opinion in the Vietnam War.” Journal of Politics 62 (1): 115–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund, and Segura, Gary M.. 2008. “All Politics Are Still Local: The Iraq War and the 2006 Midterm Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (1): 95–100.Google Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund, Segura, Gary M., and Barratt, Bethany A.. 2004. “War Casualties, Policy Positions, and the Fate of Legislators.” Political Research Quarterly 57 (3): 467– 77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund, Segura, Gary M., and Wilkening, Michael. 1997. “All Politics Are Local: Losses and Individual Attitudes toward the Vietnam War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (5): 669– 94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grose, Christian R., and Oppenheimer, Bruce I.. 2007. “The Iraq War, Partisanship, and Candidate Attributes: Variation in Partisan Swing in the 2006 US House Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 32 (4): 531– 57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guo, Jeff. 2016. “A New Theory for Why Trump Voters Are So Angry—That Actually Makes Sense.” Washington Post, November 8. Available at www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/08/a-new-theory-for-why-trump-voters-are-so-angry-that-actually-makes-sense.Google Scholar
Hayes, Andrew F., and Myers, Teresa A.. 2009. “Testing the ‘Proximate Casualties Hypothesis’: Local Troop Loss, Attention to News, and Support for Military Intervention.” Mass Communication and Society 12 (4): 379–402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbs, Douglas A. 2000. “Bread and Peace Voting in US Presidential Elections.” Public Choice 104 (1/2): 149– 80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsti, Ole R. 1998. “A Widening Gap Between the US Military and Civilian Society? Some Evidence, 1976–96.” International Security 23 (3): 5–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Karol, David, and Miguel, Edward. 2007. “Iraq War Casualties and the 2004 US Presidential Election.” Journal of Politics 69 (3): 633–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriner, Douglas L., and Shen, Francis X.. 2007. “Iraq Casualties and the 2006 Senate Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 32 (4): 507–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriner, Douglas L., and Shen, Francis X.. 2009. “Limited War and American Political Engagement.” Journal of Politics 71 (4): 1514–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriner, Douglas L., and Shen, Francis X.. 2010. The Casualty Gap: The Causes and Consequences of American Wartime Inequalities. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kriner, Douglas L., and Shen, Francis X.. 2016. “Invisible Inequality: The Two Americas of Military Sacrifice.” University of Memphis Law Review 46 (3): 545–635.Google Scholar
Mueller, John. 2005. “The Iraq Syndrome.” Foreign Affairs 84 (6): 44–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schafer, Amy. 2017. Generations of War: The Rise of the Warrior-Caste and the All-Volunteer Force. Washington, DC: Center for a New American Security.Google Scholar
Scherer, Scherer, Jaffe, Greg, and Dawsey, Josh. 2018. “In Private Chat with Senator, Trump Hints at Policy Shift in Afghanistan.” Washington Post, April 30. Available at www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-private-chat-with-senator-trump-hints-at-policy-shift-in-afghanistan-and-a-return-to-isolationism/2018/04/30/e0e9b1ec-4995-11e8-827e-190efaf1f1ee_story.html.Google Scholar
Schiller, Brad. 2016. “Why Did Trump Win? The Economy, Stupid.” Los Angeles Times, November 9. Available at www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-schiller-trump-victory-economy-20161109-story.html.Google Scholar
Szayna, Thomas S., et al. 2007. The Civil-Military Gap in the United States: Does It Exist, Why, and Does It Matter? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar