In this paper, a quantitative study is made of the determination of the level of a vessel traffic management system (VTMS) in a port. Also established is a mathematical model, which conforms to the actual situation in Chinese ports and which takes account of the ideas contributed by experts in relevant fields. With the help of the model, the port needs for VTMS are evaluated in a comprehensive and objective way, the overall levels of VTMS are determined and their corresponding standards set. A computer simulation verification has proven the effectiveness of the model.

The present-day emphasis on the need to analyse and identify risk situations in ports is hardly a new phenomenon. In fact, port managements have, as a matter of course, been very conscious of this need but over the years, with the ever-increasing transport by sea of hazardous hydrocarbon, chemical as well as nuclear-related products, this need has simply become much more pronounced. Moreover, present-day public awareness and concern about the possible incident impact on the environment in the form of pollution or personal injury has even further increased the awareness of the corporate responsibility and the need to assess the operational risk levels of ports. Of equal importance, of course, is the need and the capability to predict operational risk levels for new port developments or modification projects or of the possible risks associated with the introduction of hazardous cargo-handling facilities at existing or new port terminals.