The presidency of Donald J. Trump constitutes a scholarly enterprise that is far from settled, given his combination of potential criminal indictments and front-runner status in the upcoming GOP primaries. The dominant theme of The Trump Effect is the disruption presented by Trump’s presidency to the public, institutions, and policy. Each chapter evaluates a piece of the disruptive presidency and its lasting consequences.
The book has three parts. The first three chapters detail the disruptive consequences of Trump’s presidency for the public, parties, and the media. Chapter 1, by Todd Eberly, discusses Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 with a populist appeal made primarily to those who did not trust government, producing surprise victories in states like Michigan and Wisconsin. However, Trump’s disruption of this group of the electorate did not last. Joe Biden, a demonstrably more likable candidate than either candidate in 2016, carried this group by more than 40 points in 2020. In chapter 2, David Hopkins examines Trump’s disruptions to both major parties and the lasting consequences for each. He argues that Trump served as an accelerant to already occurring partisan changes. Non-college-educated whites carried Trump to surprising victories in the Upper Midwest, but they were already leaning Republican, a process that Trump’s focus on culture wars sped up. Meanwhile, Trump’s focus on cultural issues increased the broadening of representation among Democrats in Congress, electing more women and people of color while appealing more to urban and suburban voters. Essentially, Trump again served as an accelerant to the two parties’ already diverging paths, fueling the sharpening of contrasts between red and blue areas. Chapter 3, written by Diana Owen, evaluates Trump’s disruptive relationship with the media, again finding evidence that Trump served to accelerate existing patterns. Trump’s around-the-clock Twitter activity produced insults, policy positions, and changes in executive branch personnel, accelerating the media use of “churnalism”: consistent coverage of an omnipresent source. The media coverage of Trump, which focused mainly on his personality, returned quickly back to normal when it focused on Joe Biden’s policy positions.
The second section of the book deals with Trump’s disruptions of institutions. Kathryn Pearson explores Trump’s accomplishments with Congress. As Pearson notes, Donald Trump signed an expected number of bills into law during the 115th Congress, exploiting unified government for major priorities such as tax cuts, deregulation, and judicial nominations. However, Pearson demonstrates that Trump was loath to get directly involved in the details of legislation, instead deferring to leaders in Congress to accomplish broader agenda goals. Further, Trump failed to accomplish major agenda items such as a repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act and constructing the promised border wall. Importantly, Trump served as an accelerant to polarization in congressional politics, coupling overwhelming support among congressional Republicans with a lack of support among Democrats. The continued presence of Trumpism in the GOP may make reversing this trend difficult.
In chapter 5, Karen M. Hult examines Trump’s disruption of the executive branch. Trump’s management style demanded loyalty and produced extraordinary turnover. His fractured relationship with the establishment in the GOP made it difficult to tap experts for key positions. For Hult, Trump’s tendency to eschew political appointments and stability in key positions, as well as his unilateral accomplishments focused on deregulation through executive action, could easily be undone by his successor. However, Hult argues that Trump’s disruptive executive branch management, particularly the mishandling of COVID-19, did reinforce the importance of expertise within this branch . Additionally, Trump’s actions toward civil servants represented career threats that would continue to loom depending on future election results. The reinforced need for expertise was juxtaposed against taking threatening actions against career civil servants, either of which could have long-lasting and disruptive implications.
In chapter 6, Nancy Maveety examines Trump’s judicial agenda. Here, Maveety illustrates Trump’s likely most long-lasting legacy: the disruption of federal judicial ideology. He appointed an astounding 234 federal justices, including 3 to the Supreme Court. Trump, in consultation with the Federalist Society, published a list of potential Supreme Court Justices during his campaign. Thanks in large part to Mitch McConnell’s Senate leadership during both the Obama and Trump presidencies, Trump was given the opportunity to fill many open seats. Appointing a large swath of ideological and young justices with life terms will likely produce a lasting disruption to the federal judiciary.
The third part of the book focuses on Trump’s policy legacy. In chapter 7, Andrew Busch explores Trump’s domestic policy. Political victories for conservatives include tax cuts, reductions in illegal immigration, and a list of executive actions aimed at deregulation, with only the latter being easily rolled back by President Biden. However, Trump also took policy positions unorthodox to Republicans, including criminal justice reform and a general lack of concern for the federal budget, which had extraordinary consequences for the national debt. Trump’s ability to disrupt conservative principles beyond his presidency depends on Republicans’ continued adherence to Trumpism, which could have positive implications for the GOP’s courting of the African American vote and negative implications for reducing the national debt.
Finally, Steven Schier provides an analysis of Trump’s disruptive foreign policy. He details how Trump’s America First approach led to several disruptive foreign policy issues throughout his term. From promising a border wall that Mexico would pay for, eschewing long-held alliances and international agreements, and normalizing relations with adversaries, Trump’s approach to foreign policy was among the most disruptive aspects of his presidency. Schier argues that early evidence from the Biden administration demonstrates an effort to restore normalcy in foreign policy, which has been met with a cool reception based on the threat of electoral results leading to further disruption. The potential is there for a lasting disruption of foreign policy due to its dependence on electoral results.
In summary, this book includes variegated perspectives from qualified scholars who break Trump’s disruptive presidency and its consequences into manageable pieces. It is accessible to students and would make a strong addition to courses on the presidency generally or on Trump’s presidency, in particular. It is also a strong addition to the shelves of scholars of American politics, as we continue to evaluate this unorthodox presidency. As this book shows, many of Trump’s accomplishments came through executive actions, which can be undone over time with future executive action. However, Trump’s presidency produced successes for his fellow partisans. His tax cuts have not been fully scaled back, and his judicial appointments have the potential to reshape the federal judiciary for decades. As such, this book contributes invaluable insights regarding Trump’s political disruption and lack thereof. The extent to which Trump accelerated dangerous processes, including the polarization of parties in Congress and the electorate based on culture wars, is expertly detailed in this book and makes a tremendous yet troubling contribution to the field of American politics.
