Some UK insurers have been using real-world economic scenarios for more than 30 years. Popular approaches have included random walks, time series models, arbitrage-free models with added risk premiums or 1-year Value at Risk distribution fits. Based on interviews with experienced practitioners as well as historical documents and meeting minutes, this paper traces historical model evolution in the United Kingdom and abroad. We examine the possible catalysts for changes in modelling practice with a particular emphasis on regulatory and socio-cultural influences. We apply past lessons to provide some guidance to the direction of capital market modelling in future, which has been key for business and strategy decisions.

From 1870, in the United Kingdom, a generally liberal legal framework for life insurance existed which commanded wide support, particularly from the actuarial profession. Despite its apparent liberalism, however, it is likely that the regulatory framework impeded market entry, particularly of mutual companies. The liberal framework broke down in a number of incremental steps from 1946. This paper traces the development of U.K. life assurance regulation for 101 years from the mid-Victorian period, analyses contemporary reflections on the legal framework within the actuarial profession, and examines the appropriateness of the legal framework for achieving specific economic objectives for long-term insurance regulation.