A variety of operational systems are vulnerable to disruption by solar disturbances brought
to the Earth by the solar wind. Of particular importance to navigation systems are energetic
charged particles which can generate temporary malfunctions and permanent damage in
satellites. Modern spacecraft technology may prove to be particularly at risk during the next
maximum of the solar cycle. In addition, the associated ionospheric disturbances cause phase
shifts of transionospheric and ionosphere-reflected signals, giving positioning errors and loss
of signal for GPS and Loran-C positioning systems and for over-the-horizon radars. We now
have sufficient understanding of the solar wind, and how it interacts with the Earth's
magnetic field, to predict statistically the likely effects on operational systems over the next
solar cycle. We also have a number of advanced ways of detecting and tracking these
disturbances through space but we cannot, as yet, provide accurate forecasts of individual
disturbances that could be used to protect satellites and to correct errors. In addition, we
have recently discovered long-term changes in the Sun, which mean that the number and
severity of the disturbances to operational systems are increasing.