The Harmer–Henry pension and tax review resulted in an increase in the common value of the single rate of Age Pension and Disability Support Pension from 25 per cent to 28 per cent of male total average weekly earnings. It also recommended a Resource Super Profits Tax that would have initially taxed mining ‘rents' at 36 per cent, on top of the pre-existing 30 per cent federal tax on profits. These recommendations represent two sides of the same coin: higher federal spending alongside higher federal taxes. The pension rise is likely to reduce participation in the labour force. The proposed tax rise would discourage mining activity as miners considered their options to delay or abandon projects. There is a lot to like at the level of detail in the Harmer–Henry package, but future efforts to reform our tax-transfer system should focus on promoting saving and investment, including investment in human capital.

The retirement systems in many developed countries have been increasingly moving from defined benefit towards defined contribution system. In defined contribution systems, financial and longevity risks are shifted from pension providers to retirees. In this paper, we use a probabilistic approach to analyse the uncertainty associated with superannuation accumulation and decumulation. We apply an economic scenario generator called the Simulation of Uncertainty for Pension Analysis (SUPA) model to project uncertain future financial and economic variables. This multi-factor stochastic investment model, based on the Monte Carlo method, allows us to obtain the probability distribution of possible outcomes regarding the superannuation accumulation and decumulation phases, such as relevant percentiles. We present two examples to demonstrate the implementation of the SUPA model for the uncertainties during both phases under the current superannuation and Age Pension policy, and test two superannuation policy reforms suggested by the Grattan Institute.