Scoring rules measure the deviation between a forecast, which assigns degrees of confidence to various events, and reality. Strictly proper scoring rules have the property that for any forecast, the mathematical expectation of the score of a forecast p by the lights of p is strictly better than the mathematical expectation of any other forecast q by the lights of p. Forecasts need not satisfy the axioms of the probability calculus, but Predd et al. [9] have shown that given a finite sample space and any strictly proper additive and continuous scoring rule, the score for any forecast that does not satisfy the axioms of probability is strictly dominated by the score for some probabilistically consistent forecast. Recently, this result has been extended to non-additive continuous scoring rules. In this paper, a condition weaker than continuity is given that suffices for the result, and the condition is proved to be optimal.

Tree trace reconstruction aims to learn the binary node labels of a tree, given independent samples of the tree passed through an appropriately defined deletion channel. In recent work, Davies, Rácz, and Rashtchian [10] used combinatorial methods to show that $\exp({\mathrm{O}} (k \log_{k} n))$ samples suffice to reconstruct a complete k-ary tree with n nodes with high probability. We provide an alternative proof of this result, which allows us to generalize it to a broader class of tree topologies and deletion models. In our proofs we introduce the notion of a subtrace, which enables us to connect with and generalize recent mean-based complex analytic algorithms for string trace reconstruction.

We study distance properties of a general class of random directed acyclic graphs (dags). In a dag, many natural notions of distance are possible, for there exist multiple paths between pairs of nodes. The distance of interest for circuits is the maximum length of a path between two nodes. We give laws of large numbers for the typical depth (distance to the root) and the minimum depth in a random dag. This completes the study of natural distances in random dags initiated (in the uniform case) by Devroye and Janson. We also obtain large deviation bounds for the minimum of a branching random walk with constant branching, which can be seen as a simplified version of our main result.