This paper examines first a statistical modelling of the number of navigational accidents (collisons, groundings and strikings) involving tankers and freighters in Canadian waters; it then looks at a direct method of modelling oil spill frequency and magnitude, given a navigational accident. The former is used to examine various hypotheses in the literature regarding the impact of various factors on navigational risk. The latter is based on a direct probability tree analysis which allows the estimation of detailed oil spill impacts by facilitating the examination of representative spill sizes.
